Sarah Palin: George W. Bush

This probably isn't the first parallel that came to anyone's mind, but Sarah Palin and the George W. Bush of Election 2000 have a surprising amount in common.

Both are governors of conservative oil-producing states. Neither has any well-developed views or experience on foreign policy. Both can be trusted to do the standard things to satisfy the religious right and the corporate interests that run the Republican Party. Both have some kind of fake reaching-out-to-the left appeal that doesn't translate into policy -- Bush's 'compassionate conservatism' and Palin's gender. Both have fairly thin resumes and job titles that overstate their political experience (most of the power in Texas rests in the state legislature, while Palin has been Alaska's governor for only two years).

What does this mean for the foreign policy that Palin might conduct if she became president? The best way of figuring out is probably by looking at McCain's current foreign policy advisors. My understanding of why Bush invaded Iraq involves a mix of Rumsfeld's desire to try invading countries with an unusually light army, Wolfowitz's utopian plan to drop a democracy paradise bomb in the Middle East, a bunch of foreign policy people focusing on rogue states instead of al-Qaeda, whatever plot Cheney was brewing, and Rove's desire to start an politically useful war. Blend these together into a combined plan that Bush will fall in love with for reasons grounded in his personal psychology, and you've got the Iraq War.

So who would a Palin administration do? Given that Robert Kagan is on the case, it won't involve any respect for international institutions, and it'll involve aggressive military action against somebody. The likely victim will be a country who's annoying a foreign lobbying client of Randy Scheuneman and/or Charlie Black. Whatever delusion James Woolsey has got into his head at the time will play a key role. I don't have a good sense for how all this adds up, but I wouldn't expect the Russians to do anything friendly for us for a very long time.

Comments

[lux]

What came to my mind was 'Dan Quayle in a skirt'.

[John]

The thing is, though, that Bush had, at the very least, been governor for six years. He was the son of a former president, and had been involved, at the very least, in his father's campaigns in 1988 and 1992. He also had to, you know, win the Republican primaries and defeat a bunch of more experienced opponents (notably including John McCain). And, by the time he was nominated, he had been surrounding himself with old GOP foreign policy hands for some time.

Bush was obviously, nonetheless, a terrible choice for president. But he still seems head and shoulders above Sarah Palin, who has, so far as we can gather, never given much thought to national political issues at all, much less foreign affairs.

[Corvus9]

in the interests of all of our personal psychological states, I think I should just say, in the words of Bob Marley, "Everything is going to be all right." Really. Maybe it is pollyannaish or something, but fuck it. Barack Obama will win. Regardless of where the game is now, Obama will win. It's like betting against the Jordan-era Bulls (someone is from the Chicagoland area) or Garry Kasparov. They know how to do it, and the other guy does not have the ability or skills to beat him.

I just don't feel like worrying about what bullshit moves McCain pulls, because he will not win. Everything that happens convinces me that Obama will just pull this out. Don't worry. Barack's got it.

(Of course, I will also be buying a bottle of Jameson's Whiskey before the election in case I am wrong. Just in case I need to drown my sorrows before planning my emigration to Ireland.)

[MR Bill]

Maybe it's just me, but Ms. Palin's affect is pretty much the same as a lot of young evangelical women: enthusiastic to a slightly scary extent, perky and upbeat while saying the most unchristian things (I'm thinking the 'bitch' comment regarding the Alaska Legislator), and to me, somewhat forced.
It plays well with a certain subset, however..

[Neil the Ethical Werewolf]

I'm pretty close to where you are, Corvus. (Psychologically, not geographically -- I'm living in Singapore now.) Things are on track. People at the top have a pretty solid idea what they're doing. I wish they were more aggressive at winning news cycles, but I don't have a lot to complain about.

Even if Obama is Jordan, though, I'm trying to be Steve Kerr, or at least a noisy and supportive fan.

[Stephen]

I'm giddy. Just giddy about this. The more I think about it, the better it gets. Palin will make Harriet Miers look like a great idea and a substantive choice for the Supreme Court. She'll make Dan Quayle look like the result of George H.W. Bush's political genius.

And strangely enough, I have a post that talks about why. It just came up, I don't feel like linking it.

[oddjob]

Neither has any well-developed views or experience on foreign policy

Actually, Gov. Shrub was better experienced than Palin is now. He had already interacted with Mexico's president due to Texas-Mexico trade issues. (In fact, he wanted his very first meeting as President to be with Mexico's President - an intention which caused his first foreign policy mishap because it pissed off the Canadians who are by far the larger trading partner and who have a tradition of being the first foreign greeter of the new president.)