The Close, But Not So Close Election (and Open Thread)

 

"I am Trying to Break Your Heart" - JC Brooks and the Uptown Sound

Fabulous cover of a great song -- like Otis Redding wrote it.  Let's undress just like cross-eyed strangers indeed.

- I promised I'd try to avoid too much election speculation, but sometimes I can't help myself.  I found it interesting reading Nate Silver's latest post and looking at the state by state electoral map he has at his site.  You have the paradox of an election in which national polls are quite tight, but state by state races yield little in the way of excitement.  In forty states, either Obama or Romney have a better than 80% chance of prevailing.  In two others, Pennsylvania and Missouri, Obama and Romney are thought by Silver to have a 79% chance of prevailing.  So basically the election comes down to eight states in which the odds are narrower: Obama is favored by Silver in six of them -- Nevada 72.8%, New Hampshire 65.9%, Virginia 64.9%, Iowa 64.6%, Colorado 64.2%, and Ohio 60.8% -- and Romney in two, North Carolina 73% and Florida 51.6%.  Now obviously there are months to go before the election and unforeseen events can occur.  Still, one gets the sense that a huge amount of the electoral map is absolutely locked in in a way that is unlikely to be changed.  We appear to have arrived at a 2004 style electoral situation, only this time the Democrats have the edge and the Republicans have to fill in an inside straight to win, i.e. sweep Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina in order to get to 272 electoral votes.  It is certainly possible, but it seems remarkably similar to the task that Kerry faced against Bush.  (I tend to take Silver's prognostications as being as good as they get -- he is one of those rare people who does not let his biases color his analysis and his methodology is rock solid.)

One of the interesting things will be to see how effectively all of the money raised by both sides can be deployed in a fairly small number of media markets - Las Vegas; Boston (for New Hampshire); DC (for northern Virginia) along with Richmond, Norfolk, and Roanoke; Des Moines; Denver; Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinatti, Toledo, and Dayton; Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham; and Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Miami.  I think there is likely to be a law of diminishing returns at some point -- really how many thirty second spots can people endure?  

Anyway, I continue to think it that as tight as the race might be that if Virginia gets called for Obama early on it will mean he has won. 

If that happens we can then obsess about the Senate, which continues to worry the hell out of me.

What do you all think?  And what else is grabbing your attention?

Post Script:  I wanted to address the tone of some of the comments in one of the most recent posts, which have caused some upset.  I know that this is a place where people have strong opinions and a forum in which they are free to express them.  But I would really urge people to use some care in attacking fellow members of the community here.  I value all of your contributions and don't relish the thought of refereeing disputes that become personal.  So please, if you disagree with someone, by all means say your piece, but let's try and give everyone the benefit of the doubt about being good-faith actors and think a little bit before hitting the old post button.  Thanks.

Comments

[oddjob]

New Hampshire 65.9%

And as a consequence of New Hampshire being in play for the first time I can recall since moving here in '95 I'm seeing presidential political ads on television. I know they aren't directed at most Massachusetts residents so I can only assume what I'm watching is also being viewed in New Hampshire homes.

[oddjob]

(And just for the record I myself had no problem with KN's opinions. I disagreed with them for the reasons I mentioned, but I certainly understood why he held them.)

[oddjob]

I have no idea what will happen with the Senate. In Massachusetts Warren still polls evenly with Brown, but I find that worrying. I think it likely that if Warren's polling even with Brown it actually means she's behind. If Obama's coattails are big enough that may offset the typical reluctance of likely Massachusetts voters to vote for a woman for a prominent office such as senator. On the other hand....

[oddjob]

Boston Globe editorial commending PA House Majority Leader Turzai for being so honest about the goal of the GOP's voter ID law.

[nancy]

Eh. Words on the page. We can fight, but I regard this house as a very good place to hear arguments without disgust. That's fine with me.

As Paula wrote, or something like it, "skip forward" if need be. We are definitely not all on the same page at the same time. All good I think.

I got to hear Wilco's "I Am Trying to Break Your Heart" at a concert in February when I was son's solo date. Christmas gift ticket. Ultimate compliment, gotta tell you. Son in public with old mom? T'was a wow.

[Lex]

Technical quibble re N.C. media markets: This is a long state geographically -- almost 700 miles tip to tip. And particularly for Democrats, who need to reach what passes here for urban centers to turn out their voters, you've got to buy in a lot of markets. In addition to Charlotte and the Triangle, you've also got to hit the Triad (Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point), Asheville (mountains) and stations in Wilmington, Greenville and/or New Bern to get the coast.

[Sir Charles]

oddjob,

Remember that Gore lost NH to Bush in 2000. Although we tend to focus all of our attention on Florida, NH actually would have put Gore over the top. Bush won by 7,000 votes. Nader drew 22,000, just to poke that stick one more time.

Kerry only won it by 9,000 votes in 2004, so it actually has been very much in play in recent times.

It looks likely to revert to form in the sense of being quite close possibly.

