"Dreaming" - Blondie
An old favorite -- with a powerhouse performance by the awesome Dr. Clem Burke on drums.
More apologies for my utter lack of productivity on the blog this week. Last night and the night before I sat down with the lap top after walking Stanley, armed with all good and productive intentions, and both nights fell asleep sitting up in classic old man style. It's just been that kind of week. (Hang in there with me -- I will produce more once I get past a couple of things.)
- I was amused and amazed by this story about the Romney campaign's internal polling. How could this people be this inept? If I were a Republican I would find this story chilling. The inability to objectively obsess one's situation strikes me as the worst sin a campaign can commit. Bubble living is a dangerous thing to do.
- Meanwhile, back in the reality based world, the scope of Obama's victory continues to take shape. His lead has now expanded to 4,573,000 votes, with his share of the popular vote edging up to 50.92% while Romney's has slipped to 47.35%. (Since 1960 there have been five elections closer than this one.)
Update: Some months ago I remarked on the fact that although the presidential election was polling in fairly close fashion on a national basis, there were very few states that appeared to be competitive at all. Now that the results are nearly final, this has proven true well beyond what I had imagined. Despite all of the talk of eight to twelve "swing states," the reality is that only four states in the country had margins closer than 5%. Virginia, which thus far Obama leads by 3.88% (which is not that close), Ohio, where he leads by 2.96%, Florida, the closest state in the election, which Obama leads by .88%, and North Carolina, which Romney won by 2.04%. Nowhere else was close, leaving all the talk of not knowing the results until Wednesday or the possible nightmare of multiple recounts seeming particularly silly. Beyond these four states, the closest of the Obama states was Colorado, which he leads by 5.37%. The margins in the next few closest states won by Obama were Pennsylvania by 5.4%, New Hampshire by 5.58%, Iowa by 5.81%, and Nevada by 6.68%. The next closest of the Red States other than North Carolina was Georgia which Romney took by 7.82%. In other words, the country is profoundly politically divided with the Democrats, in presidential races, seeming to have locked in a pretty solid 270 - 300 electoral votes, with a ceiling of about 350. (Assuming that Obama's strong performances in Indiana and Missouri in 2008 were one off events -- which seems more likely than not to be the case.) The Republicans are very solidly ensconced in their electoral strongholds, but these seem to top out at about 200 electoral votes -- even if they can swing Florida and Ohio, they still fall short in the electoral college. The red states were so red in 2012 that Obama was held to below 42% of the vote in 16 of the 24 states that Romney took, and he only cracked 45% in the aforementioned North Carolina and Georgia. Demographic change may alter this landscape, but with margins like these, I suspect that it will be at least a decade before this really manifests itself. On the flip side, Romney was held under 42% in thirteen states, plus the District of Columbia, under 45% in another four states, and under 47% in another six. The states in which Romney got less than 45% of the vote have 227 electoral votes and the states in which he had less 47% of the vote have 272 electoral votes. In such an electoral landscape, the Democrats can afford to concede Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and still win the presidency. This would worry me profoundly were I a Republican. Fortunately, for so many reasons, I am not.
- I believe that predictions that chastened Republicans will capitulate on higher taxes are erroneous. I think that they will be unwilling to compromise through the end of the year. Once taxes have increased across the board, they may be willing to move, but I don't know that I would bet on that either. My sense is that they will make the Dems own the tax increases and hope that the economy slips into recession once again.
What else is going on out there?
-
