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September 23, 2011


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low-tech cyclist

Romney...is never going to out-American Perry the secessionist. (Irony doesn't really register with Republicans.)

It sure doesn't, does it?

Three things that might sink Perry:

1) Even wingnuts require a candidate with a basic level of presentability - that is, you have to sound like you know what you're talking about, even if you don't. I didn't see last night's debate, but it sounds like Perry frequently fails to hurdle that low bar.

Hell, last night when Perry tried to attack Romney on changing his positions so often, Romney made it look as if Perry was the real flip-flopper. You'd think that line of attack would be impossible for any candidate with a pulse to botch up, but Perry apparently did.

2) As you note, Perry does have one Achilles' heel with the wingnut crowd: he's not nearly as anti-immigration as they are.

I think both of these factors, working together, may be enough to sink Perry. If even the wingnuts look at him and think maybe this guy just don't got game, they still need a tangible excuse to abandon their support for him. I think the immigration thing is it.

3) I think Fox has been holding its fire on Romney, because (a) if another candidate (e.g. Perry) was able to wipe the floor with him on his own, then Fox' fingerprints wouldn't be on one side of an intramural battle, and (b) they didn't want to trash Romney before it was clear that they wouldn't want him to be the nominee.

I think they'll stay on the sidelines as long as they can, but if Perry loses enough altitude, they'll help shoot him down in the end.

But it would appear that even if Perry's campaign stumbles and ultimately self-destructs, it'll have sucked the oxygen from Bachmann's campaign for long enough to sink her chances.

Ray M

Wouldn't it be refreshing if, instead of working out how to broaden one's appeal so as to cover the widest range of nuttiness, it were possible to campaign on things that are actually important in the real world?

The more I read about these clowns, the more I'm convinced I've fallen asleep while reading Alice in Wonderland. And that wouldn't matter, if only there wasn't a really good chance one of them might actually be elected.


But it would appear that even if Perry's campaign stumbles and ultimately self-destructs, it'll have sucked the oxygen from Bachmann's campaign for long enough to sink her chances.

Which under the right circumstances would make it possible for Palin to step in late in the game (not that that would help the GOP any).

low-tech cyclist

It's been several months since I've worried at all about Palin. It's become quite clear that Palin's best game is to stay in the shallow waters of considering whether to be a candidate, and that she'll sink like a stone within weeks (if not days) of actually declaring she's running.

Even so, it looks like even her most ardent fans are becoming tired of the game. There's really only so long you can play footsie with a Presidential run before ordinary people realize you're not serious. (I make an exception for the Very Serious People of the Washington Post editorial staff and op-ed page, who never gave up drooling over Gingrich, no matter how many times he considered running but didn't.)

Sir Charles


Welcome. Yeah, it's pretty frustrating to see the coverage of the election and the things that the media choose to focus on -- especially in these debates.

oddjob and l-t c,

I don't see how Palin could get into this thing at this late date -- you really need to lock down the activists in places like New Hampshire and Iowa early on. I would imagine that at this point most of these folks are committed to one of the declared candidates. Palin's only hope would be some sort of brokered convention -- something that strikes me as deeply unlikely.


Palin's always been in this thing for money and attention. She's not really going to run--that would require actual work.

I find it a compelling commentary on the GOP and the state of our politics in general that the one statement that Perry's made that was both compassionate and sensible--that the children of immigrants shouldn't suffer for their parents' actions, and that our society will benefit if they're educated--is considered a terrible gaffe that might sink his whole campaign. Really sums it all up, doesn't it?

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

Just a brief break from my 'no talking about politics' position only to point out that the collapse of Perry's campaign -- see last night's Straw Poll in Florida where he competed heavily and lost to Herman Cain -- is why I got 'off the roller coaster' for a while.

I still insist that the eventual Republican nominee will be someone not among the 'not-so-great eight.' Not Palin, I agree she'd sink like a stone. But it may come down to a Huckabee-Christie-Ryan contest or the like, simply because none of the current candidates can get a majority.

Either that, or the Vicar of Bray will simply outlast all the others, and there will be a credible 3rd (Tea Party) candidacy starring somebody from right field like, who knows, Limbaugh or Virginia Foxx or somebody totally unthought of -- Russell Fucking Pearce or somebody like that.

(There is someone named Ackerman, didn;t know him but he was on Colbert the other week talking about some initiative to get a party on the ballot in all 50 states and then hold an Internet Primary to pick the candidate. I think he expected an anti-Obama Progressive -- I'm sure he'll get a far right nutjob like Ron Paul at best.

And one more ting before I wander off on the other 'rides in the park' and that is

"Whatever Ms. Warren has been drinkng, please inform me so I can send bottles to all the other candidates."

Really sums it all up, doesn't it?

Yes, it does.

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