Monday Miscellany and Open Thread

"Sometime Around Midnight" - Airborne Toxic Event

Work once again seriously interfering with my web time. 

- It's official -- Mitt is at 47%! I continue to obsessively monitor the election results as the final tallies roll in.  Obama's lead continues to grow -- it is now 4,360,000 votes, which puts him at 50.85% to Romney's 47.43%. Total turnout is now down by only 2.96%, with 127,424,299 votes cast versus 131,313,820, a decrease of about 3.4 million.  Half of that total -- just over 1.7 million votes -- is attributable to voter downturn in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.  (Votes are still being counted there, so this could change.)  Again, this is probably going to cost Obama about 1 million votes and another 300,000 in margin over Romney.  In the swing states Obama outperformed his national vote, with a 3.95% spread versus 3.14% in the non-swing states.  For the second election in a row, Virginia almost precisely replicated the national vote percentages -- 51.16% for Obama (versus 50.85% nationally) and 47.28% for Romney (versus 47.43% nationally) -- the closest state to the national results just as it was in 2008.  

- One of the things that puzzled me throughout the election season was the smug certainty among right wing commentators and certain pollsters -- yeah I'm looking at you Gallup -- that turnout among black voters would be lower in 2012 than it was in 2008.  There was a patronizing sense that surely black voters were disenchanted and disappointed with Obama.  (I always felt that this sentiment was much more the province of a certain class of white male liberals.)   There were two things that convinced me that the black vote for Obama would be huge once again.  First, was the incredible disrespect and hostility directed at Obama by the Republicans from the first day he took office -- this had to stick in the craw of people who had taken pride in a historic first only to see a man who had won a landslide victory treated as less legitimate than George W. Bush after his highly dubious win in 2000 (following which Democrats in Congress worked with him to pass a variety of measures).  (This post at TPM captures some of that feeling.)  Second, was the outrageous array of voter suppression tactics adopted by Republicans across the country, from voter ID measures to shortening or eliminating early voting.  In so doing, the GOP screwed with a right that had been won with the blood of martyrs.  Maybe this didn't resonate with the Frank Newports or Karl Roves of the world, but I suspect that most people in the black community are painfully aware of the very real price paid to win access to the ballot.  By their actions, the Republicans made clear to blacks that they were deemed less worthy voters -- and by implication less worthy Americans.   We know who got the last laugh.

What say you?      

Comments

[Joe S]

FYI, there's an excellent bloggingheads episode with Mike Konczal and Jeremy Kessler regarding the aggressive new conservative legal challenge to the welfare state using a revived commerce clause jurisprudence. If anybody wants to see why I see the dissent in the ACA litigation (and to a lesser extent, the Roberts concurrence) as a revival of the Lochner Era, watch this episode.

[oddjob]

Dems. talk up filibuster changes and to no one's surprise Miss Mitch has a sad.

[low-tech cyclist]

SC - work is interfering with my Web time in a major way, too, so I can relate. But I share your joy in seeing Romney firmly ensconced at 47% of the vote. He and that number will be forever linked, and nobody can say he didn't earn it.

I hear that there's some Village chatter going on for Jeb in 2016. I'm good with that - eight years won't be sufficient for people to forget what a craptastic President his brother was.

In other news, Republican (and Tea Party favorite) SC Gov. Nikki Haley is demanding new Federal mandates.

The story goes like this: South Carolina's entire tax record system got hacked this year, resulting in the exposure of records of more than 3.8 million individual filers, 1.9 million dependents, and 700,000 business tax filers, plus 3.3 million unencrypted bank account numbers of those tax filers.

A report on the cyberattack "cited two basic security flaws: the failure of state workers to use multiple passwords to obtain sensitive data and the failure by the state to encrypt sensitive tax data."

Haley blamed the breach in part on the IRS' not unequivocally requiring states to encrypt Social Security numbers, and she's written the IRS, demanding them to require all states to have stronger security measures for handling tax information.

There was nothing stopping her state from encrypting Social Security numbers, bank account numbers, etc., but it's all the IRS' fault for not mandating her to do so. Way to take personal responsibility, Gov. Ditzbrain!

[oddjob]

(History trivia for l-tc:

As I'm reading the paper during lunch today I learn that on this date in 1839 the American Statistical Association was founded. :) )

[kathy a.]

oddjob, you make me smile every time you mention miss mitch.

ltc -- that's a beauty of a story from south carolina, the state where the civil war began "when the yankees fired back."

[Eric Wilde]

There was a patronizing sense that surely black voters were disenchanted and disappointed with Obama. (I always felt that this sentiment was much more the province of a certain class of white male liberals.)

