By this time tomorrow I am assuming that President Obama will have sent General Stanley McChrystal packing. Whether the insults that will appear in the upcoming Rolling Stone article regarding the President and his advisers were directly from McChrystal or from his aides, it is pretty clear that an atmosphere of insubordination was fostered by and tolerated by the General. He has to go. I don't think there can be any debate about it, especially in light of earlier behavior that bordered on the insubordinate.
Although this turn of events doesn't seem ideal, it may have a hidden silver lining in that it gives the President the opportunity to put someone in charge who will be truly committed to drawing down troops by next summer. I suspect that McChrystal was going to be a problem in this regard and now Obama may be able to find someone who is a skeptic regarding the mission and would be happy to see U.S forces out of what increasingly appears to be a hopeless morass.
I supported the invasion of Afghanistan when it occurred and even felt that Obama was correct that it was the place where American focus should have been while we were fighting the foolish war of choice in Iraq. However, what has become apparent is that whatever opportunity there might have been for success back in 2002 was long squandered by 2009. There is no way to recreate the conditions that might have existed in the early days of the invasion. Nearly a decade into this war, whatever prospects there were for transforming Afghanistan -- and those were probably limited in the first place -- are simply gone.
About the best outcome that can be derived from our current efforts is that political space is created in which some kind of minimally acceptable state can emerge that will not actively ally itself with al Qaeda.
Ultimately, the United States and its military are just not terribly good at counterinsurgency. It does not play to our strengths in any sense. The United States military excels in wars of massive fire power and movement, battles in which combined naval, air, and ground forces can be used to maximum effect, not in circumstances that require the judicious use of force. Look at our track record from the Philippines to Haiti to Nicaragua to Vietnam and it does not inspire confidence.
The American people are not terribly well suited to dealing with traditional societies. Hell, we are the least traditional of societies, notwithstanding the strength of right wing politics here. Americans have a hard time preserving even our own minimal collective traditions -- the notion that we would be sensitive to the ways of one of the most backward places on earth is asking too much.
So Obama should look for the general who is least enthusiastic about the mission, someone with no faith in counterinsurgency strategy (and there are many of them in the Army), who desperately wants to get the troops out as fast as possible. That's your guy.
Update: Almost Infamous - Fire him for bad taste. Evidently the McCrystal/Rolling Stone debacle was facilitated by a lengthy bus trip from Paris to Berlin in which the General and his staff consumed case after case of Bud LIght Lime. Really? Bud Light Lime!? The bus trip was necessary due to the volcanic eruption in Iceland. for want of a nail and all that . . . But can I repeat -- Bud Light Lime? Even I wouldn't drink that shit, and I'll drink anything.
[So I venture into foreign policy and military matters and I get three comments? You forced me into this -- GREENWALD!]
