Prediction Time

Well, I guess it is that time when we make our best guesses about what is going to happen on Tuesday.  I feel pretty good, although I am fuming about the travesty that is early voting in parts of Florida and Ohio -- the deliberate attempts to disenfranchise American voters by Republicans has been a constant and disgusting aspect of this campaign.  It would be nice if once this election is over, the mainstream media focuses a bit on this truly outrageous effort.  Every one looking at those lines snaking endlessly around polling places -- turning voting into some sort of endurance sport -- should feel a sense of shame at the betrayal of American democracy.  Kudos to everyone who hangs in there and votes -- fighting those who would take away their voices. 

With that out of the way, what to expect on Tuesday.  Well those of us who have subscribed to the adage "keep calm and read Nate Silver" are feeling reasonably good. 

I am predicting that Obama will win with 332 electoral votes, carrying all of the swing states except North Carolina.  I have gone back and forth on Florida -- I was initially going to say 303 electoral votes -- but I have the sense that the intensity of Democratic voters generally and in that state specfically is higher than the likely voter models have predicted.  We shall see.  But 303 would be just fine with me as well.

Popular vote guess -- Obama 51 and Romney 48.

As to the Senate, I think that the news is also good.  Shockingly good really, when one thinks about the basic mathematics of the race -- 23 Democratic seats at stake to only ten Republican -- and the fact that we are defending open seats in North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Virginia, as well as the seats of vulnerable incumbents in places like Montana and Missouri.  The Republicans only needed to hold their ten and pick off four of these seven vulnerable seats and they were home free.  But fortunately, Olympia Snowe retired, Elizabeth Warren decided to enter electoral politics, and Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock won primaries.  As a result, I believe that we are going to pick up at least three seats -- Massachusetts, Maine (with independent Angus King), and Indiana, while losing two -- Nebraska and North Dakota (the latter still possibly winnable due to the excellent campaign of Heidi Heitkamp).  I think we are going to manage to hold difficult seats in Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, Montana, and New Mexico. 

I also feel like we have a shot at a surprise pick up in Nevada.  I think that Obama is going to run stronger in Nevada than the polls have shown to date, just as Reid did in 2010.  As a result I think Shelley Berkley has a decent chance of knocking off Dean Heller.   There are enough variables here that we could actually have a gain of 2-3 Democratic seats, which would be an unbelievable result.  Right now I am betting on an end result with the Democrats holding 54 seats.

As to the House, I really have no clue.  I think the Dems will gain, but I have no feel for the magnitude of such a gain, other than it seems unlikely to yield a majority.  Let's say a net gain of 12 seats, leaving the Republicans with 230 and the Dems with 205.  If the other things I've predicted above happen, we can live with the disappointment. 

Please join in and give me your thoughts. 

And read this by all means -- it made me laugh my ass off.

 

Comments

[kathy a.]

my prediction is: wednesday cannot come soon enough.

[janinsanfran]

The Senate seat that mystifies me is Tester in Montana. Although Tester is ahead in most of the polls, even Nate Silver just assumes he is a goner. I worked a little in 2006 in Montana and the guy was a tough cookie. I don't quite get why we all seem to have written Montana off, though I sure haven't had time to pay any real attention.

[Sir Charles]

jan,

I am predicting that Tester will win.

[paula]

Kathy--don't hold your breath.
I will spend tomorrow calling unregistered voters in NH, because they can both register and vote on Tuesday. This work is for the Obama campaign, but basically a GOTV initiative. I have my doubts about him winning in that state. Too many libertarian wing nuts who don't like any incumbents. And, they see Romney as their hometown boy, much more than anyone in Massachusetts. We see him...well, we don't see him very often. And that's fine.
I like your odds, SC, but expect it to be a bit closer. Whatever it is, the Republicans will call it a fix and we'll spend years in litigation, trying to sort it all out. Now, with the Sandy situation and so many new ways to vote--in a tent, online, by fax, next week, early, late, by telepathy, whatever--expect a data collection nightmare. You know that will be the case. The birthers will be reborn as the election stealers. BHO could win 90-10, and the crazies will still call foul.

[Sir Charles]

I changed post to make that clear.

