Cogitamus

Torturing the definition of Torture

This Administration has brought calamity and shame on this nation in ways I never could have imagined, but the most unquestionably disgraceful act of this repulsive regime has been to permit torture to be used in our collective names.  I would like to think that there is a special place in hell awaiting those who acquiesce in this, rationalize it, or attempt to explain it away -- sometimes it sucks to be a non-believer.

But Attorney General Michael Mukasey added another odious chapter to this sad tale yesterday when testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee.  The chief law enforcement officer of the United States was unwilling to opine as to whether "waterboarding" or "controlled drowning," as it is more accurately described, is torture.  Now I don't have nearly as distinguished a legal pedigree as Mr. Mukasey, but I think I can say with some sense of assurance that "of course it is you enormous fucking whore." 

The Convention against Torture defines torture as "any act by which severe pain or suffering, whether physical or mental, is intentionally inflicted on a person for such purposes as obtaining from him or a third person information or a confession."   This does not strike me as a terribly difficult definition to apply to a practice such as waterboarding.  If you think it is, then ask yourself the question would you think it torture if a foreign government or group did this to an American serviceman or civilian? 

"I warned at the time it was not authority for a preemptive war."

This simply will not do. The operative meaning of the AUMF is not what Hillary Clinton wishes it to be; it's what George W. Bush wishes it to be. And I think it was obvious at the time that George W. Bush intended use a document titled "Authorization for use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002" to, you know, use force against Iraq. If Hillary Clinton seriously believes that the AUMF vote was about getting inspections going again, I have a mortgage-backed security to sell her.

Profiles in Uninsured

Since the subject of the uninsured is coming up, let's look at the numbers. The HHS has a very nice survey showing the socioeconomic profile of the uninsured in America. Let's take the two most interesting charts, the uninsured by age:

And the uninsured by income:

In short, setting aside children, the median uninsured American is a 33 year old making about $42,000—about $3,500 per month. Now, what sort monthly insurance payment can that person afford? And what sort of payment would they end up paying under the Obama or Clinton plans? I have no idea.

Yet More Bold Debate Predictions

Once again, the winner of tonight's debate will be the candidate who does the best job of "hating the game" that is Beltway politics.

I'm Switching... To Romney!

There's a lot of discussion these days about where Edwards supporters will go in the wake of his leaving the race. I have a mild preference for Obama over Clinton (well, mild in comparison to my overwhelming enthusiasm for Edwards). But in the end, I think either of them would be hugely preferable to any of the Republican candidates.

And that's why I'd be voting for Mitt Romney if I lived in a Super Tuesday state with open primaries. Take a look at the general election head-to-head polls -- McCain beats both Hillary and Obama by a little, while Romney loses to both by double digits. Setting up Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee seems like the best way to contribute to Democratic victory in November. Even keeping a viable Mitt Romney in the race a little longer is worth a lot -- the more time he has to pummel McCain with ads funded by his incredible wealth, the better off we are.

Congratulations

As most of you know, John Edwards has ended his campaign for the presidency in New Orleans, the same place he began. There's no shortage of articles out there to explain you why I'm incredibly proud to have spent the past two years promoting and volunteering for the campaign. In my blog posts, I was always trying to make the pro-Edwards points that weren't getting emphasized enough in the debate, and now I find that people I admire are saying everything I'd want to say. (If you're looking for a "Why we lost" article, I more or less wrote it three weeks ago.)

On a wide range of issues, and especially on health care, Edwards moved the entire debate to the left. Ezra has written about this a lot, and so has Matt Yglesias. I'd particularly like to point people to John Cohn's new post at TNR, which is titled Why John Edwards Won. If "winning" means transforming American politics for the better, John and Elizabeth deserve our congratulations.

Straight Talk!

Verbatim Marc Ambinder: "Even if McCain is stretching to make a point, if we're talking about Iraq, he makes the points better than anyone else."

Ambinder's frequently a quality reporter, but if the press is just going to stop adjudicating the truth value of what comes out of candidates' mouth, why bother?

The stupid will continue until we leave, I guess

We're almost at the 5-year mark for this misbegotten war, and they're still making up the reason for being there in the first place:

Wurmser said that Cheney, Feith, and Bolton were convinced that U.S. containment of Saddam Hussein was failing and that the controls to keeping Saddam Hussein from expanding his regional influence were dying. As a result, the Iraqi leader was in position to exploit the rising anti-Americanism in the region and to break out from the sanctions strategy and the no-fly zones to lead a rogue coalition of nations to expel the United States from the region and even to wage war against the United States. The failure of the United Nations and multilateralism in general made a compelling case for U.S. intervention, according to Wurmser.

"John McCain: Surprisingly Liberal"

Indeed:

Perhaps George Soros can find the compassion to give these guys some spare change. And by "spare change" I mean "thirty million dollars", which is of course spare change to George Soros

In general, I'm skeptical that Mitt Romney's money, talk radio, the subset Giuliani donors that hate John McCain, and the DC circles of conservative political junkies will be able to rise up and stop him. But I would love to be proven wrong.