I fall squarely into that demographic of white male liberal who is disenchanted with Obama; but, not nearly disenchanted enough to lose my marbles and take anything Republicans say as truth. There really was no question as to whom would make the better POTUS. Now, if we can just do away with gerrymandering then we might be able to actually get something accomplished with our federal government.

[Eric Wilde]

I realized after posting that my last comment was somewhat tongue-in-cheek about the feds not getting anything accomplished and more an expression of frustration with Congress. We actually had a fair bit accomplished by the last administration.

[kathy a.]

boehner is once again demonstrating his love of country by threatening that the price for obama winning is that he will risk national and international crisis over the freaking debt ceiling. is hostage-taking one of those american values that they are always yammering on about?

[low-tech cyclist]

kathy - it's American exceptionalism in action! What other country has a major party that says it loves its country so much that they'll blow it up if it isn't exceptional in exactly the way they insist it be?

[low-tech cyclist]

kathy - I earned my doctorate at the University of South Carolina, so I'm familiar with the entertainment that the Cradle of the Confederacy can provide. For instance, who can forget Gov. Mark Sanford going from Presidential prospect to has-been when he went 'hiking on the Appalachian Trail'?

[oddjob]

the state where the civil war began "when the yankees fired back."

"The more things change", and all that...

[kathy a.]

oh, ltc. you must remember charlie condon, the AG who advocated "an electric couch" so as to move things faster. gov. sanford was just stupider than some. but political and stupid are not necessarily mutually exclusive in the palmetto state. (among other states.)

my sincere condolences on spending substantial time in the city where "you can't beat our cocks" bumperstickers were considered an appropriate demonstration of devotion to the football team.

oddjob -- i stole that line. charleston is a tourist town; some of the more charming horse carriage operators used it when there were yankee tourists on board. ;)

[kathy a.]

ohio senate is not having a vote on fetal heartbeat legislation. and that is my sigh of relief you hear.

this one marker, signaling that a 6-8 week fetus has this one part developing? that does not at all mean this is a being that can survive independently, or that there are no abnormalities; does not mean there are parents willing or able to care for a potential child.

i love children, truly. and it makes me furious that this kind of legislation is being pushed -- yes, it is, as part of an agenda in many states -- to put the "rights" of a tiny unformed fetus ahead of those of a fully developed woman who might be carrying this fetal material.

when my parents were born, even -- no so very long ago in human terms -- lots and lots of children died; lots of mothers did, too, from pregnancy and childbirth. miscarriages remain common, but were more common then. babies died -- frequently. mothers died -- often enough. humans are designed to have more babies than we need, because so many died of malformations, diseases, infections -- starvation, even. in the lifetime of my parents, so much changed.

two things that ought to be given a lot of credit are safe and effective birth control, and safe and effective abortions. i support both.

[beckya57]

I'm with Sir C on the black vote. I was really impressed with all the people that stood in lines for hours to vote, and a lot of them were minorities.

I really hope the "fiscal cliff" (can't we get a better term for that??) deal includes abolishing the debt ceiling. When children start hitting each other and not playing nice with their toys you need to take them away.

[oddjob]

charleston is a tourist town

I would move there if it wasn't in South Carolina. :)

[oddjob]

babies died -- frequently. mothers died -- often enough.

Unlike with most animals, the head of a human baby at birth is so large it barely fits through the birth canal, so yes, childbirth is dangerous.

[kathy a.]

being a snotty native californian, i thought i would hate living in charleston. but that one city manages to have southern charm and history without so very much of the extreme qualities of, you know, everyplace else in south carolina.

one time in court -- i was a public defender -- one of my clients was pleading guilty to a reduced charge, and he brought a couple of people to be character witnesses at his sentencing. one was a lovely old lady, a family friend named septima clark . being a stupid yankee, i was surprised that everyone in the courtroom knew and was in awe of her. miss clark had been a schoolteacher, and she spearheaded a NAACP literacy effort, to defeat the literacy tests that were used to keep black people from voting. a hero.

there is nothing i will do in my lifetime that will make so much difference to so many. but surely, we each can try. surely, we can find the patience and humility to keep trying, in the ways we can.

[kathy a.]

about childbearing. true story: one of the other mothers in my lamaze class died of an amniotic fluid embolism -- a rare complication. she could not be saved; her daughter was delivered under emergency circumstances at the cusp of survivability.

that was pretty freaking sobering. i was going to drop out of lamze, because my son was in a bad position and could not be moved, so we planned a c-section. (a blessing of modern diagnostics, that we knew in advance.) but we went to that one last class in solidarity. nobody will ever convince me that childbearing is a minimal inconvenience, for these and many other reasons.

