A Few More Facts About the Election

I am still watching for the final voting tallies to be reached.  One of the annoying things about the way the vote comes in is that is generally leaves the impression on election night that the Republican presidential candidate has fared better in the popular vote than he in fact has due to the late counting of votes in California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii, all of which are Democratic bastions.

So as of today, I see that Obama's margin is up to 4.1 million votes.  (Right now the vote is at 51% to 48% -- or more precisely 50.77% to 47.54% -- if Romney slips just a bit more to below 47.5% he will officially have won the support of 47%, which would be sweet indeed.)  And Obama has now topped 64 million votes -- he is still down 5 million votes from 2008, but it is a far cry from the claims one heard on election day of Obama being down by 9 - 10 million votes.  I am not sure how many votes there are left to count, but it seems likely that Obama will continue to add to his margin.  As I have noted previously, it is pretty clear that Obama's overall vote count has been substantially hurt by Hurricane Sandy.  If you look at the vote totals for New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut (which were the sixth, eleventh, and twelfth most pro-Obama states in the country) they were down by 19%, 12%, and 5% respectively.  (See column J in the attached link.)  It looks to me like this accounts for about 1 million likely Obama voters who were not able to get to the polls.

I was curious to see how Obama's white vote held up this time around.  There were places in 2008 where he performed improbably well like Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota the last time around.  Alas, this time his performance in those states eroded a great deal.  (I don't think this was shocking given the performance of the economy over the last four years -- voters who went against the grain in 2008 probably did not see enough upside to keep them moving in Obama's direction -- throw in the incredible vilification to which Obama was subjected during this time and the general erosion in his rural support and the outcome does not seem at all surprising.  I think 2016 will give the Dems another chance in at least a few of these places.)

In 2008, Obama prevailed among white voters in 18 states plus the District of Columbia.    Sadly, I can't give quite the same analysis as I did in 2008 due to the elimination of exit polling in several states.  But it appears to me that Obama won the white vote in 12 states plus DC this time around.  He took 91% of the overall vote in DC, 70% in Hawaii, 63% in Rhode Island, and 59% in Delaware -- none of these states were exit polled, but it is safe to say that he won the white vote in three of them -- Delaware, which had 20% minority voters in 2008 may not have quite made it.

In the states that were exit polled, Obama prevailed among white voters in the following -- these states also had pretty noteworthy gender gaps among its white voters:

                        White Vote for Obama                 White Women v. White Men        Gap

Vermont:                 66%                                        72 - 59%                                13%

Massachusetts:       57%                                        63 - 50                                   13%

Maine:                    57%                                        64 - 49                                    15%

Oregon:                  54%                                        57 - 51                                      6%

Washington:           53%                                        55 - 50                                      5%

Connecticut:           51%                                        57 - 44                                    13%

New Hampshire:      51%                                        56 - 46                                    10%

Iowa:                      51%                                        58 - 42                                    16%

New York:               49%                                        55 - 43                                    12%

I continue to find the scope of the gender gap in places like New York, New England, and Iowa (versus say Oregon and Washington) to be really interesting.  I don't have an explanation for it, but it strikes me as an interesting thesis topic.  

(And it's stuff like this that makes me really regret the lack of fifty state data.)

I am going to continue to comb through the data to see what else might be of interest. 

What do you all think?

- Sir Charles  (It says Stephen's name, but that's because I am once again found wanting technologically.  But I did make Ian disappear.)

Comments

[low-tech cyclist]

I think it's a lock that Mitt's share of the vote will drop below 47.5%, so that he can be Willard Mitt 47% Romney in perpetuity.

I love the way the GOP has absolutely savaged Romney, which leaves the guy with no friends anywhere, excepting maybe a few nominally centrist pundits. (As the Beatles pointed out nearly a half-century ago*, money can't buy you love.) And for what? For (a) losing, and (b) being just a bit too public about the GOP's view of Dem voters as 'takers.' Though that would have been OK with them if only Romney had won.