[oddjob]

I am not confident that Warren will be elected. I also think John Tierney will probably lose to Richard Tisei and thus as of next January my representative will be a Republican.

[oddjob]

Here's something else that might make you laugh your ass off:

“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted Democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s the marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals, and I think could make the difference.”

- George Will (this past Sunday)

[Bill H]

I have never understood the need to be able to predict outcomes. I am not being critical of it, I simply don't understand it. Why not just wait and see what happens? Have we become a nation of compulsive gamblers? I come here regularly, but have recently read only the first few lines of posts and, realizing that it merely another discussion of polls and likely winners, have clicked on out. It's nt unique to here, and I have not been writing at my blog very much lately because there is not much discussion going on. The only discussion is about polls and who is going to win.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

I still think Obama will do better than that, though the failure of the press to make enough of the 'post-truth' campaign, the abysmal first debate, and the fact that Romney managed to keep from making many new pratfalls after the nomination -- plus the failure of the Democrats to know how to play "Republican Whack-a-Mole" (where the opponent has so many weaknesses that the Democrats can never decide which ones to aim at until it's too late) all kept Obama from the rout he should have had. But he'll have at keast Sir C's prediction.

In the Senate, I think Heitkamp will win, and you forgot Richard Carmona, who should beat Jeff Flake in Arizona. (There is really a sreong Hispanic surge this year in the state, and Flake is better than most of the Republicans but still not a great campaigner.)

There are still three possible surprises, two negative and one more-or-less possible. I would not be stunned if either Allen in VA or Linda McMahon -- who has been all over the place with some very good ads -- pulled off a surprise, and, incredibly, Kerrey is only a couple of points behind Fisher -- and that was before the Hagel endorsement. It's still a long-shot, but not as unthinkable as it seemed a few months ago.

Assuming the surprises are a wash, either none happens or Kerrey and one of the Republicans win, that gives us a 5 seat pick up -- amazing when we remember that three other incumbents were looked on as very vulnerable going into the race, Klobuchar, Bill Nelson and Sherrod Brown, and they aren't even seen as at risk any more. And if Kerrey wins and the rest go as I predict, this will make three out of four elections where we swept the board in all competitive races. (If only we hadn't snoozed through 2010 and assumed that the crazies would beat themselves, we might be in shot of 60 solid.)

The House -- well, I just haven't been following it. I do hope that Paula's work pays off and that we retake both seats in NH, though it looks doubtful -- a split is more likely, and I think Obama will hold the state. My pure gut feeling is that it will finally wind up very close, and maybe we won't know for a while with the Sandy Effect and a number of very close races going to the recount stage. But I have nothing solid to back that up.

[And, in replying to oddjab after gitting F5, agree that Tisei will win -- and wonder if, in a closely divided House he might consider 'going Independent.' Think Warren will carry it off unless there is a Sandy Effect in Mass, with Democratic areas substantially harder hit than Republicans.

And one last thing. With the number of Republican Senate races collapsing, and Romney being seen as a sure loser, I wonder if Republican turnout will be down and that we will flip a few surprising House seats -- and might have done better if we fought harder.

But I hope somebody does a serious study of the Sandy Effect -- and Tuesday's impending storm -- at least in retrospect, and if anyone has done an article trying to use it in predictions, please let me know.]

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

BTW, have the capchas gotten harder and blurrier, or is it my eyes getting worse?

[low-tech cyclist]

My predictions from the Wednesday open thread: Obama wins the popular vote by 2-3%, wins all the swing states except North Carolina and perhaps Florida, and we pick up 1-2 Senate seats, net. We wind up with 200-210 House seats, but still no gavel for Nancy, alas.

George Will has moved into the waste-of-oxygen zone.

And to anyone concerned that anyone's paying attention to Matt Stoller and his ilk, the answer, according to Pew's latest survey, is apparently not: 98% of liberal Dems plan to vote for Obama, with 1% each in the Romney and 'don't know' camps.

The numbers for conservative Republicans are 96% for Romney, 3% for Obama, and 2% don't know. (I know those don't add up to 100%, and I'm sure Pew does too, but that can happen with rounding 3 numbers.) So there are fewer defections on our side than on theirs.