[oddjob]

Top Romney adviser writes an ugly op-ed:

Mitt Romney can take at least some solace in his devastating loss on Nov. 6: at least he won the voters who really count.

That’s the thesis anyway of top adviser Stuart Stevens, who penned an op-ed in the Washington Post on Wednesday arguing that by winning wealthier and whiter voters, Romney secured the moral victory over Obama....

[kathy a.]

HAAhahahaha! heckuva spin, team mitt.

meanwhile, back at the governance farm: even the wall street journal editorial board is barking at grover norquist's trained pooches, advising something along the lines of "wake up and smell the coffee."

via balloon juice, ezra thinks old grover "won" because we are still talking about whether to raise taxes. and i think -- that's yesterday's news. sure, we are still stuck with paddling out of the norquist memorial swamp of stupidity, but in my opinion, we gained all these useful paddles in the recent national event.

[low-tech cyclist]

I was amused: Stevens said Romney won all groups except those with household incomes under $50,000, which meant Romney won the middle class.

Median household income in the U.S. in 2011 was $50,054.* So roughly half of the middle class, as well as roughly half the U.S. population, was in that group Romney lost.

And obviously Romney lost under-$50K voters by a bigger margin than he won over-$50K voters.

*Per U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2011, p.5. Census Bureau press release with that stat here since you don't want the whole PDF. (The press release has a link if you do.)

[Crissa]

Romney sure didn't win the +50K$ voters in my county.

[oddjob]

even the wall street journal editorial board is barking at grover norquist's trained pooches, advising something along the lines of "wake up and smell the coffee."

And you know they're in trouble if the WSJ editorial board is telling them to wake up and smell the coffee!

[nancy]

Open thread --I don't know the real story here, but the image is sweetly wonderful. Made me smile.

***

[low-tech cyclist]

And Virginia's 2013 gubernatorial race just got rather interesting:

1) Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, Gov. Bob "Ultrasound" McDonnell's handpicked successor, dropped out of the race for the GOP nomination, pretty much handing the nomination to wingnut AG Ken Cuccinelli.

2) Bolling not only refused to endorse Cuccinelli but said he had "serious reservations" about Cuccinelli's "ability to effectively and responsibly lead the state," canceled his appearance at a major GOP state retreat this weekend, and refused to rule out running as an independent.

3) Terry McAuliffe, former DNC chair who ran a distant second in the race for the Dem gubernatorial nomination in 2009, had been seen as the near-certain Dem nominee. But former Rep. Tom Perriello is openly mulling running against him.

I'm rooting for Perriello, of course. First of all, I think any reasonable Dem can beat Cuccinelli, whose purpose in life seems to be to make Gov. Ultrasound look like the soul of moderation by comparison. Second, Perriello's a hell of a lot better than your average Democrat: he's a genuine progressive who's been able to win in central Virginia. (He lost in 2010, but only narrowly - not bad in a GOP wave year.) So I think he can beat Cuccinelli. Third, I really have no idea what McAuliffe stands for; he's from the big-money wing of the Democratic Party. Even if Perriello loses, if he runs he will force McAuliffe to take some stands, one way or another.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

l-tc: If you read up on Virginia politics (Blue Virginia has a daily digest of the day's stories, including everything from weather to the latest news of the Nationals) you'd find that, rather than Kookinelli being McDonnell's 'hand-picked candidate,' the two hold each other in 'maximum low regard.' The idea was that, when Romney won, McDonnell would get a cabinet post, and Bolling -- who was LG under both McDonnell and Warner -- would succeed, and as an incumbent not barred from seeking reelection, would bury Cuccinelli.

Oops!

Meanwhile, Virginia switched from a primary to a convention to select candidates. In a primary, it would be close, but a convention favors the more extreme, so Bolling never really had a chance.

Bolling, meanwhile. has not only attacked Cuccinelli, but stated that, while he loved being LG, he 'would not be comfortable' running on a ticket with Cuccinelli, and newspapers differ om whether he has let the opportunity open to run as a third-party or independent. (If he did, and I were to become a Vorginia resident, I might condsider supporting him a way of simultaneously giving a side-kick to both the ultras of Cuccinelli and the DLC-types that gave us Kaine and the disaster of 2010. Doubt if he's much good, but he's no Cuccinelli, and it would derail both trends heading towards 2016.)

Meanwhile, as an outsider, I support Periello over McAuliffe -- but if I were in state, and I saw Cuccinelli as a sure winner in a few months, I'd much rather have him defeat McAuliffe than Periello.

