Sunday Miscellany and Open Thread

As the sequester deadline approaches, there's been a lot of noise about 800,000 Defense Department furloughs, but on the civilian side of the government, it seems that most agencies are doing nothing.  The sequester officially starts on March 1 (next Friday), but they've got to give us Federal employees 30 days' notice of a furlough.

I can't help but notice that 30 days takes us until after the current continuing resolution expires on March 27.  Its successor will either include all, some, or none of the sequestration cuts.  And the Republicans have been very clear that they will not threaten a government shutdown this time

So I'm wondering if there's a bit of bluff and kabuki going on over the sequester, and that maybe the only thing that matters is the CR.  If the government doesn't really make any sequestration cuts until after March 30 anyway, whatever was in the CR would be the law, regardless of the sequester.

On edit: I just saw Oddjob's link in the previous thread about the threat of air traffic controller furloughs.  Under the sequester as written, of course that would have to happen: it's written so that agencies have little if any room to pick and choose what they cut. But it's one of those things that slips by you until someone points it out. 

But that might be the magic word that gets businesses leaning on the GOP to strike a deal.  Throwing a monkeywrench in business travel gets the boardroom's attention.  And the sweet part is that not even those with their own private jets would be immune.  There's no express lane in the air traffic control system for that Gulfstream.

Other stuff I've been thinking about:

Self-driving cars.  Though I haven't said much about it here, I've become mildly obsessed with the subject - and this was even before my Achilles tendon blew out, leaving me unable to drive for the time being.   (The recovery's going well, thanks.)  I've been hoping they'll be a legal and commercial reality in 10 years, which is about the time my son would be eligible to get his learner's permit.  But a self-driving car would have been very handy in recent weeks.  I can get around a store well enough if I can get there, but my wife has to drive me on even the simplest errands, plus to my physical therapist's and orthopedist's appointments.

The USPS.  Contra Matt Yglesias, whatever may doom the USPS, it won't be because nowadays everyone uses email instead*.  Personal correspondence hasn't been the bulk of the Postal Service's business for a long, long time.  The real question is, will businesses and nonprofits continue to send out unsolicited mailings via snail mail?  My guess is that they will, because it's really hard for them to get people's attention online.

Every business I order something from online asks me for an email address, ditto every nonprofit I contribute money to online. I've got a separate account on Yahoo mail to give to all of these outfits, which I generally ignore absent a particular need, because reading it would be like drinking through a firehose.  They can send out a hundred million emails for close to free, but those emails probably don't do much for them now, and the returns will only keep diminishing.

On the other hand, I get a half-dozen pieces of snailmail a day, more or less, and I actually see these.  I have to give them at least enough attention to decide whether to throw them away right away.  Even if I don't want to send any money to the League of Conservation Voters this month, their name has registered with me.

The truth is that any online medium gets overwhelmed very quickly - email, Facebook, whatever.  Snailmail may eventually go away, but it's going to take some time because it has that advantage of tangibility.

So, what's on your minds on this sunny (in the DC area, at least) Sunday afternoon?

*Yglesias' thought, not mine.  Even email is starting to become somewhat old-fashioned, as best as I can tell: the kids stay in touch with each other via text and Facebook.

Comments

[Eric Wilde]

A little bass practice, put away the groceries, and off to pick up my daughters from her their lessons.

One of my daughters has longed for a violin forever. She cries over how hard it is; but, she still listens to encouragement. We haven't had to scold her to practice., and I don't intend to. The other is off to meet the violin instructor to see if she fits for piano lessons.

[kathy a.]

eric, it's great they are both learning music. how old are they?

one of the reasons we picked the school my kids attended K-8 was that they stressed music -- chorus, musical plays, recorders in about 4th or 5th, band after that. at one point, my son was learning cello and daughter taking pre-violin (with these teeny 1/4 sized instruments!), which was very cute, even if they did not stick with those instruments. my son took up electric bass, guitar, and he dabbles with keyboard and drums; daughter played saxophone for years. it's a source of joy and accomplishment; and teaches a set of skills that are useful in other arenas. (i think there are also studies correlating high achievement, especially in math, to music training.)

[Crissa]

I don't know if I've commented on it here: But I love the Google cars. They drive perfectly politely. I pass one every other week or so on my loop around the bay.