[oddjob]

a Sandy Effect in Mass, with Democratic areas substantially harder hit than Republicans

Relatively speaking Sandy's impact on Massachusetts was light. So far as I'm aware the heaviest damage was on the shoreline along the Massachusetts southern coast and my impression is that at least a chunk of that is usually more likely to vote Republican than Democrat. I haven't seen any news suggesting the damage will interfere with voting.

[low-tech cyclist]

I have never understood the need to be able to predict outcomes. I am not being critical of it, I simply don't understand it. Why not just wait and see what happens?

Bill - I'm actually pretty sympathetic to this viewpoint, and at least as far as stuff like arguing over whether the polls are skewed or not, I've been in the "we'll find out soon enough" camp for a couple of weeks now.

But I think Josh Marshall had some good words early this morning to describe where the campaign is right now:

Sometime, perhaps yesterday, the campaign took that turn into something like a fugue state.

The spin and the chatter continues, sort of. But it starts not to matter. The arguments are really done. The table is set. The cake is baked. Pick your hackneyed metaphor. Now the actual voting process gets underway and all of that fades into the background. It’s almost like in a card game where you show your cards at the end. This is where everyone turns over their cards. Nothing really to talk about.

Certainly at this point, anyone who would visit this blog already understands what's at stake in this election; there's no point in hammering on it any further. We'll go vote tomorrow, and some among us will be helping out with GOTV.

Meanwhile, we might as well take two minutes to say what we think tomorrow's outcome will be. It's less a need than just pour passer les temps, if I haven't screwed up the French.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Btw, can we put together a list of House races to watch and chart during the coverage. There are probably at least two dozen that deserve coverage, maybe twie that many, especially in the Sandy area -- New Jersey and Michael Grimm and there's at least one other NY seat, can't find it, that Sandy has switched Democatic. Then there's Tierney-Tisei and the AL seats in both Dakotas (probably safe Republican but ND is at least close and Kristi Noem is an awful representative. Then there's Allen West, Walsh-Duckworth, and a lot more -- the Daily Kos daily digest lists a few of them. Loooks like a lot of seat switching may be coming, with some major blue dogs and weak Dems -- Tierney, Matheson, Boren's seat -- will go, but so will a lot of weak Republicans (including, possibly, Bilbray). In fact, Politico has a list of the Republicans most desperate for cash and it's

Dan Lungren (CA-07), Brian Bilbray (CA-52), Judy Biggert (IL-11), Dan Benishek (MI-01), Chip Cravaack (MN-08), Frank Guinta (NH-01), Charlie Bass (NH-02), Chris Gibson (NY-19), Jim Renacci (OH-16), and Quico Canseco (TX-23).

Some of these would be very welcome losses. Anyone else want to thorw some districts into the list, then I'll list them all before the polls close in one chart, along with the key states in the Pres and the Senate races worth watching.

[oddjob]

I hope somebody does a serious study of the Sandy Effect

You aren't the only one curious about Sandy's effects.

[oddjob]

if I haven't screwed up the French.

I don't speak French and so used Google Translate to learn this translates as "to pass the time". :)

[oddjob]

pour passer les temps

Just for the hell of it I checked to see what the German translation was. The literal translation of the German is "to beat the time to death" (um die Zeit totzuschlagen).

:)

[oddjob]

Actually, Prup I'm not sure Tierney/Tisei merits watching as a barometer of the House in general. Tierney's got a personal issue thanks to the activities of his wife and in-laws and that's skewing things rather heavily. I think if that scandal wasn't occurring Tisei would not be likely to win, but that the race would be at least somewhat competitive and so then it would merit watching as a barometer.

[Sir Charles]

Bill,

The prediction things is simply a way to have a little fun and to test one's ability to sift through the polls and poll aggregators and see what kind of skill one brings to the task. As an election lover from way back, I like to see how I stack up against the pros. Alas, there is a fairly tight band of opinion right now (except for right wing hacks) and it is hard to really stand out.

Jim,

My folks have been visiting from Massachusetts. I don't think there is much of a Sandy effect on the Bay State and I think oddjob is correct -- the areas where it hit are the more pro-Brown parts of the state. I don't see any impact. People in Massachusetts are pretty hardy when it comes to weather related issues and the stomr only struck a glancing blow.

