Friday Night Open Thread

"Dreaming" - Blondie

An old favorite -- with a powerhouse performance by the awesome Dr. Clem Burke on drums. 

More apologies for my utter lack of productivity on the blog this week.  Last night and the night before I sat down with the lap top after walking Stanley, armed with all good and productive intentions, and both nights fell asleep sitting up in classic old man style.  It's just been that kind of week. (Hang in there with me -- I will produce more once I get past a couple of things.)

- I was amused and amazed by this story about the Romney campaign's internal polling.  How could this people be this inept?  If I were a Republican I would find this story chilling.  The inability to objectively obsess one's situation strikes me as the worst sin a campaign can commit.  Bubble living is a dangerous thing to do. 

- Meanwhile, back in the reality based world, the scope of Obama's victory continues to take shape.  His lead has now expanded to 4,573,000 votes, with his share of the popular vote edging up to 50.92% while Romney's has slipped to 47.35%.  (Since 1960 there have been five elections closer than this one.)

Update:  Some months ago I remarked on the fact that although the presidential election was polling in fairly close fashion on a national basis, there were very few states that appeared to be competitive at all.  Now that the results are nearly final, this has proven true well beyond what I had imagined.  Despite all of the talk of eight to twelve "swing states," the reality is that only four states in the country had margins closer than 5%.  Virginia, which thus far Obama leads by 3.88% (which is not that close), Ohio, where he leads by 2.96%, Florida, the closest state in the election, which Obama leads by .88%, and North Carolina, which Romney won by 2.04%.  Nowhere else was close, leaving all the talk of not knowing the results until Wednesday or the possible nightmare of multiple recounts seeming particularly silly.  Beyond these four states, the closest of the Obama states was Colorado, which he leads by 5.37%.  The margins in the next few closest states won by Obama were Pennsylvania by 5.4%, New Hampshire by 5.58%, Iowa by 5.81%, and Nevada by 6.68%.  The next closest of the Red States other than North Carolina was Georgia which Romney took by 7.82%.  In other words, the country is profoundly politically divided with the Democrats, in presidential races, seeming to have locked in a pretty solid 270 - 300 electoral votes, with a ceiling of about 350.  (Assuming that Obama's strong performances in Indiana and Missouri in 2008 were one off events -- which seems more likely than not to be the case.)  The Republicans are very solidly ensconced in their electoral strongholds, but these seem to top out at about 200 electoral votes -- even if they can swing Florida and Ohio, they still fall short in the electoral college.  The red states were so red in 2012 that Obama was held to below 42% of the vote in 16 of the 24 states that Romney took, and he only cracked 45% in the aforementioned North Carolina and Georgia.  Demographic change may alter this landscape, but with margins like these, I suspect that it will be at least a decade before this really manifests itself.  On the flip side, Romney was held under 42% in thirteen states, plus the District of Columbia, under 45% in another four states, and under 47% in another six.  The states in which Romney got less than 45% of the vote have 227 electoral votes and the states in which he had less 47% of the vote have 272 electoral votes.  In such an electoral landscape, the Democrats can afford to concede Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and still win the presidency.  This would worry me profoundly were I a Republican.  Fortunately, for so many reasons, I am not.  

- I believe that predictions that chastened Republicans will capitulate on higher taxes are erroneous.  I think that they will be unwilling to compromise through the end of the year.  Once taxes have increased across the board, they may be willing to move, but I don't know that I would bet on that either.  My sense is that they will make the Dems own the tax increases and hope that the economy slips into recession once again. 

What else is going on out there?

-

Comments

[low-tech cyclist]

I think it'll be a hard sell for the GOP to make the Dems own the automatic expiration of the Bush tax cuts, especially when the Dems immediately submit legislation that would reinstate the tax cuts for all income under $250K.

One thing I devoutly wish the Dems would push for as part of the 'grand bargain' is a financial transactions tax. It would disproportionately affect rich people, especially those making a living in the finance sector. And it would reduce the ability of the Wall Street types to make a bodacious living by pushing other people's money around, since the tax would mean that the more you churned someone's money, the more you'd have to beat the market by in order to come out ahead.

And this isn't so much about wanting to see those guys get their comeuppance as about simply reducing their clout in our society. I don't mind their being rich; what I mind is the outsized voice they have in our politics. But until political power is considerably more divorced from economic power than it's been in my lifetime, the only way to reduce their outsized influence is to reduce the flow of money into their bank accounts.

[JMG]

I agree with your assessment of the Republicans. I also believe they will shut the government down as early as they can in 2013. They really believe America deserves to be smote (I love that word) hip and thigh for voting for the Kenyan usurper again -- those that believe that actually happened.
This is not likely to work, but they don't care. Having failed to seize total control of the government, they'd just as soon wreck it.

[Sir Charles]

JMG,

I was actually going to use the term "wreckers" to describe them -- I believe Thomas Frank has characterized the Republicans in that way.

