In Which My Native Pessimism Continues To Assert Itself

I agree with Jesse that this is a holy shit moment.

However, it's not cause for unqualified celebration.  Specter is switching parties, yay!  Is he switching his stance on card check?  And does one more Conservative Democrat™ actually give us a "filibuster-proof majority" or does it mean the Conservative Democrats™ in the Senate will be even more encouraged to show their independence by grandstanding their opposition to whatever Obama wants?

Comments

[low-tech cyclist]

I'm gonna go with cautious optimism. Specter says in his statement that he's not changing his position on card check from where it is now. But presumably he's got to give at least a passable impression of being a Dem in order to win the Dem primary next year.

He doesn't have to turn into the second coming of Paul Wellstone, but if he keeps racking up anti-Dem votes, his primary opponents' ads will write themselves: "He calls himself a Democrat, but he voted against X, Y, Z, A, B, C, and D in the past year. You can call a Republican a Democrat, but calling him one doesn't make it so." But being the 60th vote on one or two key cloture votes could go a long way for him.

[low-tech cyclist]

I see the PA Democratic Party has promised not to field a primary opponent. But that doesn't stop Dems who weren't part of that deal from running anyway. And unless Specter at least somewhat votes like a Dem between now and next spring, the PA Dem party will look mighty stupid if they support Specter over a genuine Dem. So I think Specter has to get at least a hair this side of Ben Nelson to be convincing.

The other thing I'm wondering is, how the right-wing pundits are going to spin this one, which, like it or not, is a big loss for them.

Broder, OTOH, will write about how it's a great day for centrism and bipartisanship.

[C.S.]

he switching his stance on card check?

He doesn't need to switch. All he needs to do is vote for cloture. Then he can vote against it all he likes.

[has_te]

Well, maybe it'll give wormy wuss-puss Reid some backbone.
[In Yer Fever'd Dreams!, buzznuts.]

[nimh]

Good news. If he's willing to switch parties to retain his seat, I'm sure he'll be willing to move a bit further to the left to make it through the Dem primary without loss of face too. And yeah, EFCA should be a touchstone... curious what Sir Charles thinks about this development!

Specter won't be a liberal, of course, and yes, the posturing of conservative Democrats is annoying. So are the compromises they force the Congress leadership to make. But in the end they tend to do a lot of posturing, but still line up behind the party on the crucial votes. Or at least, as C.S. points out, on the procedural votes that really matter.

On lots of stuff. of course, Specter's switch won't make much of a difference, he'll just remain a centrist vote. But on the votes where the Whip really comes down along party lines, it will, and those do tend to be the most crucial.

Btw, I couldn't help noticing that in their responses, Susan Collins very unambiguously rejects switching parties, but Olympia Snowe is quoted only as decrying what the Republican party's come to ...

[oddjob]

I think Collins had already made it fairly clear that when push comes to shove she's not a moderate.

[nimh]

That said, it's good news in the short term ... but I guess it's actually bad news in the medium term. At least when just talking about the political colour of this one Senate seat, not about the broader symbolics.

I mean, thanks to Specter, Obama should now be able to count on some crucial successful cloture votes. So that's good for this year and next. But Specter was never gonna win the Republican primaries. And how much of a chance did Toomey stand to win the general elections of 2010? Short of a drastic change in the political environment, the Dems should have stood a very good chance to win that Senate seat in 2010 anyway - and that would have had a proper Democrat in Specter's place. Now, on the other hand, Specter is likely to be the Dem Senator for the six years following 2010 as well.

[Crissa]

Spector was generally left of the DINOs, and held firm with the Republican caucus as demanded, which made him appear more right-wing than he was.

We have to remember how far right the aisle has moved from the 80s, when he was elected. Back then, we still had a majority big-money local fat-cat democrats, and now we're left with just a few like Feinstein and such, with none remaining of the old southern contingent which hung on until then - the last one died recently.

Spector obviously made the choice before the big legislation came through... At least, that's what I think.

[Sir Charles]

Arlen Spector is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've known in my whole life.

[oddjob]

Seriously? Huh.

[oddjob]

He also has the most maddening habit of saying all the right things and voting the wrong way.

And I say that as a political moderate.

[Sir Charles]

Of course, Spector is one of the biggest dicks known to mankind, a ruthless, nasty asshole, with an oversized ego and an undersized set of principles. He is deeply disliked by any number of people on the Hill and for good reason.

I find his stance on EFCA particularly appalling and opportunistic. I think labor should threaten to back someone in a primary if he will not commit to voting for cloture at a minimum.

It is my understand that he also continues to claim to oppose Dawn Johnsen's nomination to OLC. If I were Obama I would tell him he better get on board on this if he wants help running against Toomey.

I hate this fucker in case that wasn't clear -- nevertheless it is on balance a good development and one that could prove very demoralizing to the GOP. They are in danger of slipping to 34-35 senators after 2010 -- I think they are going to lose New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Kentucky, and Missouri and possibly North Carolina. That would be a stunningly difficult place for them to be and would really open the door to a lot of combinations to get progressive legislation through.

[Stephen]

C.S.,

Good point. My impression is that Democrats usually engage in cloture antics when it gives them cover from the left, but maybe that's just my perspective and not reality.

Sir Charles,

That line needs an awful lot of unpacking in this context.

[C.S.]

"Cloture Antics" is a good name for a band.

[Sir Charles]

"The warmest, bravest, etc." line is from "The Manchurian Candidate."

[Stephen]

I know that, Charles. I want to know just what you mean by it.

[Sir Charles]

That was a response to oddjob. I think to unpack it, so to speak, would rob it of its poetry.

Alright, what I meant is that although I despise Specter deeply, I did feel more than a little glee at this move, and like a brainwashed dupe found myself willing to be happy to have him on our side. Except I still hate his guts.

[Corvus9]

The problem with this move is that it's too late to help with card check, since Specter's defection has allowed the centrists to defect as well. It chafes that he was basically able to kill card check, and then gets to join our side in reward.

On the other hand, this makes the chances of a good healthcare bill without having to use reconciliation, which is just win.

[oddjob]

That was a response to oddjob.

Much obliged! While certainly I know of that (famous) movie I confess I've never watched it.

[oddjob]

Okay, here's a "dish" question. What is the generl Capitol Hill opinion of Sen. Orrin Hatch?