On the Senate, I would be pleasantly surprised if either Heitkamp or Carmona win. I am skeptical though given the levels of ticket splitting it will require. We are already dealing with that in Indiana, Missouri, and Montana. I think it becomes a heavy lift to expect to go 5 for 5 in such races. My two wild cards are Tester winning and Berkley possibly surprising, which would still lead to a great outcome.

oddjob,

Hope you are wrong on Tierney. That's my old district and it would be crushing.

[oddjob]

That's my old district and it would be crushing.

And I'm sure you remember that about 20 years ago it was represented by a relatively moderate Republican (Peter Torkildsen).

[low-tech cyclist]

oddjob - that's gotta say something about the German worldview. :-)

Prup - to pick up 5 seats, net, we'd have to win every Senate race this year except TN, MS, TX, UT, and WY.

Not gonna happen. And if we get close, I'd just as soon lose Nebraska than have Bob Kerrey win, and then proceed to dick around with us every time we need his vote.

Not to mention, if Kerrey's back in the Senate, he'll quickly become a regular on the Sunday morning political talk shows, supposedly but not really representing the Democratic side of the issues. Kinda like they used to have Lieberman on their shows to do, before he lost that primary to Ned Lamont.

[oddjob]

oddjob - that's gotta say something about the German worldview. :-)

Perhaps, although we use the expression, too (we "kill time").

[nancy]

faire passer le temps

I plan to take the time during the vote counts to brush up on my French. While breathing deeply. I fear we're in for a long wait.

[kathy a.]

aaaack! i'm making protective hand gestures, and thinking i should add garlic to the shopping list -- because i cannot accept 2000 as the "new normal" for presidential elections. (although that seems to be the shit news of the day -- first, they make it hard to vote; then they contest the living crap out of things.)

[oddjob]

Interesting, and cautionary, piece by James Fallows:

What If the GOP Loses? 'Atlas Shrugged' vs. 'The Fire Next Time'

[nancy]

About the Tester race. I have to believe that a good many Montanans will react unfavorably to so much ouside, untraceable and shady money pouring into the state. Polls show 54% in support of I-166 (No, Corporations are Not People Dammit initiative). Tester ought to hold on to those same votes. Don't know that Silver's got this one figured.

***

So oddjob. What does Fallows correspondent #1 Atlas-Shrugged do? Self-deport himself and his family to an offshore job in an untaxed paradise? Sans neighbors I gather.

I read an interesting story today, which I won't link since I can't be sure of its authenticity. But it appeared to be a sincere response to Mr. Timeshare Boss Guy in Florida telling [warning via memo] his employees how to vote [that would be for Romney] if they expect to retain employment. Her point as one of those employees -- they work already without benefits, on minimal commissions, and at will. He makes mucho profit, building the newest and largest home in Florida and vastly expanding his exploitive holdings, off of their collective low-wage efforts. So, says she -- take a very long hike buster.

We are certainly living in a strange-time iteration of the commonweal.

[oddjob]

No, Corporations are Not People Dammit initiative

Apparently there's a ballot question about that on the ballots in my congressional district, too.

nancy, that's exactly what I was thinking about correspondent #1. He ought to move to Haiti and revel in his libertarian paradise, a place where you can have it all as long as you can afford the bodyguards and the bribes.

What a d**k. :)

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Prup - to pick up 5 seats, net, we'd have to win every Senate race this year except TN, MS, TX, UT, and WY.

I know. I was sure, most of last year, we'd lose our majority, but the incredible thing is that we are within margin of error or better on every one of them.

A couple of points. North Dakptans are used to ticket splitting, remember they had elected Democratic Senators since the Reagan Administration and Milton Young, even though they voted Republican in the Presidency.

And there was a comparison by a group funded by Paul Loeb that ran in the HuffPo that looked at the differences on issues between Kerrey and Deb Fischer -- remember, whose only previous 'claim to fame' was that she was endorsed by the ex-Governor of Alaska -- and on every point of disagreement -- and that's all but about three issues -- Kerrey is right and Fischer is wrong. Yes, Kerrey is obnoxious, weird, and not too bright, but that's true about every Nebraska Senator of either party -- remember James Exon or Roman Hruska (or oldtimers like Ken Wherry)-- I think they put it in their constitution after George Norris left office.

