First of all, let me apologize to those who have complained about my color selection, as I am now finally in a situation where it's hard to tell the difference between dark green and dark purple.
Second, thanks to Chris Bowers pointing me at the data, here's a map of the primary contest between Bob Casey, Jr. and current governor Ed Rendell, who won 56-43, which should give us a flavor for the upcoming primary. Essentially, Rendell won not just Philadelphia, but also all the farther-flung counties in its media market, some of them by very large margins. He won State College and held Casey's margin in Pittsburgh and Harrisburg to just under 10%. While it's unlikely that the Presidential primary will exhibit the same level of polarization, this map isn't very comforting for Barack Obama. He's unlikely to win Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties by the 85-15 margins that Rendell earned; places like Reading and Bethlehem where Rendell won seem to have demographics that favor Hillary Clinton; and even if every student at Penn State voted for obama, it wouldn't be enough to make up the difference. To win, Obama's in-person appearances on his six-day bus tour will have to charm enough folks in the Johnstowns and Beavers and Williamsports of the world to hold the margins in rural and mediumtown PA to 60-40. It worked Iowa, and it almost worked in Texas, so we shall see.