I've been too busy to look, but I haven't seen anything about the future of Obama's remarkable turnout operation. It absolutely HAS to be kept intact, at least the infrastructure and core staff so that it can easily be brought back to full steam in 2014. I think 2014 has the potential of being an unusually good off-year election for the Dems, between Obamacare's implementation and an improving economy, if the Dems don't give in to the austerians this winter. So we need to have the turnout operation in place that will put us over the top that year.

But in Virginia, it should be kept fully operational, period: Virginia has its gubernatorial election, and its state legislature elections, in 2013 rather than 2014. I don't know who the GOP is running to succeed Gov. Ultrasound (please, Lord, let it be Ken Cuccinelli - he can play the Akin/Mourdock role to perfection!), but it's time to run a statewide race against an increasingly backwards GOP in a state that's increasingly educated and urbanized. Winning the governorship and making some serious gains in the House of Delegates would be a great way to solidify Virginia's status as a swing state.

Also, it would shut up those pundits who talk up Virginia as a precursor of coming trends whenever a Republican wins the governorship.

*January 2014, besides being when Obamacare will be fully implemented, will also be the 50th anniversary of the Beatles' arrival in America. Boggles the mind, doesn't it?

[RayM]

ltc mentions ObamaCare. This article made my blood boil - these people just will not stop. What really astonishes me, though, is how they keep getting elected when they are quite clearly screwing their constituents.

[low-tech cyclist]

By the way, sorry I've been so scarce lately. I'm at the in-laws for Thanksgiving, so I've finally reached a moment of relative calm. But it was preceded by two days at Disney World bookended by two days of travel, naturally, and that in turn was preceded by one of the craziest weeke ever at work in order to get ready for being gone.

Needless to say, Disney was a hit with the kid; age 5 was, I think, the perfect age for an introduction to the Magic Kingdom. He was big enough to go on all the rides, strong enough to handle all the walking, and old enough to remember it all for years to come.

[oddjob]

Delaware, which had 20% minority voters in 2008 may not have quite made it.

Without exit polling it's very difficult to know about Delaware. Delaware is two radically different states in one. The northernmost county (New Castle) is firmly part of metro Philadelphia and contains Wilmington and New Castle, by far Delaware's most populous cities. When Delaware elects Democrats it's because of New Castle County's voters.

The southern two counties, Kent & Sussex, are the reason Delaware was regarded as a "border state" during the Civil War. They are rural, coastal plain (New Castle is piedmont), and the northernmost reach of Dixie. There are far fewer voters there but they're mostly white conservative Republicans.

[oddjob]

I continue to find the scope of the gender gap in places like New York, New England, and Iowa (versus say Oregon and Washington) to be really interesting

The gender gap in Massachusetts is most of the reason in an off-year a Republican like Scott Brown can get elected to the Senate, and also why three of the last four governors of Mass. were Republicans.

[oddjob]

I love the way the GOP has absolutely savaged Romney

Evangelical Christians are an army that eats their own. (That savaging also happened to Anita Bryant back around 1980 when she divorced her husband after having led a campaign to discriminate against gay people in Miami Dade County.)

[oddjob]

(And I'm sure that behavior has extended into the GOP base that is so heavily composed of Evangelical Christians.)

[oddjob]

...I haven't seen anything about the future of Obama's remarkable turnout operation. It absolutely HAS to be kept intact, at least the infrastructure and core staff so that it can easily be brought back to full steam in 2014.

ltc, you may find this link interesting reading:

"...People who are not informed about how the campaign came together do not understand the outsized importance of the out of state efforts by Obama volunteers into swing states....."

[low-tech cyclist]

oddjob - I'd read that and found it quite fascinating. Alas, it didn't answer the question of whether there would be a similar operation next year where a Marylander like me could volunteer to help out in Virginia, or whether we'd be back to the local, ad-hoc efforts of the past.

[Sir Charles]

l-t c,

Enjoy your trip.

