Gallup Goes Galt

Read this whiny, petulant post by Frank Newport, President of Gallup, and share my sense of derision.  Really, it is an amazing amalgam of disingenuousness and wounded privilege -- and as Salon notes, a clear attack on Nate Silver for having the gall to slap down the biggest name in polling.

First, the disingenuousness:  Newport tries to make the case that basically they got the election right, having done a final poll with Romney in the lead 50-49.  In so doing, he ignores Gallup's polls very close to the date of the election that showed Romney with a 5 or 6 point lead, clearly a preposterous take on the race.  One gets the sense that Gallup, after an alleged Sandy-induced hiatus, simply pushed its numbers towards a 50-50 race in the hopes of minimizing the damage to its reputation that being so far off would do.  Newport also suggests that Obama is only going to win by 50-48, meaning they only missed the race by two points.  However, as the final votes get counted, it is conceivable that Obama will prevail 51-47 (already it is 51-48) as his lead has grown to just under 3.5 million votes.  In reality, Gallup missed the margin in the race by four or five points, not really all that impressive.  Newport does not even bother to give an accurate percentage of the vote thus far nor does he let on that there are still hundreds of thousands of likely Obama votes still out there.  (Obama was likely hurt by Sandy due to the depressed turnout in voter rich blue states like New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut -- it looks to me like this may have shaved 1 million votes from his total.)  Newport insists that the presidential campaign was truly a volatile affair and that Obama may have gained 5 points in the final week because of Sandy.  This is poppycock (which is Dutch for "soft shit").  The defining characteristic of this race, at least as seen through the eyes of the aggregators, was its overall stability.

Speaking of aggregators, Newport then turns his wrath on them (read Nate Silver) for having the temerity to call out Gallup on its outlier likely voter model for the last few months of the campaign.  One senses Newport's fury at these presumptuous upstarts attacking the grandaddy of them all.  He threatens that if these aggregators keep doing that thing they do, that companies like Gallup may cease polling altogether.  Really.  So then what the fuck does Gallup do to pay Mr. Newport's no doubt considerable salary.

Here's the thing -- if Gallup ceases polling, others will happily step into the void.  And it seems likely that they will do a better job.

So quit your bitching Frank and either get better or get out.  You won't be missed. 

 

Comments

[oddjob]

He threatens that if these aggregators keep doing that thing they do, that companies like Gallup may cease polling altogether. Really.

If he's a Republican then he should realize this is known as the invisible hand of the free market at work.

[kathy a.]

that just -- makes no sense. it is kind of strange that one set of responses to the election is "i'ma take my ball and go away."

seriously, a polling outfit is going to stop polling? businesses are going to fire their workers in protest, to show how serious they are about business? unhappy texans (or others -- i read someplace that there are petitions from malcontents in over half the states) are going to secede?

it's tempting to say, "there, there. let's talk more after nap-time, OK?"

[oddjob]

LOL!

[nancy]

Really, it is an amazing amalgam of disingenuousness and wounded privilege ...

Bowing to no man, here's Romney's disingenuousness , also on full display. His wrap; he lost because of all of the stuff Obama promised to give away.

Obama, Romney argued, had been “very generous” to blacks, Hispanics and young voters. He cited as motivating factors to young voters the administration’s plan for partial forgiveness of college loan interest and the extension of health coverage for students on their parents’ insurance plans well into their 20s. Free contraception coverage under Obama’s healthcare plan, he added, gave an extra incentive to college-age women to back the president.

My god, he's still 'playing doctor' with the 'free' contraception crappola. Freebies -- whee! Obamagoodies undermined his Truly Excellent Campaign and his offer to get our country back for us. Well. Some of us anyway.

What a dreadful graceless person.

Sir C, hope you had a restful day after.

[paula]

SC--thanks for taking down one of my two comments, but please take down the one posted 1:01.
Since this morning, I've found at least one other blogger who, working from the same data, came up with similar thoughts. Our posts predate those of Milbank, but I still don't want to press my luck. Please remove my post. thanks.