VA politics, and the usual oddites of the 'big 4' first year races (VA,NJ,KY Gov, NYC Mayor) are worth watching, but start from a solider back-ground.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Oops, I misread the last comment as my eyes were focusing. Basically ltc and I are saying the same thing --

I just stupidized 'hand-picked' candidate as referring to Kookoo, not Bolling. It's okay, guys, the brain is just going, that's all.

[oddjob]

Sir C., as you may or may not remember there's only one grocery store in Charlestown. For decades it's been Johnny's Foodmaster, but in a couple of days Whole Foods is taking over there.

You can imagine how well that's going down among the Townies....

[oddjob]

(Oops! That Johnnie's, not Johnny's.)

[kathy a.]

oddjob, that stinks! an entire year without a grocery store, and after a year they get whole paycheck?

there was a very contentious situation in the next town about whole foods opening at a location by longtime student family housing, and where senior housing is also to be built. (this is a tract of land owned by UC Berkeley, although it is located one town from campus.) the city and business types felt it would bring revenue and value to the city; but whole foods backed out of the agreement after a lot of public controversy.

that neighborhood really needs a grocery store; but i'm sympathetic with the voices calling for a more affordable store. one difference from charlestown: a bus line runs frequently from university village up to the local shopping center, which has both a large supermarket and a trader joe's; within the next couple of miles on that bus line are a "natural foods" market and another large supermarket.

[oddjob]

an entire year without a grocery store, and after a year they get whole paycheck?

More than that, it's a very cultural thing. The Charlestown of Sir C's. youth was a very inward looking blue collar neighborhood where you didn't go unless you "belonged there" (were a "Townie"). Since the late 80's a new set of people, largely younger wealthier professionals, have been moving in and the neighborhood's definitely gentrified. Whole Foods fits in well with the new residents, but not at all with the traditional Townies. Other Boston neighborhoods where this has been occurring are the North End and South Boston (aka "Southie").

[nancy]

Foreign Policy names Paul Ryan as a "Global Thinker." Top 100. 2012. From Alec MacGillis, TNR :

And now, here Ryan is, not only being sought for a leading role in the “fiscal cliff” talks, but promoted from domestic policy wonk to “global thinker.” It’s all the more remarkable given the magazine’s framing of its list: “The backlash after the heady Arab revolutions of 2011. The rumblings of war with nuclear-aspiring Iran. The bloody persistence of Bashar al-Assad in civil war-torn Syria. Not to mention a Europe mired in its biggest crisis since World War II and an American presidential campaign that distracted and depressed in equal measure. If ever there were a year for Big Ideas, and a frustration at not hearing them from our leaders, 2012 was it. Which made it all the more rewarding—if even more challenging than usual—to identify this year’s Foreign Policy Global Thinkers.”

Sometimes being out here in flyover USA is disorienting. Foreign Policy ?

One comment, apropos:

A parting shot at Mr. Ryan: When he was introduced by Romney as his running mate back in August, the image of Ryan, as he strode down the steps from a battleship on which he did not serve and up to the podium, wearing a too-large suit, was that of a very small man.

[nancy]

Sorry -- that's Top 10. Numero 8.

[Sir Charles]

Hey guys!

This whole lawyer thing is really getting oppressive, I'm telling you. It's resembling a full time job these days.

Also, I did not win power ball, which means the gala Cogitamus gathering is put off until I win the next $500 million jackpot.

oddjob,

Charlestown and Whole Foods -- just not a combo I'd ever thought I'd see. Actually last time I was in Charlestown it seemed virtually unrecognizable to me.

nancy,

Jesus -- Paul Ryan -- the Einstein of Janesville.

[kathy a.]

ryan has no foreign policy chops whatsoever. the only reason he might be included in any international list is that he bluffed his way to a veep nomination. meh. so did sarah "i can see russia from my house" palin.

anyway, back to the whole foods thingy. it's not all that different a deal in albany CA. the tract where the store would have been located was, until recently, student family housing that consisted of "temporary" buildings erected for WWII wartime workers. they built a bunch of more modern apartments toward the back, but some of those old buildings were only demolished 5 years ago. it is still "affordable" housing, and the immediate surrounding neighborhood is not exactly upscale, although it is gentrifying.

[paula]

SC--maybe you should set up a Cogitamus gathering, with or without the jackpot.

I don't know about you, but I'm experiencing something akin to grief. Can't seem to get moving on anything, and don't even care. Frankly, I think it's from months and months of anxiety leading up to the election, with the added stress of Sandy et al. I'm not sad, just in an productive limbo, and I remember feeling this way for a while after my dad died four years ago.

