I remain satisfied with the outcome of last night. Like many of you, I would love to see Obama just thrash this asshole, but I don't think our own impulses are necessarily the ones that win elections. Indeed, one of the most difficult things I find is to try to imagine how this stuff is perceived by low information voters, which generally speaking is the group that the undecideds will fall into. I've been steeped in politics since I was about 12, know more trivial facts about it than any mentally healthy person probably should (I am pretty sure that even after a dozen drinks I could name all of the presidents in order, the years in which they were elected and whom they defeated, including all those bewhiskered late 19th Century guys), and obsess daily about any number of issues. This makes me a supremely bad judge at times of what will sell with the voters who will actually decide our collective fate. But I've got a few thoughts about how last night affects the race:
1. As I think others have noted, this debate struck me as analogous to the 1980 Carter-Reagan debate. People were pretty damned unhappy with the state of the nation in that year and frustrated with Carter. Reagan was encumbered by a reputation for being an extremist and a lightweight. When he was able to give the appearance of being a genial, reasonable fellow with a clear sense of what he wanted to do, it was the end for Carter. (footnote- he wasn't all that reasonable.) Obama is in a sense in the Reagan role. People desperately want a change of direction, but they want to size up this young guy with limited experience and "exotic" background (as they like to say on TV, exotic being so much more polite than the "n" word). I think by showing that he is a calm, thoughtful, well-informed individual in contrast to the cranky old man sharing the stage with him, Obama won a crucial, possibly dispositive victory. To use another analogy this was a music rather than lyrics event, and the tune coming from Obama was soothing and reassuring rather than jarring and discordant like Mr. "Oops I crapped my pants." There will be other debates, but the first one usually seals the deal.
2. I was rather astonished to see McCain berate Obama about not knowing the difference between tactics and strategy, when in fact, McCain had it exactly wrong. (And who out there gives a fuck -- other than me.)
3. McCain's absolute refusal to make eye contact with Obama, which was one of the first things I commented on last night falls into that music-words category, and again, it's a tune people won't like. (Other than those who think Obama uppity I suppose.) It reminded me of making an appearance in federal court in New York a number of years ago to argue a case. I figured out who my opponent was -- we had not yet met as someone else had handled the case up to then -- walked over and said "I'm Sir Charles" and extended my hand to shake his. He left me hanging. He refused to shake my hand. I couldn't quite fathom what was happening and stood awkwardly for a second or two, stared at my hand and this douche bag lawyer and pivoted away determined to administer an unholy ass kicking on him. (Which I did by the way.) The bottom line -- you pull shit like this at your peril. It's transparently rude and most people react in a viscerally negative way to it. (I caught a little bit of a Fox show today where they seemed to be saying that Obama was rude for calling McCain "John" while McCain referred to Obama as Senator Obama.).
4. Although the first debate is the most important, Obama and his team can go back and look at the tape of the debate and get ready with some canned zingers for the next one. McCain obviously has stock answers and phrases that he will use over and over. Obama should be well situated now to unload a well delivered put down over say bear DNA or earmarks.
5. The "truth squadding" after the debates is always frustrating because of the network's need to engage in moral equivalence. If McCain said Obama was a former Black Panther who will rape your wife and your daughter before taking a piss on the American Flag and Obama said John McCain is a cranky 73-year old with a prostate the size of a mango, the networks would say well McCain is really a 72-year old with a prostate the size of a pomegranate, therefore both candidates lied.
Off to a union dinner/dance. I'll see what the construction workers think -- it's a group that is roughly equally divided between whites, blacks and Latinos, so it might be interesting to see how that affects sentiment.