Lex,

I meant to mention Ashville and Greensboro, both of which are really small markets.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

First, let me say my absence yesterday -- and possibly a future absence -- did not come from any other cause but a problem with my video cord. I thought I was going to have to borrow the lap top and apologize while it was being repaired, but it fixed itself, at least temprarily. (Still need to take it in for the sound card, for this problem, , to replace the keyboard -- I probably spend 30 minutes a day just correcting mis-hits by the two fingers I use -- and to clean enough cat fur out of it to knit a Halloween costume for a neighborhood chihuahua.)

Before I comment briefly on the recent unpleasantness or on the topic of the thread -- you know what I'm going to say about that -- let me pass on a story a lot more interesting than anything I have to say -- and let's hope Mitt gets questioned about it, and maybe gets this Governor handed to him as his running mate. (I still expect the convention will overrule his pick, whoever it is. The Paulistas have plenty of michief to pull.)

Much of the uproar over Gov. Nikki Haley’s budget vetoes centers around her elimination of the South Carolina Arts Commission. While the calls for lawmakers to override the arts veto are certainly justified, the governor also cut another program which deserves just as much outrage – nearly half a million dollars destined for rape crisis centers and sexual assault prevention programs.

According to the governor, state funding for rape victims “attempts to serve a portion of our population for which we extend our sympathy and encouragement, but nevertheless, it is only a small portion of South Carolina’s chronically ill or abused.” Haley said the $453,000 designated for the South Carolina Coalition Against Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault’s rape crisis centers “distracts from the [Department of Health and Environmental Control's] broader mission of protecting South Carolina’s public health.”

However, SCCADVASA Executive Director Pamela Jacobs said in a statement that sexual assault is “undoubtedly a public health issue. And with rates of sexual violence far surpassing national numbers, it is also one of the most serious health epidemics facing South Carolinians.”

In fact, the State Law Enforcement Division reports that South Carolina’s rape rate has exceeded the national rate every year since 1982. Jacobs said the coalition’s 15 sexual assault programs in South Carolina helped over 5,000 victims in 2011 — over half of which were children — and emergency hotline workers answered over 7,000 calls. SCCADVASA’s programs also provide prevention education to over 50,000 South Carolina students, which Jacobs said helps prevent sexual violence before it occurs.

“If this veto is not overridden, rape crisis centers will lose 37% of their current state funding, which will drastically reduce their ability to respond to victims and provide prevention education,” said Jacobs.

This isn’t the first time South Carolina’s first female governor has issued vetoes which undermine women’s interests. In June, Gov. Haley nixed a bill which would offer an optional cancer-preventing vaccine to young women, despite having co-sponsored a mandatory vaccine bill while she was a state representative. Lawmakers failed to overturn Haley’s veto of the HPV vaccine bill, even though the Palmetto State has one of the highest death rates in the country for the type of cancer HPV causes.

Romney-Haley 2012 -- a dream for Democrats because it would be a nightmare for even Republican women.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

On the recent unpleasantness, I will simply state that the point I was making was never responded to -- perhaps never understood -- and I did what i had generally avoided doing, responding to the comments of the one person here I have little respect for. I think peace is best preserved by my making that non-responding a strict rule, and will follow it from here on.

As fpr the thread topic, I believe that even now Nate Silver's assumptions that are the base of the model he uses are wrong, that there have been several important changes in the underlyig situation from 2010 that make that a considerable outlier, and that Obama is probably 2% higher across the board -- except for the Area that includes Appalachia and the 'border states' (from the Civil War, not those that are currently border states, i.e. TN, KS, KY) and OK.

I also believe and will at some time lay out in my usual horrendous detail that this represents Romney's high point, that from here on in, he will only go down, because as I keep insisting, there is no 'pool of uncommitted' left for him to replace the voters his gaffes and the Obama use of his various personal weaknesses will cost him. Then comes the convention and the collapse as the republicans become a laughing stock.

Just to make one small piece of my point, can anyone explain the fact that i could, easily, make a list of twenty or more 'surrogates[' who have publicly not merely disagreed with, but 'dissed' Romney publicly, the latest being the Boehner quote from the other day. But I could include Pawlenty -- afteer he had quit and was Romney's vice-chairman -- Huntsman, rubio, Christie, and on and on, check Steve Benen's archives for examples. You just don't do that to the 'titular leader of the party' who is already in what is seen as a close but uphill fight unless you are damn sure he's already a hopeless cause.

The Republicans know they have the 'new McGovern' -- electorally, only. (McGovern was hopeless -- and the eagleton goof killed him, but he at least had inspiring ideas and a sadly sympathetic "poor mutt" personality that Mr. Money totally lacks. And McGovern did appeal to the remnants of the left Democrats what few were 'left' in the other sense. I'm sorry to keep arguing this one, but even the TPers have no love for the 'rich Preppie type" who they see as typical of the enemy, however much they might fall for the theoretical blessings the rich in general will shower down upon the economy.)