I think that it is quite likely that GOP brinkmanship will continue. I just don't think compromise is in them -- especially in the House. I think they are already focusing on 2014 and thinking they can win the mid-terms and paralyze the Administration in the meantime.

I am not hopeful that an era of reasonableness will descend upon us. On the plus side, if taxes do increase across the board and the economy nonetheless continues to recover, it will powerfully undermine the GOP's economic narrative.

[JMG]

I just had another thought. It is also possible that since December 31, 2012 is a completely arbitrary deadline, sometime before Christmas both sides might agree to pick a new deadline -- saying it reflects the progress they're making.
Ideologues or not, these people ARE Congressmen and women. And what could be more ideal for any Congressperson than doing something cowardly and weaselly that the whole nation would applaud. There is nothing Americans hate more than having to think about politics between Thanksgiving and January 2 of the next year.

[oddjob]

If one accepts that a person's political affiliation is largely set by the time he or she is 25, if Obama's second term runs relatively well then we will be at the end of a 24 year run where young people have only known Democratic presidents to be appealing. The last time that happened was between 1929 and 1952.

[oddjob]

Nicely stinging anti-press as usual rant by Michael Grunwald.

Hat tip, The Plum Line.

[oddjob]

West Point chapel hosts first same-sex wedding

:)

[Crissa]

I think we just got a quarter of our annual rain this weekend.

[kathy a.]

oddjob, the west point news is so sweet and grand. the walls have tumbled. there really is no turning back about equality.

i'm thinking the same will turn out true about GOP fiscal cliff posturing. let their bad-ass selves cut funds and raise taxes for regular people, in the name of protecting the few, the exceedingly wealthy, the cowardly and condemning.

[kathy a.]

crissa -- i forget where you are. we are in the SF bay area, and lotta rain. more coming.

[Crissa]

Yeah. Looks like it finally stopped raining for a few hours in the Santa Cruz mountains. It's nothing like when I was a kid up the coast in Oregon and Washington - I think the lowest rainfall/year was 100" that I lived at.

But there's just something about how wet it decides to be here. It's crazy. I don't recall getting 3" in a night in deep fog. And there's another one or two inches left this weekend according to the weather. That's just alot of rain to get all at once.

I'm pretty proud of my stairs; I'm building porous stone steps. I poured out two buckets of water onto them today during the rain and the water didn't flow more than a step before disappearing... And the spread of my drains means nearly no water comes out the drain at the bottom. Designed to absorb, spread, ad dry quickly and provide places for plants to hide from the sun. The latter has yet to be tested.

[kathy a.]

those steps sound wonderful!

we've gotten about 4" this storm (and this is the third storm this week). we're at the bottom of a hill, so water comes draining through our yard. the patio looked like a river this morning; all the downspouts were gushing like firehoses, and there was also a lovely waterfall over one edge of the roof.

no, we don't get rain like OR and WA. but seeing how we can go 6 months with no rain to speak of, this much in a short time is messy.

[Joe S]

Sir C, I don't think Indiana or Missouri were "one-offs." Also, the Democrats should put extensive resources into putting Georgia, Montana, Arizona, and South Carolina in play. All of these states (including Indiana and except for Missouri) have growing non-white voter bases which the Democrats can organize. Indiana has a large and growing Latino population in the Northwest quadrant of the State. Georgia will be 45% nonwhite by 2016. Moreover, Montana is changing rapidly with a lot of West Coast transplants moving to cities like Billings and Bozeman-- and population declining in the conservative Eastern part of the state. Transplants can make a huge difference in a small population state like Montana.

Finally, someone like Hillary Clinton could probably win in West Virginia and Arkansas and will do better with the White working class than Obama in 2012. Obama did historically badly among the White working class-- because the economy is really bad and because he's black. A better economy coupled with changing demographics could put all these states in play by 2016.

[low-tech cyclist]

Joe - with all due respect, I think it's going to take more than a Hillary run to win back Arkansas and West Virginia.

They went from states that went Dem by ~15% in 1996 to states that went GOP by ~25% in 2012, a swing of 40 points. That's huge. And 2/3 of that shift happened between 1996 and 2004, so whatever the reasons for the swing, it wasn't mostly about the combination of Obama's skin color and the crappy economy during the Obama years.

A similar thing happened with Kentucky and Tennessee in between over that same period, only they went much more narrowly Dem in 1996, and the overall shift was about 25 points rather than 40.

Whatever's going on with these states, it'll take more than Hillary to undo it.

[kathy a.]

yay, comments were off and now they are back!

ltc -- would make sense to figure out what is going on in those states, no?

[low-tech cyclist]

oddjob - that's a great piece by Grunwald. He slips a little at the end, though, saying "It would seem tendentious to point out Republican hypocrisy on deficits and Medicare and stimulus every time it comes up, because these days it comes up almost every time a Republican leader opens his mouth. But we’re not supposed to be stenographers."