I think one of the huge problems in Virginia is simple exhaustion -- having to turn around a year after the presidential election to mobilize people in a truly off year vote is a difficult thing for the Democratic constituency.

We certainly need to do it, but I can tell you that after 2008 the thought of strapping the gear on again and heading into Virginia was really unappealing. I think many felt the same way.

[nancy]

l-t c, Age five is the best for a Disney trip. :) Travel with a five year old -- keeps one young. Enjoy the time.

Happy Thanksgiving all.

And demonstrating that extreme weather events are going to get spread around the map, the Seattle area got record rainfall this week [that's saying a lot in the Emerald City], thus causing cancellation of the eight hour train trip which was planned to deliver my son home safely for the holiday. Mudslides over ten-miles of track. He drove, which given the distance (280 miles) and mountain pass, makes me nervous mommy. The return trip on Sunday calls for ice and Cascades snow. The '99 jeepster gets to show its stuff.

btw: Obama ground game. Son and his friends in Seattle were all being contacted, by cell, to make a few phone calls to Colorado to GOTV, day of. Impressive. Washington voters who vote by mail were of course available to make those calls.

[kathy a.]

LTC --how fun! i really loved going to disney(land)with the kids.

nancy, i feel your pain, as the parent of young adults. double-bleah on the predicted ice.

let's talk about next year's elections next week. i feel that things are in decent shape to keep moving forward, even in states of exhaustion like virginia.

crossing fingers that more war involvement continues to be averted.

and in the longer term -- that some of these buffoons begin realizing that women vote; and that a lot of us are pretty pissed about jerks and their legislative agendas at present; and that pissed-off women carried the day during this election, mostly.

[nancy]

and in the longer term -- that some of these buffoons begin realizing that women vote; and that a lot of us are pretty pissed about jerks and their legislative agendas at present; and that pissed-off women carried the day during this election, mostly.

Oh yeah. And Iowa. That gap. I'd sure love to be privy to something like knitting class chats in say, Cedar Rapids. Something very interesting looks to be at work there. Knitting classes -- where you find women communing with other women of all ages. Book clubs. Diners. Campus gyms. Daycares. Etc. Looks like some gender agreement re what the GOP had in store. Seriously disgusted women in flyover land. Good. We can build on that.

[beckya57]

I don't have a good explanation for the lack of a gender gap here in the beautiful Pacific NW. My vague impression is that we have a lot of liberal men here, but that's undoubtedly biased because I mostly run in Democratic circles. I'd be interested if anyone has an explanation.

Yes, we did get rained on a lot this week. nancy, I hope your son makes it ok.

Romney ending up with 47% of the vote is proof that God has a sense of humor.

Happy Thanksgiving all.

[Sir Charles]

nancy,

Hope your son gets home safe and sound. I am grateful to be traveling by rail myself.

becky,

Happy Thanksgiving to you too.

The interesting thing is that the difference between New England and the Northwest though is not the men are more liberal -- the white men in Massachusetts and Maine vote pretty much as the white men do in Oregon, and the white men in Vermont are more liberal still -- (DC and Hawaii have the most liberal white men of all, but I lack the exit polling data this go round to demonstrate it) -- but the white women in New England are considerably more liberal than their Pacific counterparts.

I don't really have an explanation.

[nancy]

Carload. Safe sound. As I hope yours are as well. Bless. Thanksgiving.

[Joe S]

Sir C and kathy a., my guess is that all of the West Coast states have deep red pockets-- deeper than anywhere in New England. Eastern Washington, Eastern Oregon, and parts of Eastern California are as conservative as Idaho and Utah. So, most likely, women voters are pretty conservative in those places. There is just no area like that in Maine, Massachusetts or Vermont. Both Maine's districts tend to vote Democratic and all of Massachusetts tends to vote Democratic.

[Joe S]

We have something similar here in Illinois where the central and Northwest part of the state South looks and votes like rural Indiana or Iowa (some Democrats, but mainly pretty conservative; and the Southern part of the state votes like rural Kentucky-- deep, deep red.