Where's all the oil going?

I found this interesting:

The chief executive of the oil giant Royal Dutch Shell, Jeroen van der Veer, put out a paper on Friday forecasting the end of easy oil....

Dr Jim Buckee has just retired as president and chief executive of Talisman Energy, a major independent Canadian oil company with a market capitalisation of $25 billion.... "I think it was only a matter of time before one of them had to say that, and the pronouncements of the majors are inscrutable at best and I believe they often have a very political overtone," he said.

Fearless Predictions

I would bet a bottle of Viagra (not that I need it for my chivalrous lance) and a couple of Cuban cigars that "St. John of the Straight Talk" will have his head buried firmly in Rush Limbaugh's man parts, such as they are, within a month or so.  And that Rush will be attesting to the quality and sincerity of the services being afforded him by that maverick rapscallion to his audience of automatons.

Also, I think Edwards will endorse Obama prior to Super Tuesday -- but that's not nearly as much fun to write.

2008 Florida (FL) Republican Primary Results Map

Here's the latest installment. It's unclear to me why Mitt Romney would win the Jacksonville media market (in the Northeast) but tie Orlando, lose Tampa-St. Petersburg, and Miami. Okay, I get that Miami is unusual, but I can't see what differences between Jacksonville and Tampa would cause Romney to win the former 42-27, but lose the latter 37-30.  And why would he win Naples and Fort Myers, but nothing else nearby?

Hillary

In the 2004 "Presidential Preference" primary - what is it with Florida, anyway? - Florida's Democrats cast 753,762 votes.  At this point in the counting process, Florida Democrats on Tuesday cast 1,629,970 votes.  This number will certainly be higher as absentee and provisional ballots are included in the official results.

Apparently the Democratic residents of what is arguably America's most colorful state didn't get the memo that today's primary didn't count.  Hillary received startingly close to double Kerry's total, Obama's 2nd place finish is so far within 40,000 votes of Kerry's 1st place finish and John Edward's distant 3rd place finish today still netted him 3 times the votes he received in 2004, when he finished 2nd.

This primary is important even if Florida's delegates are never seated, because it shows Democrats' interest and excitement, and it's a remarkably effective poll gauging our candidates' relative levels of support.  And here's where I'm going to disagree with my colleagues here at Cogitamus:

Hillary was right to celebrate her win, she was right to say to Florida Democrats that she'll work to have their delegates seated, and would be right to actually follow through with that bit of rhetoric.

Whither those manly men of the Right -- or is it wither?

First Fred Thompson and now Rudy, consigned to the scrap heap of history.  The left nut in the GOP nut sack, as it were, joining the right nut in oblivion.

Oh the lamentations and garment rending that that must be going on in the Fox News Studios and the basements of right wing bloggers everywhere.  Orange stained eyes, as Cheetos meet tears in a poignant display of manly fellow feeling.  (No, not the kind of fellow feeling that Larry Craig goes in for -- feelings in your little heart not in your little head.)

I don't think the term schadenfreude is adequate to describe how I feel about the demise of the Il Duce of the outer boroughs.  Isn't there a more potent German word -- like uberschadenfreude to describe it.  Well, let me just say goodbye and good riddance you phony, arrogant, philandering and corrupt prick.  Your loss is indeed America's gain.      

Non-Republican Musical Interlude

Dancing in the Lesbian Bar - Jonathan Richman

If this doesn't make you smile, you probably are a Republican.

While Nick does the heavy lifting.   

Election Almost Liveblogging

7:40 eastern: From the very early results, it looks like Romney is winning in the Orlando and Jacksonville media markets, as well as some of the more rural counties in North Florida, even over Huckabee (!). McCain is winning in Tampa-St Pete, as well as the coast North of Miami. No numbers yet from Pensacola, PCB, or Miami yet.

Run Everywhere

Holy crow. Team Obama has had a large enough influx of cash that they've decided to run TV ads in every February 5th state, and to ramp up advertising in LA (which they had previously avoided because of high cost and unfavorable demographics). To an extent, the decision to run ads in New York is more about getting votes in New Jersey and Connecticut, but if you've got the extra scratch, why not go all out? There's no real way to build any sort of organization in a week, so ads and local appearances are the only ways to change the game from here on out.

Clearly this is good news for John McCain.

Country Before Party and (Some) Paesani

"It would be easier to pay off the national debt overnight
than to neutralize the long-range effects of our national stupidity."
-- Frank Zappa

The Zappaphile also known as my Darling Husband is off to vote in the Republican primary here in Florida.*

Unlike many (if not most) of his fellow Republicans, R was against the invasion of Iraq from the very beginning. In fact, he can most accurately be described as a true, Old-School conservative. For those too young to remember, this is a similar political philosophy to that held by the late Frank Zappa--in other words, he feels government should stay out of his business, brain, and bedroom, and that American tax dollars are better spent helping Americans in America than on profligate nation-building and the wanton invading of sovereign lands. Which enterprises, he believes--cynically, accurately--were and are about enriching defense contractors and cronies under the guise of "spreadin' freedom and preventin' nookyular proliferationizing".  At our expense.