[Crissa]

Naw, he gets paid alot to come up with things other people have thought of. There's only so many thoughts in the world, after all. ^-^

[oddjob]

:)

[Sir Charles]

Paula,

All set. I think I inadvertently removed another comment.

[paula]

Thanks, SC. I agree, Crissa. Still... I don't have an army of WaPo attorneys behind me.

Getting a chuckle watching Romney bury himself with any supporters he might still have. The promise of gifts? You mean, like, reduced taxes? Gifts? You mean, like, 11 million new jobs? Gifts? Would "no new taxes" fall under that heading?

It wasn't the gift that was accepted or rejected,
Mitt. It was the giver.

[low-tech cyclist]

If work weren't driving me crazy today, I'd be posting - this is one of those 'headful of ideas that are driving me insane' sorts of days.

Just one quickie: Bobby Jindal wants the GOP to "stop being the stupid party" but thanks to him, Louisiana charter schools are taking tax dollars to teach kids that humans and dinosaurs coexisted. There are battles you can't win when you're losing a fight with yourself.

[oddjob]

GOP to Romney: Drop dead!

[kathy a.]

justice sotomayor, on careers.

[kathy a.]

i probably should have mentioned that sonya s. appears on sesame street, in that last link. which is about the coolest possible thing for a SCOTUS justice to do. imho. unless he/she agreed to participate in a flashmob on the gorgeous steps of scotus, which would make my life complete.

[jeanne marie]

I am just picturing Justice Sotomayor Gangnam style on the SCOTUS steps . . .

[nancy]

kathy and jeanne marie -- The Justice is also a member of the very large "Nancy Drew Changed My Life" Fan Club. At ten. Me too. Who needed Princess plans? Girl sleuth, extraordinaire -- she was the model moderne. (I still want that blue 'roadster' at some point.) :-)

Ruth Marcus once wrote a column lamenting that her daughters hadn't taken to the books. She realized later that the fictional Nancy -- independent, smart, clever, resourceful, loyal, stylish -- had now become normal for them. But of course.

Poor GOPers. They seemed to have missed that girls/women/granddaughters have had *Nancy Drew* accompanying them since the '30's. Nancy's politics today would have been easy to extrapolate.

oddjob -- Am so loving the GOP to Romney, Drop Dead scripts. Find the stage door guy and use it. Most entertaining. Think we've heard the last of Rand and Galt?

Long way from Mr.Gallup president, I know

[oddjob]

Hostess is ceasing operations.

No more Twinkies or Wonder Bread.

[oddjob]

Think we've heard the last of Rand and Galt?

It would be nice, but unfortunately I doubt it.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Popping in and out these days, in the middle opf a personal hassle invoving real estate and Em's crazy family -- including our crazy part of it -- that is totally indescribable and keeps changing. Fill you in at some time, but just in passing, one of the many discoveries in the cheap section of the Kindle Store is the 'complete' (Kindle 'complete collections' usually aren't) Penny Parker series of novels that were rivals to Nancy Drew. I bought it -- 15 books for $.99 total -- and will pass on comments if I get a chance, but if any of you have kindles -- or the free kindle app for PCs -- and who grew up with Nancy Drew might take a glance and let me know how you think they compare. (Note on 'completeness,; wierdly it is the first two books -- referenced in the opening episode of the series in the collection -- that are missing, THE VANISHING HOUSEBOAT and TALE OF THE WITCH DOLL -- but they are available for free (just look for Penny Parker and not the author name.)

If any of you remember 'books from grandma's closet' or other books that were old even when you read them as a youth, things like the Zane Gray vaseball books, the MOTOR BOYS series, the OZ books -- and people who only know THE WIZARD don't realize what further delights await in the later books -- or more adult fare like the TUTT AND MISTER TUTT series of wonderful legal short stories or the Tish series by Mary Roberts Rinehart -- will find part or all of these series in the Kindle store for free for single books, $1 or $2 for collections. (I can't believe how opposed I was to the Kindle -- 'dead tree stuff for me' -- until I discovered how perfect a vehicle it was for keeping public domain books available at a reasonable price or even for nothing. They are a little too dependent on Project Gutenberg as a source, but it's nice to have the books in a pleasant, attractive reading format.

