Okay, up and running. Time to figure out what is going on.
The early exit polls sounded good to me. I heard on npr that the electorate is projected to be only 74% white, that young voters constitute 18% of the electorate and that hispanics make up 10% of voters. This strikes me as a very promising make up.
And now I think I am going to walk Stanley to be back in time for the 8:00 poll closings. See you in a few.
Okay, I'm back. Florida looks really close, not surprisingly. I am going to take a quick spin around the web and see if anyone has any interesting news. kos reports that Obama is leading in Hillsborough County (Tampa) by a margin of 52-47, which is just where he needs to be.
Wow, they are already calling it for Chris Murphy in the senate race for Connecticut. This one was uncomfortably close for a while. We also have the Bill Nelson seat already in hand with an extraordinarily easy win. Neither are big surprises, but they are nice wins.
- Virginia - I am trying to delve into the county by county results in Virginia a bit. I continue to think that Prince William and Loudon counties -- the two exurban DC counties -- are a good bellwether for the state as a whole. So far Loudon in literally one vote apart with 33,000 counted. Prince William is in the very early stages of its vote count, so I can't really make a judgment yet. There are very few votes in from the large jurisdictions contiguous to DC. They tend to come in late, much to the consternation of we Dems.
- Florida - It sounds like Obama is doing pretty well so far in Florida. kos reports that Obama is leading in Hillsborough County (Tampa) by 52-47, which is just where he needs to be.
- Flyover country -- Wolf Blitzer excitedly exclaims that Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Lousiana, and South Dakota went to Romney. Gee that's news.
- Michigan -- What do you know, "tossup" state Michigan was just announced by CNN, the moment that the polls closed. Once again, the press and the GOP conspired to make this seem in doubt when it simply never was.
- The polls -- so far the polls seem like they were more or less right on. So much for skewing.
- Prup: Hate to say it, but Romney is already at 152 electoral votes.
- North Carolina - Obama is running dead even. I don't know where the vote is coming, but this is pretty encouraging.
- Ohio -- the "whole shooting match" state as it should be called. Obama seems to have a pretty goo lead thus far. He appears to have a huge lead in Cuyahoga County. All signs seem very favorable.
- Massachusetts - Warren is up 52 to 48 on Brown, while Obama is beating Romney 59-39. That seems like she is on target.
- Wisconsin bitchez - So gee, I guess Wisconsin and Michigan were not toss up states. Great job Sean Trende (Real Clear Politics), who kept this as a toss up even today. It is pretty clear that the Republicans have been engaging in bullshit spin (or self-delusion) on this and Michigan. Next illusion to disappear -- Pennsylvania.
- And Elizabeth Warren bitchez!!!!! Yeah!!! So far with Angus King winning in Maine, we are up two seats thus far in the Senate.
- And let's make it three -- Conservadem Joe Donnelly has defeated Rapepublican Richard Mourdock. We are up three seats in the Senate now.
- And Sherrod Brown is reelected. Not a surprise, but great news about a great guy. And a good sign for Obama I think.
- Pennsylvania - I missed the call for Pennsylvania for Obama. So at what point do all of the pundits who bought the Romney bullshit start feeling silly. Clearly, there was no contest in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Nate must be feeling mighty good thus far.
- Granite State baby!!! -- It's looking awfully good for the good guys. I am almost ready to head over to NRO and listen to the lamentations of our enemies, and bask in their sweet tears, while they rend their garments. Fuck yeah!
- And speaking of the audacity of bullshit, check out this item from Taegan Goddard on what the Romney campaigns internals actually showed in Ohio yesterday.
- Virginia - I have perused the official county by county statistics in Virginia and am pretty confident that Obama is going to win. There is still 60% of Fairfax County to count and that alone should be enough for Obama to win. It also appears that no votes from Norfolk have been counted, which will also go heavily for Obama. Obama leads in the bellwether of Loudon County and is running neck and neck in Prince William. All very good signs. Tim Kaine seems to be running slightly better than Obama, which is more good news.
- And more good news. Claire McCaskill!! Bad night for the Rapepublicans.
- Atrios can breath easy. Kerrey has lost to Deb Fisher. The Republicans grab one back.