More later, i guess.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

One quick point on the electoral question. I believe that many of you, particularly Sir Charles, are missing one point. The groups of 'permanent Republicans' the 'Obama haters' and those who are convinced that teh ACA is a horror -- are already being counted in Romney's totals. There aren't a group of them that didn't already know about it but will suddenly discover 'oh, gee, we have a black President, i'm a racist, guess I better vote this time.' There aren't people who will suddenly discover how 'awful and socialistic' the ACA is -- in fact, just the reverse. There will be a substantial number of minds that will be changed from receiving the 'medical loss ratio' checks alone, or finding out they can get insured even with a pre-existing condition -- or who hear their friends tell them. Again, this group -- and Romney's numbers -- can only go down. (The same with the large number of people who are blaimibng Obama for the high price of gas. If the price comes down, they'll peel off -- not a lot of them, but there won;t be more joining them.

Sometime later tonight I'll do something on the Senate. While there are a coupl of slim question marks, we are in a position to come close to what we did in 2006 and 2008, hold everything out there (NE and MO are the only real questions there) and pick up a lot of races that looked hopeless. We'll win AZ, NV, ND (that's hold, but it tends to be talked of as a sure R win -- it is NOT) almost certainly, King should get ME, and there may be other good chances. We have great candidates out there this time, we will benefit from the Romney bloopers, and the Republicans' '96 strategy' of punting the President and saving Congress shouldn't work.

[kathy a.]

the initiative to repeal the death penalty in california is now Prop. 34. here's a quick piece on what it's about.

i am not normally a fan of initiatives, because so many have ended up as bad law -- including CA's current death penalty system. the only way the current unworkable and hugely expensive death penalty scheme can be changed to life without the possibility of parole, however, is by another initiative.

[oddjob]

sexual assault is “undoubtedly a public health issue. And with rates of sexual violence far surpassing national numbers, it is also one of the most serious health epidemics facing South Carolinians.”

Not to mention it causes the sort of emotional scarring that perpuates itself into the sexual abuse of future generations as well as destroying lives (both literally as well as simply in terms of their usefulness to their families and society). That is a particularly good example of God visiting the sins of the fathers upon the children even unto the third and fourth generations, as it were. (That's a phrase that appears prominently in some significant passages in what Christians call the Old Testament - a part of the Bible fundies tend to be preoccupied with).

Apparently their governor is actually so stupid as to not understand this??

[Sir Charles]

Jim,

Your optimism is boundless.

I think Silver is probably dead on, just as he was in 2008. Obviously he will adjust his predictions as more polling comes in, although I suspect that this may be a shockingly stagnant race in terms of polling. My gut reaction is that a huge proportion of the electorate is completely locked in and that the battle is really over less than 10% of the voters in roughly 20 percent of the states.

I feel like we will almost certainly lose Nebraska and Missouri, I think North Dakota remains a lift, Montana is difficult, I don't think Massachusetts is a sure thing, Wisconsin is iffy, Florida is not a sure thing, Virginia remains close, Nevada may be more difficult than we suspect, and I think Arizona remains uphill.

We could still easily end up with a net loss of six seats without question. I tend to think it won't; I am guessing we will end up with a net two seat loss, losing four and picking up three (MA, ME, and NV).

[Sir Charles]

I meant losing five (Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, and Wisconsin).

[oddjob]

I wouldn't be surprised if in 12 years AZ is voting blue, but I don't see it now.

[nancy]

SirC and oddjob -- Voting blue.

After the Supreme Court's quick back-of-the-hand to Montana's standing law, I'm less worried about Tester. How many people in Montana want to go back to the days of impotent corporate victimhood with no recourse? Anaconda's, W.R. Grace's, Copper Kings', Railroad Barons' histories etc. Now introduce the Keystone project, which gives them nothing but environmental headache in perpetuity.

Tea Party candidate has no answer for the renewed out-of-state and even out-of-country infusions of cash toward rigging Montana elections which the recent SCOTUS decision invites. Montana was the home of Mike Mansfield, and I'm betting his governing philosophy will be revived. No deflective, phony 2nd amendment TP gun discussions even needed here.

Optimistic on this one. We'll see.

[Sir Charles]

nancy,

There is definitely a best case scenario in which we take pretty much everything except Nebraska (which seems truly out of reach thus far).

My guess is that in some states Obama will prove to be an advantage -- Massachusetts, Nevada, Virginia, and, hopefully, Wisconsin. I suspect that he is going to be a drag in Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota. I am not sure if he helps or hurts Nelson in Florida.

I am not sure where Montana is going. I was feeling very optimistic after 2008, but I am much less certain now.

[Sir Charles]

oddjob,

I, too, think Arizona will be in our column and I would guess that 2020 or 2024 is a pretty good bet. It's going to fall in line with New Mexico and Nevada I think.

[Joe S]

Sir C, I don't think Obama will be a drag in Missouri, Montana, or North Dakota. In Montana and North Dakota, Obama did as well as any Democrat since Johnson (not counting the Clinton three ways which really aren't comparable). Missouri's a weird state. Obama could help in lifting the Black vote there, and I don't think White Missourians are as hostile to McCaskill as they are to Obama. I think with all these Senate races, there's a problem with Rasmussen polling which is skewing everything.

[Sir Charles]

Joe,

Obama ran really well in those places in 2008. But they also seem to be the places where his support has collapsed the most -- see also Indiana.

Obama really did well with a pretty big swath of white voters in the heartland -- one of the more exciting aspects of his performance.