[kathy a.]

i heart justice sotomayor. nancy -- what a great point about the nancy drew books, and her adventurousness, curiosity, and smarts now being "normal." i was a juvenile book addict, but there just were not a lot of interesting characters who were girls, back in the day.

prup -- interesting kindle news. i may need to break down and start using kindle -- although i confess a deep devotion to dead trees, and can't imagine replacing my bedtime paperbacks (for those sleepless hours) with machinery.

we might even get those members of my book club who never read the book to read, if it is free and online. (this has got to be the strangest book club. one couple never ever reads the book; the guy always comes up with some PBS show he thinks is related to the topic, and off he goes....)

i'm not going to miss twinkies or wonder bread -- but they are such icons that it seems likely another company will buy the brand. the whole situation is kind of crappy -- the company was floundering, but it is blaming its workers for wanting decent compensation. people are going to keep buying baked goods; perhaps they could consider updating the product line?

[beckya57]

All--in re kathy's comment--if you like reading at night and want a Kindle, get the regular kind, not the Fire. There's some research indicating that LED-type screens (computers, TV, video games etc.) activate the brain and make going to sleep harder. The regular Kindle doesn't do that. I'm constantly yammering at the parents of my patients that don't sleep well to ban the video games after 7 pm and take the TV out of the kid's bedroom.

I too was a major Nancy Drew addict as a kid. I also voraciously read biographies of accomplished women: Clara Barton, Florence Nightingale, Margaret Bourke-White, Emelia Earhart, Elizabeth I, etc.

A Supreme Court justice on Sesame Street? How cool is that?

The entertaining GOP meltdown continues to give me great pleasure, along with watching them squirm over the upcoming tax debate. This time of course Obama holds all the cards. They were incredibly stupid not to have taken the "grand bargain" he offered last time (and Obama's offering it was one of his rare stupid moments). I guess they just couldn't conceive a universe in which Obama might win re-election. Ha ha, serves them right.

[beckya57]

A few more thoughts:

Check out Jon Chait on the GOP's central dilemma: that most people in the country don't want endless tax cuts for the rich.

Re the Gallup and various pundit tantrums: I'm fascinated by the resemblance to the resistance from the old guard baseball scouts to sabermetrics. Watch "Moneyball" if you want a quick introduction to this. And of course Nate Silver is a transitional figure here, as he got his start in sabermetrics. The old boys' various analysis clubs (in a variety of contexts) are enraged that the new statistical analysis methods, which are propagated by young whippersnappers who haven't "paid their dues" by the rules of the old system, are showing the public how vacuous and erroneous all their analysis actually is. More ha ha ha.

[Sir Charles]

becky,

I think Moneyball is a really apt analogy.

I think the GOP is in a really difficult position (of its own making)-- it's tribalist resentments are a huge turnoff to vast numbers of voters, but are also the glue that holds their little white boy coalition together. Get rid of the resentment and what is Billy Bob voting for? Lower taxes for Mitt? I don't see the necessary psychological payoff. You live by the rube you die by the rube.

[oddjob]

Get rid of the resentment and what is Billy Bob voting for? Lower taxes for Mitt?

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!!

[kathy a.]

i think this was an election where resentment was pushed to the max -- and, it didn't work so well. billy bob might want his cousin to get a living wage, or his kid to be able to get some skills at night school. and yadda.

[nancy]

Ain't just Billy Bob. I found Amanda's analysis to be excellent and her link to Rick Perlstein's essay made my week. The long con indeed.

Her bonus link: Dr. Strangelove and those "precious bodily fluids." Hey, goofy serious threats-to-god-and-country go way back in our comedy machine.

Bon weekend all.

[Sir Charles]

Nancy,

Great links. I think I may post them both. It's pretty scary stuff as well.

Perlstein has really immersed himself in the world of the right from its Goldwater-spawned days and really understands the continuity that characterizes the movement over the last fifty years.