Maybe we (I) let this thing get too close to us (me). Might be a good time for a get together.

[nancy]

kathy -- I'm pretty sure Palin didn't appear on the FP "Global Thinker" list at any time between then and now. Ruskies, Fox and the Wasilla Palin Studio Sound Set, Way North, notwithstanding. ;-)

The sad thing about Charlestown and Whole Foods is the age of the folks who will be at a loss. Food markets as reliable town "squares", in addition to being places to buy food, are so important to neighborhood cohesion. I can see some solutions (ordering on-line, an enterprising start-up taking orders and supplying food deliveries, orders with pick-up spots, etc.) but nothing replaces getting out and chatting with old friends in the aisles. We don't have Whole Foods (they wouldn't survive here what with local versions of what they supply done better regionally and locally) and I'm glad.

Sir C, sorry about Power Ball. Tehm's the breaks.

[nancy]

Paula, I hear you. In the last 48 hours however, we've had both a birth and a death in the family, which reminds me of what bears remembering. About close anyway.

[Crissa]

If you watch what you buy, Whole Foods can be economical. Their price range is huge; they'll beat Safeway on some fruit&vege at nearly any time, same for their other staples. But on the other hand, their upper end is really high, getting you stuff you'd otherwise not have access to... Things that cost dozens of dollars an ounce. So it's a strange mix. I don't generally go there - we have local stores closer that sell the same stuff with the same range of sales of local produce - but lots of towns don't.

[oddjob]

Their price range is huge

Yes, and I do shop at one because they have some items I regularly want but otherwise have no access to.

[oddjob]

Filibuster reform is being imperiled - by Senate Democrats.

What a shock (not)...

Hat tip, The Plum Line.

[Joe S]

Oddjob, I don't know if filibuster reform is a good idea now (except for appointments). With the House of Representatives safely in Republican or held through a slim majority of Blue Dogs for the next decade, there's not going to be any major liberal legislation until 2022. We should just hold off on filibuster reform until then.

[oddjob]

"...If reform comes to the GOP, it will come with another presidential loss. It's one thing to spend eight years out of office — that can be explained as just a swing in the pendulum. Twelve years out of power, however, is the kind of disaster that forces a party to undergo change."

I'm inclined to agree.

[kathy a.]

i really agree that the GOP problem is not messaging; it is exclusion, and a lack of viable policies meant to advance the prospects of huge numbers of regular people. if an major party only really cares about people like the ones running their party -- mostly well-off white dudes who don't get out much -- that's not good for the country. it does not offer a lot to people besides well-off white dudes.

joe, i think the reason people are talking fillibuster reform is bigger than the fillibuster problem itself. it is the attitude that obama and everything he stands for must be ground to dust, no matter how urgent the need for something useful to be done. that's not governance. that's pitiful.

[Sir Charles]

Paula,

I would love to have a Cogitamus get together. One of these days I will try and figure out a way that might make sense for people. In the meantime, hope you are feeling a better.

Joe,

I think we have to be willing to risk the bitter and the sweet on filibuster reform. I think it more likely to fly if both sides are at some risk. (Although my hope for meaningful reform is pretty limited.)

kathy,

It would actually be nice if the Republican Party was not fully batshit crazy and that we did not have to live in mortal fear of them actually winning an election. I don't see a change coming for a while.

[nancy]

We tend to focus on domestic politics and public policy here, but I wanted to throw this out: how does Netanyahu believe that the announcement of still more settlements, 3000 more homes on the West Bank, the day after specific UN action was taken to grant observer status to "Palestine", can be well-received or a good idea? This ends decently how? I don't see it.

Feels like US Partnership and Solidarity-in-Apartheid to me.

Friday night heavy. I know. Still...this seems self-destructive craziness.

Sir C, Wrote this before your new change-the-subject blog entry. Oh well and anyway. Le weekend beckons.

[oddjob]

This ends decently how? I don't see it.

I don't forsee any good end as long as Likud is influential. They are nothing but trouble and always have been so as far as I can tell.

[Sir Charles]

nancy and oddjob,

I almost put something in my most recent post -- but then felt my usual aversion to this topic. I agree with both of you -- the settlements are an outrage and can lead nowhere good. I think the Netanyahu regime is a completely bad faith actor.

I was really troubled when I was on facebook recently -- a place I never post, but only lurk -- and saw how many of my Jewish friends from Brandeis and elsewhere were extolling the care with which Israel was undertaking its operations in Gaza. This struck me as wishful thinking at best, but I knew better than to jump into that fray -- nothing good would come of it and I would just alienate a bunch of people for whom I have great affection.