Sadly, this does not seem to have had legs.

This seems to be why Obama seems to have a better chance to win in more diverse places like Virginia and even North Carolina than he does in Missouri or Indiana.

If you look at Nate today he seems to affirm my suggestion above that this is looking to be a very stable race and one which resembles 2004.

So I stand by my sense that Obama will not be helpful in Montana, Missouri, North Dakota or Indiana, and will likely trail our Senate candidates in each of those states. Again, I think he will help pull people like Tim Kaine and Elizabeth Warren over the finish line.

(I hope my pessimism about the great white way proves wrong, but I doubt it.)

[oddjob]

Sadly, this does not seem to have had legs.

In hindsight I suspect Sister Sarah had something to do with those wins. It's hard for me to believe there weren't an awful lot of people (especially women) who took one look at/listen to her and couldn't help but reflexively think that the last thing they wanted to do was vote to make the dumb ditz of the high school cheerleading squad the next vice president. (No, so far as I remember she wasn't a cheerleader, but the stereotype makes my point.)

[big bad wolf]

the silver site is pretty reassuring. i like reassuring.

about the recent contretremps, i express disappointment. we have our points of disagreement. we have our little leftist intemperances, which we excuse in ourselves because, like most people we see ourselves as right, and more, believe reality supports us. for the most part, i think that is correct. it is precisely because we are muchly correct, mostly empirical, and magnanimously inclined that i think we should take great care when we have our (non-decemberist, non-radiohead, non-springsteen) differences to avoid strong words and rough judgments. most of us here are far too old to believe we speak truth or to assume the worst in others who have shown thoughtfulness and significant common cause. our frustration should not be taken out on ourselves. let's save that for those rich bastards.

Defenceless under the night
Our world in stupor lies;
Yet, dotted everywhere,
Ironic points of light
Flash out wherever the Just
Exchange their messages:
May I, composed like them
Of Eros and of dust,
Beleaguered by the same
Negation and despair,
Show an affirming flame.

[janinsanfran]

I think there is likely to be a law of diminishing returns at some point -- really how many thirty second spots can people endure? Those of us who live in California have perhaps proved that. Remember a filthy rich candidate named Meg Whitman who got beat by a cheap old retread, now our governor, by about 10 percent of the vote. This was a pretty good test of political advertising overkill.

[Bill H]

You do realize that all of the euphoria about the landslide that Obama is going to win by could evaporate in a heartbeat if Europe collapses, which is overwhelmingly possible, and this nation's unemployment rises, even to as little as 8.5% or so? Or Syria could invoke some sort of response of a military nature that creates an oil crisis, and Nate Silver would be singing a far different song.

I too want an Obama win, but Obama supporters are reminding me of the San Diego Chargers' running back who was so elated at scoring a touchdown that he spiked the ball at the five yard line. Cross the goal line, people, before you start the victory dance.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Bill: I'm the only person here who is, against the scorn of many, predicting the landslide. Others here are still worried about a Romney victory. I know a European collapse would change things, but it ould depend on the timing, and the ability of the Democrats to make the (perfectly true) point that the reason for the collapse was that Europe was trying Republican remedies of austerity and budget reduction. It will be a hard sell against the mythical 'socialistic Europe that is cueing the Obama policies' but it can be done.

(Also, by that time, i expect Romney to have so little credibility and respect that no one would put our economy in his hands.)

And, OT from the thread so far, Joe Biden wins the day with:

(At the National Council of La Raza -- h/t Blog for Arizona)“He wants you to show your papers, but he won’t show us his,” in reference to Romney’s support of the Arizona immigration law while refusing to release his own tax returns.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

I started a post on the Senate races, but it 'got late early' so I'll put it up tomorrow. But I can defend most of the predictions as observations based on study of the actual state blogs and newspapers, and not from the same blimp most people have decided to talk from. (I still haven't taken a close look at IN or VA -- though the IN is pretty solidly leaning our way. Donnelly is a Blue Dog who fits with Bayh and Lugar, Lugar was popular and his defeat was resented, and the defeat was strictly on his residency problem, not ideological, so Mourdock's win does not signal a strong TP support behind him.)

The rest, in not toooooo much detail, tomorrow morning.

[Paula B]

BBW--Thanks for your wisdom and for briging Auden's prophetic lines into the discussion, oddly appropriate some 70 years after they were written. Again, I'm with nancy and oddjob on this issue. Unanimity is not required here, though some would prefer (maybe, demand) it. We're not deciding law. The fate of the world is not really in our hands, but some might argue otherwise when the discussions heat up. That being said, readers can always skip comments written by anyone they don't care to engage. I know I do, and I suspect my comments are probably skimmed by more than a few. That's all right, I still want to be at the party.
As many of you know, I am a big fan of KN. His view of the world from South America, his work, his life experience bring a perspective unlike anyone else’s. You can never predict where this man will be coming from, no matter what we're talking about. It's like having Zorba the Greek at the table. Obviously, we need him more than he needs us. Please stay, KN.

[Paula B]

Just had a chance to look at today's Post so will add that, unlike the Arlington Diocese, Cogitamus does not require participants to sign a loyalty oath. Incroyable! Talk about circular firing squads!