- Minnesota -- Another shocker - Obama becomes the tenth straight Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state. But it is a swing state. Really. Joe Scarborough tells me.
- North Carolina - CNN just called it for Mitt. Looks like Obama ran a nice race, but as I suspected he would, came up just a bit short. No worries though. Everything else looks on target. Time to check in on Virginia again.
- Virginia - Romney's edge is down to 8,000 votes. He's a dead man walking.
- And now Iowa!!!!
Imagine if we had any enthusiasm going for us.
***** And there it is -- NBC calls it for Obama. Victory. Sweet, sweet, victory.
- It is time to dissolve the people and elect a new one.
- I wonder what Peggy Noonan is feeling now? Besides the lulling oblivion of some gin and olives. Make mine dirty barkeep!
- It looks like Nate Silver knows a whole lot more than Frank Newport of Gallup and Scott Rasmussen. I can't wait to see the demographics, but it seems to me that this was like 2008 plus.
- Obama is now up 30,000 in Virginia and I see no way for Romney to come back given the jurisdictions that are remaining.
- And Shelly Berkely is running significantly ahead in Nevada. I don't know if it's enough to win, but this is my upset pick of the night.
- Boy almost all of the news looks good -- Baldwin is ahead, Heitkamp has a narrow lead, Tester is ahead. This night is shaping up about as well as we could have ever have expected.
- Marriage Equality -- So far the good guys are up narrowly in all four states. This could be epic. In Maryland it is ahead 52-48 with 86% of the vote in. There is a four point margin in both Maine and Washington with about half of the vote counted and a two point margin in Minnesota with about half of those votes counted.
- Very pleased to see that Loudon County has come down 52-47 for Obama and Prince William has gone for Obama 55-44, which is a really nice win. I like to win and I like being right.
- I cannot believe that Romney is not conceding. It doesn't matter if Ohio is up for grabs -- which it really isn't. He is going to lose Virginia, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada too. He has no coneivable path to victory. Get some class man.
- I am describing our winning coalition as suburban women and the men who cut their lawns.
- Obama must be pissed that Romney is keeping him from addressing the country until such a late hour. Romney is a douche to the end.
- Obama just took the lead in the popular vote. And that is with only about half of Washington and Oregon's vote in and less than 30% of California's. I feel pretty good about my 51-48 prediction.
- There is so much to this election we haven't discussed -- the marijuana initiatives, the return of Alan Grayson to the House, and an incredibly tight race to send Allen West packing among other things.
- So Shelly Berkley has slipped behind by 2,000 votes with 85% counted, but Heidi Heitkamp is up by 5,000 with 89% of the vote in. These can be meaningful amounts in jurisdictions as small as Nevada and North Dakota. Keep your fingers crossed.
- Romney's concession was actually quite gracious.
- And the big winner tonight thus far seems to be the poll aggregators. It seems to me that there results are amazingly on track thus far.
- I just took a glance at CNN's exit polls -- very interesting stuff. Once again, it seems to reinforce the notion that demography is destiny. The turnout by African Americans was impressive once again -- as I expected. They constituted 13% of the electorate, which I believe means they were slightly overrepresented relative to their share of the population. No enthusiasm gap at all evident there. Obama won the African-American vote by a staggering 93-7. And then Hispanics increased their presence to 10% of the electorate and they went for Obama by 71 to 27. Asians -- who are actually the fastest growing demographic in America -- constituted 3% of the electorate and went for Obama by a margin of 74 - 24. By the way, Americans under 30 constituted 19% of the electorate versus 16% of the electorate over the age of 65. In other words, it was the 2008 electorate again -- plus as I said earlier. Obama took 60% of the vote among the under 30 voters. Again, no enthusiasm gap at all. We just need to try and get all of these groups to vote every two years instead of every four. Oh, white men gave Obama just 35% of the vote. A sad commentary on them, not the President.
- Nice speech by Obama. Too bad it is going on at 1:45 EST.
Good night all. It's 2:45 AM and I need to drive to Richmond tomorrow and back. But I will feel fondly toward old Virginny on my way. I can't make it long enough to get the definitive word on Heitberg, Berkley, and Tester. Or Michelle Bachmann, who is hanging on by her fingernails. Maybe more good news awaits in the morning.
As always, it's been a pleasure.