This probably isn't the first parallel that came to anyone's mind, but Sarah Palin and the George W. Bush of Election 2000 have a surprising amount in common.
Both are governors of conservative oil-producing states. Neither has any well-developed views or experience on foreign policy. Both can be trusted to do the standard things to satisfy the religious right and the corporate interests that run the Republican Party. Both have some kind of fake reaching-out-to-the left appeal that doesn't translate into policy -- Bush's 'compassionate conservatism' and Palin's gender. Both have fairly thin resumes and job titles that overstate their political experience (most of the power in Texas rests in the state legislature, while Palin has been Alaska's governor for only two years).
What does this mean for the foreign policy that Palin might conduct if she became president? The best way of figuring out is probably by looking at McCain's current foreign policy advisors. My understanding of why Bush invaded Iraq involves a mix of Rumsfeld's desire to try invading countries with an unusually light army, Wolfowitz's utopian plan to drop a democracy paradise bomb in the Middle East, a bunch of foreign policy people focusing on rogue states instead of al-Qaeda, whatever plot Cheney was brewing, and Rove's desire to start an politically useful war. Blend these together into a combined plan that Bush will fall in love with for reasons grounded in his personal psychology, and you've got the Iraq War.
So who would a Palin administration do? Given that Robert Kagan is on the case, it won't involve any respect for international institutions, and it'll involve aggressive military action against somebody. The likely victim will be a country who's annoying a foreign lobbying client of Randy Scheuneman and/or Charlie Black. Whatever delusion James Woolsey has got into his head at the time will play a key role. I don't have a good sense for how all this adds up, but I wouldn't expect the Russians to do anything friendly for us for a very long time.