[oddjob]

As to RCH's assessment of the Mormon church ("of organization men, for organization men"), I think this post today by Sully supports it and adds interesting info., too.

[Sir Charles]

Bill H,

I think Jim is the only one calling for an Obama landslide.

I see it -- as do most others here I think -- as a close and dangerous race in which Obama has a small, but so far consistent advantage. I am not in the least bit complacent about it and view the stakes as monumental.

Paula,

I promise we will never have a loyalty oath here -- other than to pay tribute to Stanley whenever his picture graces these pages.

[kathy a.]

seconding paula's thanks to BBW, her own comments, and nancy and oddjob.

i value cogblog because people bring so many ideas and perspectives -- and because it is a civil, respectful, and safe place to have discussions about this and that. this is a wonderful community.

i don't read everything, don't agree with everything i read, and don't expect everyone here to hang on my every word. but it is really valuable to hear other people's perspectives, see what interests them, and to think about things i might not otherwise. the respect part is important to me.

[Joe S]

Bill, I believe we've all disagreed with Prup on a Democratic landslide. Like everyone but Prup here, I'm predicting that Obama wins 50.5- 52% of the vote to 47-49% for Romney. And that's if there's no economic catastrophe anywhere else.

[Joe S]

Bill, if you want a hot and uncivil debate around here, you will get one with discussing the relative merit of Bruce Springsteen's later work and David Lanois as a producer for just about anybody.

Also, don't make fun of pictures about dogs.

[big bad wolf]

joe s, :)

[oddjob]

"...Far from a good faith effort to appeal to fellow citizens, [Romney's speech to the NAACP] was a cynical exercise in pandering. And the message was received by the right people."

[nancy]

Oddjob, one thing that we can observe is that Mitt's character, lack of, is holding steady. He seems to have pushed pandering far into the disgusting column. If that's what he states in public, one has to assume that what he says in private is far worse. Those sentiments are exactly what I can read on the FB pages of my Mormon extended-family member twenty-somethings. "Free stuff." "Get a job." "Welfare cheats." Deeply-ingrained and unapologetic in their casual racism.

One the other hand lying repeatedly is OK.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Nancy: That lying is a good deal more imprtant than most of his lies. To quote Steve Benen from today's blog:

To put it mildly, this has the potential to do some very serious damage to Romney's candidacy.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For one thing, there's the question of which of Romney's contradictory answers is the truth. When the editors of FactCheck.org initially took Romney's claims at face value to reject Democratic criticisms, they said the candidate must be telling the truth about his Bain departure date, because if he didn't really leave until 2002, then "Romney would be guilty of a federal felony by certifying on federal financial disclosure forms that he left active management of Bain Capital in February 1999."

FactCheck.org meant that to be proof that Romney's claims were true. Now that there's ample evidence to the contrary, it's worth considering that whole "guilty of a federal felony" question again.

This is NOT a trivial mistake or unimportant lie.

[kathy a.]

oddjob, thanks for the tip via sully on how the mormans make money, and how the church views profit-making as a spiritual act. the underlying article is fascinating.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Back to the Senate:
I started what was supposed to be a short post, one of a series breaking the races down by region. NM and NV are easy, but I also included AZ, which meant I had to talk about Dr. Richard Carmona, and that's never a short one -- not until he's known as well nationally as he is in AZ. So let me compress the others even more, and ten drop in my original commdents on the AZ race -- and hopefully I'll get to the other regions during cat box breaks.

NM: This state just doesn't make news. Jeff Bingaman, whose retirement is creating the open seat, served for 30 years and probably didn't make 30 headlines in all that time. And almost no one outside the state is paying much attention to the race for his replacement. Right now, that is good for us. Heather Wilson, the Republican candidate, is almost reaching the 'perpetual candidate' stage, and is becoming a little too familiar, while the Democrat, Rep. Martin Heinrich, is a solid, center-left candidate with a good reputation, an attractive persona, and, for now, a substantial lead. So far there has been no poll showing Wilson ahead, and recently, while a Democratic-leaning pollster showed her as running 4 points behind, a Republican pollster showed her trailing by 9, and Schneider over the 50% mark. New Mexico races always tighten up near the end, and we have to keep an eye on it, but right now, it looks like a safe hold for the Democrats.

NV: This needs more later, but right now it is a race between a true 'empty suit,' Dean "Senator by Appointment" Heller, and an attractive centrist Democrat, Rep. Shelley Berkeley. Heller actually might do better if he were crazier -- Nevadans can vote for Jim Gibbons-type psychopaths -- but he isn't. He's just dull, with little appeal on his own, and Berkeley is already running even with him.

The current 'psuedo-scandal' about Berkeley -- and the house Ethics Commission's laughable investigation -- may, in the long run, help her -- there are questions if she is well enough known in some parts of the state that are redder than the rest. (The claim is that she failed to disclose that her husband -- a doctor -- was in fact a kidney specialist before she worked to save Nevada's only kidney transplant center. But everyone knew her husband was a doctor, and she assumed -- maybe from misguided pride -- that everyone knew his specialty -- and she had in fact mentioned it in testimony. But the Republicans in their magnificent hypocrisy have actually opened an ethics inquiry. It should only help her in the long run.