(What a noble, if quaint, version of conservative thinking, huh?  Where have you gone, Mr. Zappa, sir?  Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you...) 

Anyway, Dear Husband plans to support the Democratic nominee this November, having supported Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, even displaying huge Republicans For Kerry banners on our house, which is flanked on either side by Serious Republicans of Faith whose Borrow-Spend-Invade! philosophy aligns in perfect symmetry with that of the modern neocon. (At least, the banners were displayed until local goons tore them down the day Bush came to St. Pete for a fundraising event at our neighbor's house down the street. I suppose city officials couldn't have the POTUS look out of his bulletproof SUV as it rolled through the isle and lay eyes on such baldfaced evidence of dissent within his own party--certainly not right before dinner.)

So, considering the list of Republican choices he faces today, and knowing how proud he is of his hometown and ancestral heritage alike, I am that much more appreciative of R's intense individualism and logical, autodidactic approach to politics as well as life itself.

And even though I'm certain, given his disdain for Kool-Aid-drunk party-liners in particular and slow-witted sheep in general, that he would never do it anyway, I wish to thank the Italian-American Republican man from New York City for not voting for the Italian-American Republican man from New York City.

*For one of the, ah, least likely long shots in the history of elections.

Also at litbrit.

Caption Contest

Florida Meaningless Coffeehousing Thread

What's the word?

Obama! He's Hip!

This ad, which hasn't gotten much coverage in the blagotubes, has been running in a few states, presumably on stations like MTV or during programs under-30s like to watch, in order to drum up young volunteers:

I always think these things look a bit like "things forty year old marketing executives think twenty year olds will find 'cool'", but nonetheless it's an attempt at outreach.

His last effing State of the Union Address

One lone man, armed only with a bottle of mid-budget 2006 tempranillo, alas, two-thirds empty by the time the speech began, sat to watch, for the blessedly final time, the man some call the Chimperor (I prefer the punchier and more cogent "asshole"), give his final state of the union address.

First good moment for me -- "American families need to balance their budgets, so should the government."  Where to begin -- first of all, in the fief of Sir Charles this mythical balanced budget has rarely been achieved.  I suspect that most Americans carry some degree of debt, not in and of itself a bad thing.  But more amusingly, Chimpy acts like he has nothing to do with all of that red ink.  The guy who obtained all of those credit cards for the family, is shocked, shocked I tell you, that there is debt afoot.      

 

Al Qaeda in Iraq

Tonight's speech from President Bush and John McCain's response shows that we're going to experience a year's worth of misinformation on the nature of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Everybody needs to cowboy up, or hunker down, or man the barricades, or whatever it is you do in this situation. Let's start clarifying the situation by going to Rear Admiral Smith's conference call (PDF) on the subject and associated briefing slides (PDF).

In short, "Al-Qaeda in Iraq" consists of a large-ish number Iraqi foot soldiers, a smaller number of foreign fighters, all directed by a small number of foreign leaders. When asked about the relationship between AQI and The Real Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan & Pakistan (and to a lesser extent Egypt), Admiral Smith pointed to "a communication flow between the senior leadership of al Qaeda in Pakistan and the senior leaders here in Iraq". But what exactly is it the leadership in Pakistan is doing with these lines of communication? What sort of "safe haven" can they plausibly create in Iraq? Would the current organizational structure persist if the US gave Sunnis a larger stake in Iraq while they began withdrawing? Would the Iraqis possess the desire and capability to organize attacks once the occupation leaves? No one's even attempted to answer these questions; instead we get nostrums about surrender will immediately lead to Osama bin Laden moving to Fallujah and recruiting Zarqawi's successor to fly a plane into Yankee Stadium. There's no reason to take this view as gospel.

Because You're Gonna Need It

SOTU Drinking Game.

Just how stupid is the US Air Force?

Plenty stupid, apparently.  They've taken to arguing that the US Navy and Army are enemy forces.  And they're calling the budget battle a "zero-sum gain".  Two things here, aside from my contention that it's properly called a "zero-sum game"...

1)  A zero-sum game makes no sense in a context of a generally growing resource.  If the US military budget grows, as it has every year for more than a decade, and the USAF's budget grows, but doesn't grow quite as fast as the US Army's, this is not a zero-sum game as conventionally defined.

2)  Next time the USAF argues it needs F-22 Raptors to shoot down Chinese MiGs, can we now say that "even the US Air Force" admits that the real purpose of these fighters is to fiscally sink US Navy vessels and budgetarily destroy advanced tanks and infantry fighting vehicles?