The devotion to non-reality in the conservative movement is really a defining characteristic of it.

I think that the phenomenon that Perlstein points out is also a reason that I think it is going to be very difficult for Republicans to make the kind of changes being discussed to confront changing demographics.

[big bad wolf]

i am not sold on the moneyball analysis. what nate does is fairly limited. it tells us through his analysis what the polls are really showing about voter inclinations regarding a binary choice. it doesn't tell us anything much else. it doesn't tell us why, it does (yet) tell us much about why, and it doesn't tell us much about what affected the voters. moneyball could tell you which sort of player your team needed in the context of what other players you had, who fit better, what they brought to the game, and what pitch to expect in what situation. nate doesn't yet tell us how to campaign, how people are thinking, or what matters got them interested and out to vote.

[kathy a.]

don't those extra clues depend on what the polls are asking, exactly, and who is being asked? because polls are worded and focused differently (and because the people being polled may not be a fair cross-section), aggregation only works in broad strokes. still, it is miles ahead of taking just one poll -- certainly much better than random pundit predictions.

i can't speak well to moneyball; sports is not my thing. but it sounds like there are some extra layers, and in the context of a particular team's strengths and weaknesses (and maybe personalities?); so, the statistics are one part of that assessment, but not the only part. also, aren't there a small number of decisionmakers about team hiring?

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Whatever Nate Silver does today -- and yes, he seems to do it very well -- it has no relation to sabremetrics.

Sabremetrics analyzes the quantifiable contributions of twenty-five or more individuals to the total summable concrete results of 162 discrete events (games) involving either 75 or 300 decision points -- depending on whether you are choosing plays or pitches. Every event sabremetrics covers is unambiguous -- a player is either safe or out, a run scores or doesn't score, a team wins or loses or has a rare tie -- and is, once having occurred, unchangeable. No one can argue that David Wright was really safe on the ball he hit in the 5th inning of the game of June 18th, even if the replay shows the umpire blew the call and he should have been safe. Nor can the partisans of each team dispute which team really won the game.

Sabremetrics analyzes a complete 'universe' of facts, it does not, in any way, use 'sampling and projection.'

Sabremetrics did not introduce statistics into a statistical wasteland -- the first box scores, in much the same format as today's, appeared over a decade before the first professional baseball team. Instead, sabremathematicians claimed that their new analyses proved that the older stats were either insufficient or misleading in showing the value of a particular player, type of player, or strategy to a team's success.

Does any single statement in that description apply to anything Nate is doing in political statistics, or, for that matter, any other political statistician.

True political sabremetrics would, if some form of quantifiability were possible, show what type of surrogates, what type of advisors, speechwriters, or fund raisers were best for a campaign to use, for example, but even then, they'd have to follow a larger universe, and break down the decision-making process into several sub-processes -- and then show the final decision was a result of the summing of these processes.

I'd argue that all of these are impossible, that the contributions are not qualtifiable, the decision-making is not an additive process, and that the 'observer effect' would make even the attempt to study a complete universe -- even as small a one as one town's electorate -- invalid because of the knowledge of the voters that they were being studied.

[Sir Charles]

Jim,

Nate, as I am sure you know, was one of the big innovators in the post-Bill James world of sabremetrics.

I think that Nate is bringing a similar approach to the analysis of polls -- not of politicians.

[beckya57]

My Moneyball comment wasn't about Silver's current work being similar to his sabermetrics work. I was noticing the similarities in the old guard's enraged reaction in both cases. The baseball scouts and GMs sound a lot like Gallup and David Brooks, George Will, et al. They just can't stand having some young guy show them up for the conceited fools they really are.

[nancy]

Nate Silver, young guy. Emperors, no clothes. Emperors peeved. How dare he demonstrate such competency?

And then there were the hipster nerds at work leading the Obama tech team. Jim Messina: "Welcome to the team. Don't fuck it up." Mitt Romney would have been reaching for the old scissors.

I do have to wonder if Harper Reed is going to like what he's done to his right earlobe at about age sixty. :-|