I won't argue she is a cinch, but I'd say she is certainly a toss-up, and, given Heller's vulnerabilities, gives us a good chance to take the seat. (I am assuming the rest of you are right about the close election and not giving any candidate the advantage that the Obama landslide will give them in reality.)

Then there is Arizona, and I can just copy what i wrote earlier -- and don't have the time for proofreading much, I'm needed for other things:

Next is Arizona, and ordinaruly the line would be simple. "If Jeff Flake survives the primary, the general is a sure thing." Unlike Trent Franks (whose latest stunt is accusing the Obama Administration of being 'infiltrated by the Muslim Brotherhood') Flake is not one of the Republican crazies, he's apparently personally quite likable and popular, and, at least in the pre-Obama days was capable of opposing his party on Iraq, on immigration, as well as on Bush's budget hiding. (He tends to be a fierce defecit hawk Libertarian.) He's a Mormon in a state with a strong Mormon presence.

If he is able to defeat the more TP-aligned business man and self-funded candidate, Wil Cardon, he should have been set for the election ... except that the Democrats cleared the field for the nomintion of Dr. Richatd Carmona. (Who himself was unwilling to run if Gabby Giffords had been able and willing to take the strain if the campaign. Once she declared she was out, he became the nominee, with his only opponent in the primary dropping out.)

Carmona has yet to get the notice of the blimp-riders, to bring back my old metaphor. (One prominent exception is this piece in the NEW YORKER.)

Actually, that's not so surprising. When you read about Carmona, you think you are reading a somewhat hyper proposal for a politically based tv show, written by someone who has an unrealistic view of politicians. You can hear the net executives as they castigated the jerk before throwing him out. "C'mon, guy, a lead who us an ex-street kid, a Puwrto Rican high school drop-out who got his GED in Vietnam, and who went on to become Surgeon General of the US? And of course you had to have him retiring and then exposing the President's political manipulation of his office, pure cliche. But c'mon, making him be both a surgeon and a Deputy Sheriff at the same time, who ya kiddin'? Nobody would believe that.

"And then, that bit about him being a 'registered independent' who the Republicans tried to get to run for Congress six years before he ran for the Senate as a democrat -- realllly? And him being the reluctant candidate, not because he didn't want to run, but because he wouldn't stand in the way of a Congreswoman who barely survived an assassination attempt -- trying for the LIFETIME audience, aren't you.

"What's worse, someboyd like that, he's gonna be a centrist, maybe not a blue dog, but something like that real-life guy who'd been in Reagan's cabinet, Webb or somethin,' but you make this guy out as a real Progressive. Okay, you give Al Franken a chance to get a guest spot -- can't give them all to Donna Brazile -- but in real life, you'd never get two guys like that campaigning together.

"And that scene in the pilot, where your guy sees a tracker for the opposition, sees the guy limping, goes over and gives him a free medical examination and tells him to 'get that hematoma treated, hell, you couldn't sell that in a romance novel."

Every single bit of that is true. And i didn't mention the 'cop of the year award' he won or his statement on abortion that is the most unequivocal support of Roe I've seem a Democratic candidate make for years.

And I didn't mention that the latest polls show Carmona already tied with Flake -- and considerably ahead of Cardon.

ARIZONA: Can't see the momentum turning. We'll get this pick-up. Carmona has been called a 'rock star candidate' and compared to 'The Most Interesting Man in the World' and the scary thing is that it isn't much of an exaggeration.

[nancy]

How the Mormons make money . The graphic has to, as they say, 'go viral'.

Goody.

I made the mistake of throwing away a precious afternoon and a chunk of money visiting the 'Polynesian Village *Center' years ago on a vacation to Hawaii. *Mormon missionary operation in disguise. And truly truly cheesy.

[kathy a.]

cheesy? in honolulu?? heh.

i haven't been to the island state for a very long time, but where there is a tourist economy, there is cheese aplenty, cheese galore. and where many cultures come together, there too will be the unexpected. hawaiian history includes missionaries. what i had not really thought about was modern mormon missionaries practicing their faith by fleecing tourists in hawaii.

[nancy]

A bit of what Amanda Marcotte had to say about Romney's latest revealing stunt:

What makes it especially grating that Romney is playing the black-people-just-want-to-take-your-stuff-instead-of-earn-their-own-living card is that all this is in response to the Affordable Care Act, which mostly expands insurance coverage by getting people onto private plans. Oh, and if they don’t do that? They have to pay a tax penalty. Remember that? The thing Republicans were so mad about last week? Unless Romney wants to claim there’s a race-based exception to the law, the “free stuff” whine doesn’t make a lot of sense. Plus, calling health care “free stuff” is just plain offensive. It equates getting cancer treatment and vaccinations with getting a shiny new TV set. Only moral monsters make that kind of equation, or people who’ve been turned into them by listening to too much Rush Limbaugh.

All in all, he seems to be having a suitably bad day.