What I don't get anymore, is how companies believe they can compete with Google by putting out an inferior product for money. If Google ever decides to charge for some higher level of features, I'd be so on top of it. I have three GPS systems - I didn't actually go out and 'buy' any, one came with the phone, one with another, and one with the car. They're all crappier than Google's Navigation tool, which didn't cost me money. I just don't get it. They could even use the results from Google's tool and come out better than they did.

[kathy a.]

l-tc -- i think the sequester is going to have a dismal impact, in a lot of ways. it's not just scare and fluff. the air traffic controllers is just one set of problems, but it will have a definite impact on people needing to get places. TSA is not going to be speedy, either.

but cuts in service, furloughs, layoffs, and abandonment of projects will be happening all over the place. for example, grant-funded scientific and medical research -- we could well lose projects that have taken years to develop. DOD -- less readiness, more people unemployed or else making less than they planned. courts. food safety. FDA. CDC. FAA. ATF. disaster preparedness and relief efforts. law enforcement. education.

national parks are anticipating real problems; a local story focused on yosemite. more closures; could take a month longer to clear roads closed in winter; less garbage collection = more bears foraging in visitor areas; less rangers = people trampling the delicate roots of the giant trees they come to see. and etc.

i think there need to be a whole lot of stories about the impacts on each sector. people really are affected -- not just the workers -- when agencies we rely upon cannot do their jobs. the overall economic impact will, of course, be awful.

[kathy a.]

here is an interesting article on the price of public violence. it focuses on the impact of witnessing violence -- how the bystanders and neighbors are affected, not just the people wounded or killed.

we understand perfectly well that combat veterans may end up with PTSD, because of their exposure to violence. the same thing is true for people living in neighborhoods with violence, but that is not getting a lot of attention in discussions about guns. as if the numbers of gun injuries and deaths were not high enough to be convincing about the need for gun measures -- the true count of those affected is astronomically higher. we're not just talking grief, either -- but understood and documented and expected effects on those witnessing the violence.

[kathy a.]

from the NYT piece on effects of violence on others:

On the first day of school, when I met the social workers, Crystal Winfield Smith and Anita Stewart, they were dragging, unsure whether they could make it through another school year. Just two months earlier, in June, a 16-year-old sophomore, Shakaki Asphy, whom they had been very close to, was gunned down while standing on the porch of an abandoned building talking with a friend. That friend, Thomas, had already witnessed a number of other shootings, including one at age 10 when, at a party, the birthday girl, who was also 10, was hit by a stray bullet.

I sat in the social workers’ office when Thomas told Ms. Stewart and Ms. Winfield Smith that he wanted to hurt someone. At first I thought it was tough guy talk, but then I realized he was trying — the best he could — to be honest about some feelings he had, feelings that scared him. “You’ve got kids walking around who just are on guard with everything and everyone,” Ms. Winfield Smith told me. “It’s almost like you don’t have a moment to rest.”

this is another reason why it scares the crap out of me to hear all these proposals that "more guns" are the answer. your basic righteous gun owner can go on for hours about needing to defend himself -- but these kids in violent areas are genuinely scared of being shot, because they have seen it happen. guess which one gets labeled a "gang member"?

we need to chip away at the acceptability of guns as the answer, and in as many ways as we can. this is a very serious public health issue. the NRA types are working to take it in an even worse direction.

[Eric Wilde]

kathy,

I think the girls are a might bit young, at 4.5; but, Alisa has been asking for a violin and lessons pretty much since she could talk. Its rather astounding, actually. Leia, her twin sister, is mainly jealous; but, she has been persistently playing the piano at home.

My wife and I are currently having an argument about Leia's lessons. I prefer to be experimental and lenient about lessons, letting them drift from instrument to instrument as they please with a 1 year commitment. My wife thinks a 1 year commitment to an instrument is not nearly long enough and prefers to wait until Leia is a bit older and able to make a longer commitment.

Its hard to say which is the better approach. Leia is pretty clear she wants the piano lessons, though.

