So much of the punditry's and blogosphere's attention is focused either on the various stunts the GOP pulls to seem more relevant, or on the criticisms from liberals about the Obama administration's disappointments (torture, Geithner) -- it's easy sometimes to lose sight of how most of the population sees the big picture. And in spite of all the political hue and cry, a new set of polls confirms, Obama is still very much riding high.
He's not just surfing the crest of popularity that peaked at the elections, either. He's actually continuing to boost people's confidence about the state of their country - or something is.
A new AP poll conducted on April 16-20 finds that for the first time since January 2004, more Americans than not say the country is headed in the right direction. In October 2008, just 17% of Americans believed the US was on the right track, while 78% believed it was heading in the wrong direction. Now, seven months later, it's 48% vs. 44%.
Although a couple of other polls (Allstate/National Journal, Marist College and Diageo/Hotline) showed the lines crossing this past month as well, most polls have not quite yet reached this point. But they're close, as the trendlines at pollster.com show:
The AP poll's data show that the share of Americans who believe the country is heading in the right direction has increased significantly even since mid-January, just before Obama's inauguration. It went up from 35% to 48%, while the share of those who believed the country was on the wrong track went down from 54% to 44%.
Obama remains personally popular still as well. In the AP poll, 64% approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president, while 30% disapproves. Here there is some slippage: Obama's approval rating in January was still 74%. Congress, on the other hand, is actually increasing in popularity, though admittedly from a low baseline. 38% now approves of its performance, compared to 31% in February and 24% in December.
When Obama's performance is judged by individual issue, he scores remarkably evenly across the board. On seven of thirteen issues respondents were asked about, 58%-60% approved of the way Obama is handling them.
Outliers are "relationship with other countries," on which he is judged particularly favourably (69%), and immigration (47%), the federal budget deficit (49%) and gas prices (51%), on which he performs weakly.
Gas prices and immigration are also among the issues considered least important though - immigration is in fact the single issue considered important by the least people of all. The economy and unemployment, on the other hand, are considered important by most everyone, and on those issues Obama scores well.
When it comes to the question whether Obama understands "the problems of ordinary Americans" and "the important issues the country will need to focus on during the next four years," about half thinks he understands them very well, and another quarter thinks he understands them "somewhat well".
Striking as always - but not reported enough when faced with Republican claims that they voice significant popular dissatisfaction - is just how negatively Americans view the Republican opposition.
While opinions about Democrats are fairly evenly balanced - 50% approves of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling the economy, 45% disapproves - the Republicans are down to minimal support. Just 29% approves of the way the GOP in Congress handles the economy; 65% disapproves.
Similarly, while 61% thinks Obama is doing enough or even too much to cooperate with the Republicans, just 32% thinks the Republicans do enough or too much to cooperate with Obama.
The Chicago Tribune, meanwhile, is highlighting the popularity of Michelle Obama, reporting on another poll, conducted by the Pew Center on April 14-21. She is extremely popular, even for a First Lady, as a historical comparison reveals:
The public's opinion of the first lady runs even higher than its opinion of the president [..]. That's not unusual -- first ladies generally don't become ensnared in the political controversies that can weigh on a politician's public image. But this first lady outpaces recent predecessors: At 76 percent, she ranks higher than Laura Bush did in July 2001 (at 64 percent favorable) and higher than Hillary Clinton did in May 1993 (60 percent).
Michelle Obama also is reaching across party lines: 67 percent of Republican women hold a favorable view of her, up 21 percentage points since January.
The Pew site has more details. It notes "a substantial gender gap," for example, in the appraisal of Michelle among independents and Republicans (men are more sceptical). And when Michelle ranks higher than either Laura Bush or Hillary did at this point of their husbands' presidencies, the heightened appreciation is bipartisan. Her popularity is 16-19% higher than Hillary's was at this point among Democrats, Republicans and independents alike. She's more popular among Democrats than Laura was among Republicans, and more popular among Republicans than Laura was among Democrats.
There's differences in image too, of course:
Among the most often used words to describe Michelle Obama are Strong, Confident, Smart, Wife, and Wonderful, none of which were in the top-20 words used for Laura Bush eight years ago. By contrast, Mrs. Bush was often described as Ladylike, Quiet, Loyal, Dignified, and Pleasant, none of which make the list for Mrs. Obama.
The Pew poll, of course, yielded plenty of data about Barack too. The interesting part about Pew's report is that it includes historical comparisons. How is Obama doing compared to his predecessors at the 100-day mark?
On job approval, Pew finds Obama at a 63% approval rating - almost identical to AP's result. That's better than Bush Sr., Clinton and Bush Jr. were faring at this point in time, whose approval ratings all hovered around 55-58%. It's more in line with where Carter and Reagan were - which is noteworthy because it's sometimes said that it's harder for politicians to ratchet up high ratings in the much more polarised political climate of today.
Pew did not just ask respondents how well they thought Obama was handling his job; it also asked whether they had a favourable or unfavourable impression of him. The 73% who answered (very or mostly) favourable constitutes a slight drop from January, but is still up from any point last year. Moreover, it's a considerably higher favourability rating than either Clinton (60%) or Bush Jr. (61%) enjoyed at this time.
The Pew poll also agrees with the AP one that the public perceives Obama as doing best on foreign policy and the economy - and not as well on, understandably enough, the budget deficit, but more surprisingly, also on tax policy and health care. Obama's middle class tax cut has apparently not impressed people so much yet, and the health care issue is awaiting its appearance on the political front lines later this year.
Majorities of respondents in the Pew poll approve of specific decisions by the Obama administration, such as closing Guantanamo (51% to 38%) and permitting federal funding for most embryonic stem cell research (63% to 27%). Republican criticisms such as that Obama is not pushing U.S. interests hard enough, or that he is trying to tackle too many issues, are supported by just one in three respondents.
(The AP poll has near-identical numbers rejecting the charge that he is tackling too many issues, and adds that just 28% agrees with the remarks that suddenly started popping up among pundits a couple of weeks ago that Obama is on TV too much. That's one thing independent polls are good for: puncturing the hypes that flourish inside the media bubble.)
Obma's also seen as keeping his word. Just 15% of the AP poll respondents say Obama is breaking "his promises
to change the way things work in Washington". According to the Pew
poll, 63% believes he has a new approach to politics while 27% believe
he means business as usual. One in four voters actually thinks he's
been doing better than expected, while just 9% believes he's done worse.
Conservative tea-baggers may believe Obama is the devil incarnate. We may be smarting from moves by the Obama administration that we consider half-hearted or even cowardly. But among the electorate at large, he is still very much the President of hope and change.