[Paula B]

Nancy (and Amanda Marcotte): And, if people get onto private plans, they PAY for their health care by paying premiums. Or else they PAY a tax penalty. There ain't no free stuff in this equation. I'm sure no one on the long and lucrative health-care food chain is giving anything away. Not to worry.

[Sir Charles]

He's such an asshole.

About to take off for a long weekend in South Beach.

Glad comments are working.

[nancy]

How the Mormons Make Money -- Oop. I didn't mean that graphic. Although it's good too.

I meant the Sully post that oddjob noted earlier: Capitalism as a Religion . Am putting that graphic in storage, for yes, personal reasons. :-) One of my little FBing Mormon relatives recently came home only six months into his missionary assignment because he thought it was "dumb." Hey -- that's a sign.

[Linkmeister]

Hey! Just because we occasionally hand out plastic lei to tourists, sell matching aloha muu muus and shirts to good ol' Marge and Joe from Keokuk, and pump out mai tais with umbrellas at every bar in Waikiki is no reason to say we're cheesy!

The Polynesian Cultural Center up in Laie (LDS HQ and home to BYU-Hawai'i, a four-year LDS college) does come close. But as antidotes we have Iolani Palace and the Mission Houses Museum downtown and the Bishop Museum in Kalihi, as well as the Honolulu Academy of Arts/Contemporary Museum east of downtown. Then we have a live volcano (NOT Cheesy!) over on the Big Island.

Harumph.

[kathy a.]

linkmeister, aloha! i in no way meant to imply that the entire state, much less all of the greater honolulu area, is cheesy. there is a lot of heaven on earth there. plus, you win the 50-state sweepstakes for most attractive live volcano.

[nancy]

Linkmeister -- Young fools we were. Skipped the Iolani Palace for Donny and Marie-Land because of the word 'Cultural' in the name along with 'Center'. Wish I'd had you along as 'trip advisor.' Thought at the time it would be a decent immersion in island history. Live and learn. Oh well, and caveat emptor, also too. I did find Oahu, Honolulu, and later Maui-exploring fascinating. This was a Christmas foray when the temps when we left were sub-zero. As they were when we returned without proper down-filled duds at the airport.

bbw. Thanks for the contretemps response and Auden. Yeats too, a while earlier. Can the center hold?

Way too hot to think here and I'm told that by next week we'll hit 108º. Planning on moving to cellar quarters.

Sir C, enjoy South Beach. Water. Plunge. Repeat.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Agreed, and more so, Sir C. Plenty of cold water, cool drinks, and as little attention to news, politics, or us as possible. (That and wearing a hat are equally necessary to avoid headaches.)

(I will admit I had to restrain a puckishly evil impulse to ask if Nancy were wishing you plumbing problems, but even i wouldn't say something like that.)

Oh, and to everyone, two interesting stories from the day. How do you think the lesbian sex scandal involving the Lieutenant Governor of Florida will affect the election? (Hmm, come to think of it, there have been tons of straight sex scandals, and all sorts of gay Congressmen have been caught in 'wide stances' and the like, but I can't remember another political scandal involving lesbian activity.)

My feeling it will have a small but noticeable effect, at least in Florida and neighboring states. It will be just another argument convincing evangelicals and hyper-Christians that they were wrong to get so heavily invested in political solutions, that they should retreat to their former apolitical position (which was standard for evangelicals before 1970 or so), that politics is a dirty business, and that Republicans are 'no better than Democrats.'

And of course by retreating from politics, they don't have to face the question of voting for a Mormon -- and I believe most of you underestimate how difficult this will be for a small but not insignificant strain of the Christian Right.

Then there's Mr. Money's recent problem of choosing between admitting he's lied all along about when he left Bain, or that he lied both in SEC Hearings and -- irony of irony -- in a hearing questioning the legitimacy of his Massachusetts residency when he ran for Governor. (Gee, isn't that sumpin' like saying you wuz born in Hawaii when you really came from Kenya? Sumpin like?)

You can live for months on popcorn this delicious.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Oh, and speaking of ironies, I think the one detail that will convince people that it is true -- especially those who start in with stereotypes -- is the cigar, which the supposed lover admits caused the fire -- though Cole claims it was deliberate, not accidental. For minds like these, 'cigar-smoking woman' = lesbian, and, to be honest, the portrait Cole paints of Ramos (the alleged lover) as a controlling, dominating member of the supposed partnership makes the connection more likely.

That fact also helps convince me, because the details are so believably consistent with the portrait Cole paints -- and I simply don't believe a black grandmother who is also a minister could know enough to invent a story that consistent. And the idea she's trying to avoid criminal prosecution is weakened by the type of offense she is accused of, not stealing money or the like, but leaking a tape to a reporter.

[Linkmeister]

We had a mortgage interest in some land on the Big Island which was overrun by Kilauea about 20 years ago. Fortunately for us we got a quitclaim on it when the lava was approaching.

Beautiful volcano, yes, but voracious.

[nancy]

(I will admit I had to restrain a puckishly evil impulse to ask if Nancy were wishing you plumbing problems, but even i wouldn't say something like that.),

Oh yes you would. And you did. :))

[Paula B]

Dick Cheney says he wants Mitt to be in the Oval
Office the next time we're attacked. I guess Cheney hasn't noticed that no one cares (!) what he thinks anymore.