Also five ex-Republican Senators, Rudman, Danforth, Simpson, Kassebaum, as well as Hagel have come out supporting Kerrey over Fischer. We need a sane opposition party, and this might be the first chance for a push back towards getting one.

[low-tech cyclist]

We need a sane opposition party, and this might be the first chance for a push back towards getting one.

OK, maybe if Kerrey wins, then switches parties, that works. I'd be good with that.

[Sir Charles]

I'll take Kerrey over Ben Nelson. And certainly over Deb Fisher.

Jim,

I just think that this much ticket splitting is unlikely to happen. We probably won't get that lucky.

We could have everything go perfectly and end up with 55, but I think that might be too much to ask.

[Sir Charles]

I will be live blogging the election -- as well as fretting and drinking -- starting some time around 7:00 PM tomorrow, right as the Virginia polls close.

Comforting thought -- one of my partners is doing voter protection in Virginia tomorrow and she was on a conference call with 1,552 other lawyers and the campaign last night. Think about that.

[beckya57]

I don't drink, Sir C, but will certainly be fretting. Here in the great NW I am fully expecting our gubernatorial race to go into overtime for the 3rd time in a row.

I think Obama will win and the Dems will keep the Senate and the Rethugs will keep the House, unfortunately. I really hope the presidential race doesn't come down to Ohio, since the loathsome GOP regime there is working overtime to try to steal it. >:-((

[nancy]

Comforting thought -- one of my partners is doing voter protection in Virginia tomorrow and she was on a conference call with 1,552 other lawyers and the campaign last night. Think about that.

Excellent. I think I shall. Think about that.

Becky, I saw that GOP volunteers thought it would be helpful to accept and offer to deliver ballots, collected at traffic slow-down street corners in King County, to precinct HQs. Nice work, no? Sheesh. Yeah, just hand us your ballot and we'll deliver it for ya.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

A few late night notes. Kerrey may talk like a jerk and do his share of 'Fulbroghting' but his announced positions are mostly right down the line progressive, from SSM to pro-choice to supporting Pell Grants and letting the Bush tax cuts expire. He opposes the DREAM Act, only so-so on gun control, and would delay SS retirement age and cost-of-living increases as well as raising the cap. Still it's a strong platform, especially for Nebraska.

Even Rasmussen shows both Tester and Baldwin tied in their races, and I still feel that the Dems will out do the polls by 2-3%, both because most people are saying Romney is already toast and because of the 'I'm voting Democatic, but I'd never let my husband know' factor.

And finally, Nevada announces the totals of early voters by party, and right now, with 56% of the total of 'active voters' in, the numbers are 44% Dem, 37% Republican, 19% 'other.' (Interestingly, the lead comes from early voters, the Republicans have a lead in the mail-in category, which is much smaller.)

I still think we'll be smiling tomorrow at this time. Again, any Congressional races worth watching -- not because they are bellwethers, but because they are interesting?

Finally, on legal challenges, I have the feeling none of the results from New Jersey are going to be accepted without a suit given the potentials with email voting. (You can set it up so it is safer, but not at the last minute.) If the Presidential race turns on it -- which it shouldn't -- get ready for 2000 all over again, only screwier.

[Emma]

Best wishes to you all for tomorrow. I've been following the race with apprehension -- thank goodness for Nate Silver. My son linked to a blue world map on Facebook today, captioned 'Dear Friends in the USA, Don't Vote for Romney, signed, the Rest of the World' -- just about sums it up. All fingers duly crossed.
Venceremos!

[jeanne marie]

Light commenting from me. I am sitting in Shady Grove Hospital as they prep my dad for a seven hour spinal surgery. Keep him in your thoughts.