[kathy a.]

very true, joe.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Actually, Obama might have had an even greater percentage in NY without Sandy. The parts it hit, while more Republican than the city as a whole, were less so than upstate -- which is purple, not blue. And in the city, there was no reason to vote except patriotism and 'it's what you do.' Obama was certain to win the State, I don't think that 1 in a 1000 New Yorkers could have picked Gillibrand's opponent out of a line-up, and, in my district, Yvette Clarke is unbeatable. The only 'meaningful' vote I cast was for State Senator, voting for a bad, conservative, fanatically homophobic Democrat over a truly scary Russian Republican. (I could imagine this guy as Allen West's VP on a 3rd Party ticket in 2016 -- that bad.)

Unfortunately, while the Democrat won, he immediately announced he was caucusing with the Republicans. *sigh*

I voted. but if I'd even been slightly affected by Sandy, would I have made the effort? I hope so, but can't say for sure.

[oddjob]

the white women in New England are considerably more liberal than their Pacific counterparts

I wonder if the difference in the percentage of American Roman Catholics between the New England states and WA could explain that? (I'm speculating that as groups American Roman Catholic women are more likely to vote Dem. than American Protestant women.)

[oddjob]

(I could imagine this guy as Allen West's VP on a 3rd Party ticket in 2016 -- that bad.)

Gulp...

[oddjob]

Unfortunately, while the Democrat won, he immediately announced he was caucusing with the Republicans. *sigh*

??

Why doesn't he just formally switch parties and be done with it?

[oddjob]

Creep who slandered a war hero to gain a seat in the Senate abandons Grover Norquist.

[oddjob]

"Black Friday shopping took a nasty turn when a man pulled a gun during a line-cutting dispute at a Sears in San Antonio, Texas, Thursday night, the San Antonio Express-News reports...."

[oddjob]

Come January, more than two-thirds of the states will be under single-party control, raising the prospect that bold partisan agendas — on both ends of the political spectrum — will flourish over the next couple of years.

Though the Nov. 6 election maintained divided government in Washington, the picture is starkly different in capitals from California to Florida: one party will hold the governor’s office and majorities in both legislative chambers in at least 37 states, the largest number in 60 years and a significant jump from even two years ago....

Hat tip, TPM.

[oddjob]

"...I’m more proud of my [81 year-old, retired Marine, lifelong straight-ticket Republican] father than I have ever been and see him as a lesson to the Republican party. If they are losing someone like him, how many more must there be?"

[kathy a.]

oddjob -- the rise of single-party rule in GOP states does mean that more batshit legislation will be passed. we desperately needed obama, if for no other reason than because vacancies are likely to open on the supreme court -- which ultimately decides core constitutional questions. (of course, there are lots of other reasons we supported obama, too.)

meanwhile, states with dem control will hopefully be enacting more progressive legislation, lending weight to various issues nationally.

i personally prefer discussion and compromise to resolve issues. when that is impossible -- we may need to wait a bit for a big smackdown, but it is delicious when it comes. i foresee smackdowns.

we are seeing crumbling of the "no tax" idiocy. we are seeing beautiful movement on LGBT rights and marriage equality. the attacks on abortion and contraception have energized women, and people who care about women; PP is far from dead. and i heard that the restroom for women senators has experienced its first traffic jam, because 2 stalls is completely insufficient for the volume. rock on.

[kathy a.]

oddjob -- you are on a roll today! lovely link about the 81 year old marine's change of heart.

[oddjob]

Benetton beginning to use mannequins that watch you as you shop.

[oddjob]

the restroom for women senators has experienced its first traffic jam, because 2 stalls is completely insufficient for the volume

I can imagine two stalls probably doesn't work well when they need to handle 20 people.

:)

[kathy a.]

and here's the link on the traffic jam. :)

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

When I told Em about the traffic jam, she asked why they didn't just pass a law ... 'or do Republicans consider having a place to pee an entitlement?"

[nancy]

Em for the win!