I'd prefer Stanley, any day.

[kathy a.]

linkmeister, yikes! we visited the volcano in about 1970, which kind of dates me, but talk about a force of nature. there was a minor eruption at the time, so you could see these fingers of red creeping along in the dark. i think you are not normally supposed to carry rocks off from a national park, but the ranger let us get fresh chunks of lava, since there was more where that came from.

we also visited the iolani palace and museums and waterfalls and etc. etc. even the honolulu zoo, which at the time had a horse on exhibit. my mother was, by damn, going to get the most out of her slightly dated "hawaii on $5 a day" book.

[Linkmeister]

Kathy, I promise you the Zoo has improved a great deal since then. Why, it's even given up horses. Not to worry, though, you can still find them at the Hawai'i Polo Club.

Actually, that's a treat. Watching those beautiful animals running up and down a beach-side polo course with a picnic lunch is a lot of fun. Haven't done it in 20 years, but I still remember it.

[Sir Charles]

Linkmeister,

My wife and I spent a week on both Maui and Kauai back in 1991 and it was pretty much perfect. Since then I've been back a few times on business in Honolulu and other than the overly long plane trip, I found that pretty damn pleasant too.

Nice day poolside here. I read, got a massage, and otherwise took it easy. (I did answer some emails, but hey what can you do?). Heading out for fancy Japanese in a minute.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

Incredibly, three people today have suggested the unthinkable, that Romney might not be the nominee after the Bain stories. Sully brings up the comparison with the Clinton impeachment for perjury -- and even Sully misses a couple of statements under oath. Steve Benen links to him in a way that, at least, implies that his question is legitimate.

And Bob Lord at Blog for Arizona says:

Last bit of speculation: What if it's a worst case scenario, and Mitt has to acknowledge lying on a sworn statement or two, or has to disclose a tax return where he paid no tax on 10 mil of income? I don't think this is a likelihood by any stretch, but it is becoming possible that Mitt won't be the nominee. It's still a long shot, but ten times more likely now than it was a week ago."

This is a major point. There almost has to be some perjury somewhere, there are just too many statements under oath that conflict.

Hmm, Joe, our bet was that Mitt Romney wouldn't get 100 EVs. If he doesn't run...

(I think it's a slim chance that he won't run, but this is another major loss he can't make up.)

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

And one other thing, on my comment from last night @1:40. I am still unable to think of any American political sex scandal involving lesbian activities. Am I forgetting an obvious one, or is this a first?

[Morzer]

I would suggest that Romney will be the nominee, because the GOP can't possibly afford an open convention with the likes of Gingrich and Santorum rising from their coffins to bash each other - yet again - on prime time.

I suspect the Democrats will just hold the Senate and am pretty hopeful that Elizabeth Warren will be one of them. Brown has been making some very strange and obviously false statements of late and she out-raised him last quarter.

I'll predict that we gain 12-15 House seats.

I don't see how Romney wins the presidency, but I would be amazed if Obama won by better than 51.5-48.5. 297 electoral votes for Obama is my guess. I don't think Romney will take New Hampshire, by the way. He's not a particularly good fit for its mindset.

[nancy]

I know it's Friday and all, but before we slip off for the weekend, I thought some might want to take a look at how Mitt has attempted to deflect from the newest Bain revelations all day today by demanding an apology from the President. "Absolutely -- my goodness" says he.

“What kind of president would have a campaign that says something like that about the nominee of another party?” Romney said. “This is reckless and absurd on his part, and it’s something that’s beneath his dignity. I hope he recognizes that even fellow Democrats have said that."

As Carpenter says above "this is Twilight Zone shit."

It's hot. I think collective we should probably just 'go fishin' and come back later to see how this bad comedy ends. Meanwhile at home -- gazpacho I hope. Late.

[Sir Charles]

Jim,

The Republicans will no more get rid of Romney as the nominee than they got rid of Bush when his drunk driving arrest came out. It's not going to happen.

(And I can't think of any lesbian sex scandals in politics, but I'm not sure that this is true.)

Morzer,

I see the election pretty much as you do. I do think Obama will take NH, but Romney will likely make it close.

nancy,

See my new post above -- I am just laughing at the idea of Obama apologizing to him.

I would imagine that the White House is licking its chops over this reaction. And ready to bring on more.

[paula]

Of course, there was Eleanor Roosevelt, but I don't know that there was a scandal involved.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

There wasn't, nor was there when Barbara Jordan came out in retirement, nor about the 'closet door of glass; owned by a long-serving Mid-Atlantic Senator.

This one is a real scandal, complete with a dubious prosecution, a passed lie detector test, court documents exposing the craziness of the Fla LtGov office, etc. Check out the article I linked to above.

(And while the two stories aren't connected, the mere time connection should focus attention on the TB story -- that Florida chose to close the only hospital devoted to TB cases after they had been warned about the biggest TB outbreak in the state in decades -- and covered up the warning so that most Floridians didn't hear of it because 'after all, it's mostly just hitting the homeless and people in halfway houses, y'know, like blacks, so why get the rest of the state agitated.)