The problem that the press should be pointing out isn't that the GOP is being hypocritical in turning around and being for Medicare cuts that they were just against and numerous similar reversals, it's that they don't have meaningful positions of their own on any of these issues. Instead, they're simply singing, "Whatever it is, I'm against it" about any position Obama takes.

It was funny when Groucho sang it in Horsefeathers; not so funny when it's one of our two major political parties, which is in a position to exercise a veto over pretty much any legislation of any sort.

[Joe S]

LTC, I reviewed the data for the past three elections, and I have to say you're probably right. West Virginia and Arkansas have been consistently moving right, and Hillary probably couldn't take either state anymore.

[Sir Charles]

Crissa,

I am impressed. I have so little talent in this regard -- amusingly enough given who I represent -- that I am always admiring of do-it your selfers who can actually handle tasks this sophisticated.

Joe,

I see you've already come around to l-t c's thinking on this front. The reason I think that the close result in Missouri is likely to be a one off is that it seems to be following a phenomenon that is sweeping across the various Scots-Irish dominated hill country -- from West Virginia to Kentucky to Tennessee to Arkansas and parts of Missouri and Louisiana all the way to Oklahoma. I don't think this is just a reaction to Obama. It is possible that Hillary will fare better there if she runs, but I think there has been a pretty profound cultural/political shift that has led rural voters away from the Democratic Party in such a way that they are unlikely to come back any time soon.

I don't know about Indiana. It's always been more conservative than either Ohio or Illinois and although it is a little different than the other places I mentioned, it strikes me as a tough place for us. If the economy makes a big come back and Hillary is the nominee it will be interesting to see if it can be put in play again.

I tend to think places like Georgia and Arizona are likely to be more fruitful.

[Joe S]

Sir C, the thing about Missouri is that it's not all Scotts-Irish. St. Louis and Kansas City are a lot more like Indianapolis than Little Rock or Wheeling. There are deep red sections of Missouri, but there are also big metro areas as well. Similarly, some the growing parts of Indiana are becoming part of the Chicago metro area (You see Bears fans as opposed to Colts fans).

[Sir Charles]

Joe,

It just doesn't seem like the metro areas in either Missouri or Indiana can quite carry the state in the way that Chicago can or the combination of Cleveland and other cities can in Ohio. My sense of Missouri is that it is moving in the direction of its neighbors away from the Democratic Party.

Not sure about Indiana.

[low-tech cyclist]

I see the GOP is working on a "Doomsday Plan" with respect to the fiscal 'cliff' and the debt ceiling.

Doesn't that just say it all? Obama has presented a plan to address a bunch of America's problems, and the GOP has a Doomsday Plan.

The operating ethos of the GOP: 'if we can't play with that toy, then we'll break it.' With 'that toy' being the U.S.A.

[nancy]

OK guys. No analysis from me, but here's the map -- It's not just Scots-Irish or American Pat Robertson-style religious fundamentalism that is common across the hill country: the denominator is, ta da, smoking . Anecdotally, I can reassure that my extended KY/OH family, with some transplants to W VA, smoke and don't enjoy being turned by nanny Dems into dumb pariahs who aren't supposed to employ the simple decompressive pleasure of lighting up, at the end of a long shift as machinists, waitresses, truck drivers, and hard-working, over-extended two minimum-wage job caring parents et al. [Go outside, 20 feet from door. Please. Uff ]. Working class proud though. In traditional deep tobacco country. No, not good for health, but then the coal mines were sure something positive overall, eh?

These folks are still somewhat pissed at perceived 'liberal', class misunderstanding of their rough lives outlines. Yeah, tobacco is their vice. I'm sure they'd be happy to have the more expensive vices of the flipping fortunate critiqued in the same way.

None of these people I know are rabid racists or silly fundies, btw. They just seem tired tired of being belittled. fwiw.

lt-c, Doomsday plan. Very cute.

[Sir Charles]

nancy,

I think that the smoking map is pretty telling in terms of the fact that politics has become a culture war writ large. Identity -- which may be fashioned via our vices, firearms, or vehicles -- seems to supersede actual policy in shaping voting decisions.

I know lots of working stiffs who smoke -- because they are union members, they still vote Democratic. But I suspect that they are a minority.

I do think liberals should be sensitive to how their public health concerns can sound to these voters -- but I am not sure that it would make a difference.

[nancy]

Open thread. The Innocence Project has produced a series which starts airing this evening about the wrongfully convicted, "Vindicated". There also is an interview December 9 on 60 Minutes. I wish more people would tune in to learn about the Project's work, and stay away from the dubious and unkind America's prisons faux documentaries that MSNBC has created to fill its down times. [If their intention is to shine a light on criminal justice, it's failing, imho.]