I voted early last week using the in person absentee ballot. Got to see Bill Clinton stump for Obama at my kids' high school on Saturday night. Living in Virginia and a battlefield state has meant we have had numerous opportunities to see the candidates or surrogates.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

I'll have a chart for ttpnight's closing times up shortly, but just notice that Jim Cramer is the only person around -- of all lunatics -- to agree with my prediction that Romney would not get 100 EVs. (His map -- and mine -- thought Obama might have a chance at Texas -- never realistic, which is why I should have changed my number early. I also thought -- and would not be surprised -- that AL might be a surprise win based on the 'Christian Conservative anti-Mormon' factor plus a cooling of Tea Party sentiment in the state, which wasn't on his list.)

Actually, I still would have lost at 125, because the two changes give a net of 127. Without AL you have 136. And I could still see the totsl sinking that low, though I admit that Romney was better at campaigning, if you don't have a press pointing out his lies -- and that Democrats still haven't figured out how to talk to their best audiences. Anyway, let me get that chart finished -- first draft, ask you to add Congressional Races I miss and then I'll rewrite it just before the live blogging -- assuming I don't collapse, as always.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

jm -- he will be in my thoughts and all good wishes to him.

[low-tech cyclist]

Jeanne Marie - hope your dad's surgery goes OK.

[Beckya57]

JM--me too. And best of luck to our democracy today.

[kathy a.]

thinking of your dad, jeanne marie. hope all goes well.

[Sir Charles]

JM,

Wishing you and your father the best.

Emma,

It is always amusing to see the overseas polling on our presidential election. I think I saw one recently where Obama was up by 85-9, which really says a lot about how batshit insane our Republican Party is.

Jim,

I wouldn't rely on Jim Cramer for stock picking, much less electoral prognostications.

Romney is a cinch for 200 electoral votes. I don't think he will get much beyond that, but there really is no doubt that he will carry every McCain state. The electorate remains that polarized.

My Senate picks assume Baldwin and Tester winning, although I remain worried about the latter. My one real upset pick is Berkley in Nevada. I think the Silver State will once again surprise with its Democratic margin.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Em and I just back from voting -- new polling place, major disorganization, but very heavy turnout. We were #118 + 119, I think in our ED, and other EDs had much longer lines than ours. But we did our duty -- even voted for Simcha Felder for State Senate. He's a fanatic homophobe and conservative, but better than his predecessor (he was a closet queen and corrupt as hell, Felder is, I think honest and his homophobia -- he had tpo be removed from the chamber physically after the City Council passed a gay rights bill -- at least comes from 'honest religious bigotry' and not covering up. And the Republican is rottener than Krueger was, Russian, crooked, and played the religious card viciously in the special (he won by about 13 votes after recounts and after the Senate had already left and disbanded the old district, but he's still playing the incumbent card).

The only differences in our picks -- assuming that my worries about Allen are unfounded -- Murphy closed strong and seemingly has that cinched -- and that Warren wins -- are Heitkamp (who is running very strongly against the extremely unpopular Rick Berg -- I'd give her a great chance if you realize how many types of people dislike the 'slumlord.') and Carmona -- and I still think that there will be a Hispanic surge that will carry the election for him and even make the Pres closer than predicted. Kerrey is a 'maybe, who knows, but doing a lot better than expected' toss-up.

So you see 55, I see 57, maybe 58 and whoodathunkit last year? (I'm giving NJ to Menendez, but it may take months before he's officially seated if there is too much of a fight over Jersey returns.)

[Joe S]

Prup, my wife has chewed me out about another 500 books (She thinks I have too many books, projects, papers, and other reading materials already). In addition, she regularly calls me a "hoarder." I'm going to have to take you up on your offer to donate 250 books to charity plus one for every vote over 100 electoral votes Mitt Romney gets.

[oddjob]

She thinks I have too many books, projects, papers, and other reading materials already

My mom, who grew up in a family full of readers, married a reader, raised a family of readers and enjoys it herself, refers to it as "the reading disease".

:)

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

My wife agrees with your wife, and I'm already picking books out. But I said for one vote over 125 -- which should have been my bet. Anyway, probably will throw in the extras.

[nancy]

Another story regarding the shady money groups operating ostensibly in Montana. Frontline and ProPublica partnered to produce it.

I guess we'll find out today how well these tactics are working.

jeanne marie, good wishes.