[kathy a.]

my daughter's stint with "pre-violin" was about age 5. if you think of music as a kind of language, it makes sense to start early -- learning the basics of sound and rhythm provides something they can build on, even if they go to different instruments, or are singing. a one year commitment for such young kids is a really big deal!

i'm not convinced that there is one "right" approach for every child. my kids had different passions, and learned in different ways sometimes. (they weren't twins, but since they were only 19 months apart, it was obviously easier for us when they went to the same school, had similar interests.)

[nancy]

Eric,

Our experience was that piano lessons provided solid musical training which was invaluable. Our son's musicality was evident -- but he didn't *love* piano. Then at about age ten, at a children's symphony performance, he picked up a French horn during intermission -- a number of instruments were set up in the lobby in a sort of musical 'petting zoo' and alone, he was able to coax a sound from it. Stayed in piano training and added the horn, which became his passion. He's been on horn hiatus for a while now, but will be back in the back row for an upcoming performance of Mahler's 2nd, an escape from his graduate school program's [at this point] confinements.

I'm not sure how many early string players move elsewhere musically if they lose their interest. The other string instruments are physically daunting until later. Cellos, for example are pretty darn big. But at any rate, I'd suggest the joy of it is what's essential.

[kathy a.]

french horn? that's a hard instrument; one of my daughter's classmate/fellow orchestra members played it. impressive!

i was always disappointed that our son didn't take up the double bass -- he'd be great, having played a little (1/4 size) cello and a lot of electric bass/guitar, and some acoustic guitar. the double bass is not a very transportable instrument, but the coolness factor for our family would have gone up by about a million points.

[low-tech cyclist]

kathy - I'm not saying the sequester won't have quite an impact if it happens, just that a lot of it won't happen on March 1 - won't happen until after the CR deadline, actually, which means that whatever cuts are made, the Congress will have to vote on them.

It may be that (a) the defense cuts may happen right away, and (b) some other high-profile cuts, e.g. air traffic control, national parks, may happen right away too. I don't know.

But if the GOP thinks it's going to say, "we didn't vote for these cuts, they were just part of the sequester," I think they may be about to get played. And if they have to sign their names to specific cuts, the less likely those cuts are to happen.

[low-tech cyclist]

Eric - I don't know much about teaching kids music, but my son's a year older than your daughters, and it's hard for me to imagine a kid that age making a commitment of any sort longer than a year. They barely understand a year at that age. Hell, last fall, my son had enough trouble with an eight-week commitment to a soccer league. I think if you can spare the money and the girls seem committed to a year with an instrument, go for it.

[nancy]

Weirdest Academy Awards Award. Disjointed. Clumsy. Incoherent. Awkward. Humorless. And they had a good field of work to display this year.

What-ever.

[nancy]

french horn? that's a hard instrument

'Tis indeed. I still have the note that came home from the parochial school band teacher, advising us to arrange lessons, because he saw some serious talent afoot. Bless his heart.

Thank an underpaid school band teacher, when you have time.

[kathy a.]

oh, i love all the underpaid band teachers!

ltc -- there will be wreckage. "obama's fault" is not a good answer.

[oddjob]

but will be back in the back row for an upcoming performance of Mahler's 2nd

Oh, is that a war horse! Lots & lots of brass for that one! I sang in a performance of that when I was a freshman at Penn State. We sang it with the Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra and Michael Tilson Thomas conducted.

("AUFERSTEHEN! JA, AUFERSTEHEN!")

[oddjob]

the double bass is not a very transportable instrument

True, but it beats the hell out of living with a concert harp! THAT instrument is one for which one suffers. :)

It's big, unwieldy, very fragile, and extremely subject to temperature and humidity changes (such that if one starts rehearsal in a cold hall and the heat's been turned on it's quite likely you're going to have to stop rehearsing and return the instrument more than once before you've finished).

But then you hear it being played.............

Talk about sublime!

[oddjob]

(and retune the instrument, not "return" the instrument.)

[low-tech cyclist]

I love the Google cars. They drive perfectly politely. I pass one every other week or so on my loop around the bay.

I think self-driving cars are going to set off quite a sequence of changes. I think we* will live long enough to see auto fatalities in this country go from the tens of thousands to the thousands to the hundreds per year. And once they get the OK to travel without a passenger aboard, renting cars will be easy, even out here in exurbia, and you'll only need to own as much car as you routinely use, which I think will eventually lead to very compact and therefore fuel-efficient one-person cars being common.

