It's Going to get Ugly

With a month to go and mounting evidence that both McCain and the Republicans are slipping badly in the polls, you can bet that we are going to see a sustained and vicious assault on Obama for the next thirty days.  Indeed, the McCain campaign has more or less telegraphed its intentions in this regard.

I think for many of my contemporaries this sort of thing is anxiety producing.  We are used to such tactics bearing fruit for the GOP.  A lot of us have had out faith in our fellow citizens shaken over the last few decades as we have watched one bullshit right wing meme after another find fertile soil with key parts of the electorate, particularly my fellow white men.

So I suspect that in the next few weeks you might think that instead of Obama-Biden, that the ticket is Obama-Ayers, Obama-Wright, Obama-Rezko, hell, maybe Obama-Osama or Obama-Marx.  This time, however, I am not terribly concerned.  I feel like these tactics have lost a great deal of their potency -- and in fact, may well backfire in a time of great economic anxiety.  I also think that the changing electorate is far less susceptible to this claptrap than that which bought into the ugly Lee Atwater campaign of 1988.  (We should also remember that the Democrats won the popular vote for the presidency in 1992, 1996, and 2000, and that Kerry lost by a pretty narrow margin during a time of war -- in other words despite the mainstream media's incessant portrayal of the Dems as losers, that has not really been all that true since the 1980s.) 

In the end, I have a lot of faith in the appeal of both our policy positions and our candidate.  I think Obama and his team have stayed a step ahead of everyone throughout this race.  They have stayed cool at all times and they have done the hard work of establishing a ground game that is going to really impress everyone come election day.  So keep the faith while you keep working hard.  We're going to win this thing and it is going to be a very sweet day for us all.    

 

Comments

[Stephen]

It's too late for this to be effective; in 2004, the storylines about Kerry being a flip-flopper and a lying, traitorous coward in Vietnam were already established.

Another thing is that these attacks against Obama are far too complex and are too easy to either rebut or divert. Nobody knows who Rezko and Ayers are. When Rezko is brought up, Obama's people just need to ask how many houses John McCain owns. And the Ayers thing doesn't really resonate partly because the GOP has worked really hard at convincing Americans that terrorism doesn't happen on US soil unless it's committed by a dark-skinned Muslim.

As for Jeremiah Wright, I wonder just how hard they'll push him, what with Rod Parsley, John Hagee and Palin's good friend, Bishop Thomas "Them Bitchez is Witchez!" Muthee. Does the GOP really want to have this campaign be about who's church is weirder?

The other thing is just how are they going to target their limited resources? I know that the RNC is supposed to help out and they've got lots of money, but they've also got a multitude of Republicans in trouble, all of them crying for cash. With McCain only deciding now to give up in Michigan, spending money and time in lost causes like Iowa and Palin not able to carry any type of fundraising or campaigning weight, they're stretched pretty thin.

They're on defense everywhere, and they're running an increasingly shoddy campaign. I wouldn't be surprised if pretty much everyone associated with the McCain campaign ends up never working for a GOP Presidential campaign again.

[bigbadwolf]

many of the liberal folks i know are worried, but i live in a place (texas) and among an age cohort (40+) that can cause anxiety, if not despair, in any thinking liberal. what i have been saying for the past couple of months is that no one under 40 can reliably feel this election. we live, in our generation and particularly in our parents's generation, with too much causal prejudice in our atmosphere. my mom's nearly 80, in massachusetts, and big on obama, but she tells unsettling stories of older democrats making unpleasant comments. i've heard more than a few myself from middle-aged folks, people who think an overweight white guy must be thinking what they are.

i have a lot of confidence in the younger people. it's a different world. things really have changed and for the better. i have little doubt that they will break big for obama, and that the obama ground game is making sure that the youth vote we've been waiting for since 1972 materializes. but the feel of the electorate, if you're among older folks, including those that dominate the media, can make it seem as if this is still hanging in the balance. my sense is that it is not. the distaste the younger people manifested at mccain's debate demeanor---a demeanor i saw as fairly unremarkable, grumppy but not out of line with what we've seen over the years---was heartening.