The thing that's really going to slow the changes down is the sheer durability of automobiles. Cars last 10-15 years these days, so it'll take awhile for self-driving cars to become the norm simply due to the number of legacy cars on the road.

*Speaking as a fiftysomething who is aware that many of the commenters here are in that general age range.

[Eric Wilde]

Yeah, my daughters don't really understand the time frame of a year. They do understand that committing to lessons means they have to practice and show up to the lessons - which is something they've learned to cope with for ballet already. I'm fine if Leia even just takes lessons for two months and calls it quits - at least she's had the opportunity to try the instrument a little.

Double-basses are extremely cool. Even as a bass player, though, I've shied away from the double-bass. Fretless instruments don't suit me well as my ear isn't well trained.

I did play a harp for a while and found it too temperamental. It was always out of tune and too much effort to keep in tune. Its after the harp that I moved to the bass.

LTC, self-driving cars seem poised to change transportation. I already have ditched my car (live in Silicon Valley). Public transportation has been my mainstay for a few years now. We just got a couple Zip Cars at the office and I could see how self-driving Zip Cars or a similar business model could succeed well around here. My fervent wish is that my daughters never need learn how to drive.

[low-tech cyclist]

My fervent wish is that my daughters never need learn how to drive.

From your lips to God's ears. That's exactly how I feel about my son.

I could see how self-driving Zip Cars or a similar business model could succeed well around here.

Right now, Zip Cars can only work in fairly dense areas, since you need a big enough customer base within walking distance of where the cars are actually parked. The self-driving capability is what will make the Zip Car model viable in suburbs and exurbs like mine, once the car can drive itself to you, rather than your having to walk to the car.

[kathy a.]

well, i discovered that i am totally unsuited to be the responsible adult in the car with a learning driver. my adult kids agree; the experience scarred us all for life.

but i don't see completely doing away with the need for driving skills with self-driving cars. you know how machines go wacky sometimes? how those navigation systems sometimes take you to a road that no longer exists, or into a flood, and etc.? shouldn't there be some kind of over-ride for emergencies?

[low-tech cyclist]

Maybe so, kathy, but even though I consider myself a good driver (don't we all think that about ourselves, though?), I'd put my money on even the current generation of Google's self-driving cars being a safer driver than I am. So if I have to choose between my son driving a car in 2023, or the self-driving car of 2023 doing the driving for him, I'm going with the car. In a heartbeat.

I'd say the backup can be hitting some sort of override button that disengages the transmission and gently brakes the car to a stop; I don't think actual driving ability on the part of the passenger needs to be part of the package. If the computer malfunctions, once the car stops, you get out and call for assistance.

[Eric Wilde]

gotta agree, ltc. with one exception:

If the computer malfunctions, once the car stops, you get out and call for assistance.

The call should be made automatically by the car.

[kathy a.]

there have been times when i decided that i just needed to get out of a place; go elsewhere, right away, for safety reasons. also, of course, times when something erupted as i was driving kids and needed to pull over right away; and times when i needed to change direction for other reasons.

maybe all that will be cool with the Automobile of the Future; but you know, i just stopped trusting these predictions about the wonderous future when nobody marketed the personal Jetsons-style hovercraft for commuter use.

[nancy]

The only car I want to ride in, is one I'm driving.

World's worst backseat driver speaking. I brake obviously and early from the passenger seat. ;)

[low-tech cyclist]

you know, i just stopped trusting these predictions about the wonderous future when nobody marketed the personal Jetsons-style hovercraft for commuter use.

There is only one suitable response to that: http://xkcd.com/864/

[Eric Wilde]

Beautiful, LTC! I love xkcd.

[low-tech cyclist]

How could one not? As James Fallows recently said, Randall Munroe is a national treasure.

[Crissa]

The self-driving cars only use GPD to get directions. They use lidar to actually navigate. It can see people, lanes, objects, and knowns how to follow roads without GPS and knows how far it has driven.

And all of them can be driven by someone in the front seat (which is how they're run now) to take over when they don't know where they are.

What gets me - now that I've used the Navi in my car, the one in my mom's car, the one from the phone company, and Google... None hold a candle to the simple, free version from Google. So I don't worry about bad directions from Google.