[jncam]

Plouffe and Axelrod need to be given the benefit of the doubt. They beat Hillary's team with message and tactics. Obama's speech on race helped his standing at the begining of the Jeremiah Wright controversy. Eventually, the issue subsided with Obama breaking with his church. They know how to make issues go away. Similarly, the "drill, drill, drill" issue has subsided in potency. And their path to victory was proven successful in the primaries. Currently, the possibility of Obama taking Florida is becoming more of a reality each day. Plouffe doesn't bullshit. We need to take him at his word. I'm at the point where my heart warms up each time the gop uses the term "Chicago-style politics." It's the republican's time to whine.

[signsanssignified]

I agree with bigbadwolf’s and jncam's comments above but would only add that we should take nothing for granted. We need to be prepared for the onslaught that is sure to be launched momentarily. Unfortunately, the GOP has nothing else.

[low-tech cyclist]

I agree, Chas - they're going to throw shit, because that's all they've got left. But on a whole bunch of levels, it just isn't going to work this time.

The biggest reason right now, I think, is that McCain's completely destroyed his own credibility over the past few months. He's totally trashed his own "straight-talking maverick" brand, to the extent that it seemed laughable when Palin kept talking about herself and McCain as mavericks in Thursday's debate. Aside from people who will vote GOP no matter what, nobody's gonna believe him or his campaign if they come up with new smears.

And second is that people know the real shit's hit the fan, and aren't in the mood for trivial bullshit.

Team No-Drama's in control. They know what they're doing.

[oddjob]

I also wouldn't be surprised if in some weird way Obama-Liberace made an appearance.

[verplanck colvin]

Hey, I think we found the opening salvo:

"Our opponent though is someone who sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect, imperfect enough that he is palling around with terrorists who would target their own country," Palin said of Obama, also calling him an embarrassment.

The lowest shot taken by someone so high up in the campaign. The desperation is palpable to me; I hope it looks the same way to others. If the Obama campaign plays this as cool as Joe Biden did during his debate, I think it helps show how petty these attacks are.

[Sir Charles]

verplank,

I believe she made the attack while in Omaha -- Omaha for Chrissakes. They've pulled out of Michigan and are worried about losing the one electoral vote for Omaha.

That leads me to think people aren't buying what they're selling.

[Joe Klein's conscience]

Sir Charles:
She made the attack in Carson, CA, with Jon Voight in attendance. And Palin calling Obama an embarassment? She sure knows how to step in it.

[BruceMcF]

Well, the Q3 economic number is the last one out before the election. It will show that without a quick turnaround that nobody expects, the recession has started.

And there goes Ohio. The problem with the attack ads and robocalls and mailers is that without something to get people receptive for it, there's quite a bit of been there, done that sentiment around.

Without a new message about what he is going to do that is different to what Bush said he would do, there's too much job loss in too many traditionally Republican rural counties for McCain to get the Republican margins he needs.

And without Blackwell in there suppressing the vote in black districts and college towns and stealing as many votes as possible in the dirty counties, there doesn't seem to be anything that the dispirited Ohio Republican machine can do about it.

[oddjob]

And for a truly refreshing change of pace, the Democratic candidate has already launched a pre-emptive ad specifically designed to disarm the soon to arrive GOP attack!

Bob Shrum is definitely not running this campaign! :-)

[Nappies]

This is sure going to be one battle to the end.

[oddjob]

I didn't know the Obamas raised goats! Did you?

Hat tip, Sully.

You'll now have to excuse while I go find an available restroom so I can properly settle my stomach.......

[Sir Charles]

oddjob,

You made me feel good about campaigning in Virginia today. Taking this state from these racist assholes is going to be sweet.

[bigbadwolf]

virginia has given us the ralph stanley ad in support of obama. i feel like singing today.

[oddjob]

Taking this state from these racist assholes is going to be sweet.

I don't expect it to happen in my lifetime, but someday if we're ever prosperous enough that same demographic shift will happen even in the Deep South states like Alabama.

(I can dream, can't I? :-))

[Sir Charles]

Boy, taking Alabama -- I don't expect it in my lifetime. But Georgia may be doable.