Wisconsin Recall Live Blogging

 

Not since the Salahis has a more embarrassing guest been permitted on the White House grounds. Due to this egregious lapse of security I was able to fist bump with the president tonight. 

I am anxiously awaiting more results from Wisconsin.  In the early going, Scott Walker has a sizeable lead, but the exit polls and the heavy turnout suggest a close race and a long night.  Still it makes me nervous to see Walker with a 20% lead with 17% of the vote counted.  I am assuming that all of this is from very heavily Republican areas. 

I am going to try to hang in there until the bitter end.  And hoping for good news.

Let's see what the night has in store.

Update: Wow, how quickly that bubble was burst.  I guess my fears about the 20% lead were warranted.  MSNBC has already called it for Walker and with 22% of the vote in Walker is ahead by a margin of 61-38%.  This is incredibly disappointing. 

I guess we need to see if we will pick up one state senate seat to see if we can gain a majority and thwart further damage being done by Walker and co. 

Further Update:  Jesus Christ, what an absolutely unmitigated disaster from the looks of things.  I wish I had a better feel for where the vote was coming from, but it seems safe to say that with 50% of the vote counted that this does not appear likely to be remotely close.  I am curious how the polling could have been so off.

Well the gap has closed a bit -- I am just hoping for a modicum of respectability here -- with the spread down to 11% with 79% of the vote counted.  This is just a brutal, brutal loss.

On the plus side, the Celtics have taken a 3-2 lead over the Heat and will be heading back to Boston for a potentially deciding game.  Yes, I'm grasping at straws here.

Further Update and Post Mortem:  Okay, so the final results were not nearly as bad as things looked when I headed off to bed.  Obviously there were significant Democratic strongholds still to report, leaving us the with a final margin of 6 - 7 points.  Not great, but not a landslide, which really would have shaken me pretty deeply.  In the end, the polls of last week proved to be pretty damn accurate and well within their margin of error.  I find that strangely reassuring, because a double digit Walker win would have thrown all of that in doubt.

 And it looks like we may actually pick up the Senate seat that returns a majority to the Democrats -- it's a small, but possibly significant consolation prize. 

So what do we make of this in the end?  Here are my initial thoughts:

1.  A greatly expanded electorate does not always work for us -- I tend to think that it does, but this is a reminder that there is no great tide of progressive voters sitting on their hands and not voting that we can magically woo to the polls and begin a new day.  Yes, certain groups, particularly minorities and young people are often underrepresented in elections to our detriment, but expanding the electorate writ large tends to replicate the results of earlier elections;

2.  Getting outspent 7 to 1 is a bitch.  The flow of limitless plutocrat money into elections is going to have serious implications in state and local races.  I do not think that it will have much impact in the presidential race as I think that once you get past a certain level of spending there is a law of diminishing returns -- at least as long as you can return fire.  But in smaller races, I think this kind of massive money on one side is extraordinarily worrisome;

3.  Public employee unions are going to have to make a better case as to why their interests are more in line with the public than the interests of these right wing plutocrats.  The Republicans have been amazingly effective in painting the preposterous picture that a teacher making $60,000 a year with a pension and decent medical coverage is an aristocrat, while people like the Koch brothers are simply job creators;

4.  Recall elections might be different than ordinary elections.  One can imagine a certain reticence among portions of the electorate to institutionalize this kind of mid-term disruption to the ordinary course of politics.  Especially in a state like Wisconsin that has a kind of conservative personality -- not in an ideological sense, but in a general world view sense; and

5.  We cannot afford a minute of complacency regarding this fall's election.  The other side is going to go full bore after this thing with all of the resources and ferocity they've got -- we have to do the same. 

 

Comments

[low-tech cyclist]

Good Lord, what a rout. I figured we might lose, but not like this. 37% of precincts reporting statewide, and of the six Dem candidates (gov, lt gov, and 4 senate seats), not one is breaking 42%.

It may be close to my bedtime, but it's not too late to start drinking.

[big bad wolf]

i like the top button unbuttoned.

WI. wow. disappointing doesn't begin to capture it.

[Sir Charles]

bbw,

Less a fashion statement and more a commentary on my girth. It was a wonderfully cool evening here at least. A good 25 degrees cooler than the last time I was there.

[big bad wolf]

i buy about 1/3 of my shirts with the collar a half-size bigger for court or other tie days.

[nancy]

Sorryass. Crying in beer. Well, Cab Merlot anyway. Copper River salmon off-grill at eleven.

Well. There we have it. The evidence for the near future. Bucks will out. Fuck-a-duck and oh, swell.

Plus. I'm glad I've never had to wear a tie. Looks so suffocating.

[Sir Charles]

bbw,

Sadly, even my big boy shirts are a little tight right now.

nancy,

Thankfully the tie is not a daily accoutrement anymore. But I felt for the White House it was appropriate.

The last time I was there is was 95 out, the security line took an hour, and I compounded the tie with a black suit.

Boy this Wisconsin thing is shockingly bad.

[janinsanfran]

Serious beer tonight. When you go down as badly as we seem to have in WI, and you had the choice of time and place for the duel, you have to ask, what information were people acting on? Had they done their homework?

Why was Ohio able to kill an anti-union law by state referendum, but citizens of Wisconsin were willing to keep Walker and friends? If I'd been guessing, I'd have bet on WI before OH. But that just shows I didn't have the right information. Who did? Or does?

Now let's see whether tobacco companies can buy their way out of a popular tobacco tax in California. They poured millions into defeating the Cancer Society. Because we have unlimited spending on initiatives, we've long been a test case for whether there are any limits to the effects of Citizens United.

[kathy a.]

buck up, friends. do we want these assholes to think one over-bought victory for the evil means they win everything forever? i think not.

eyes on teh prize.

[T.R. Donoghue]

Im in a crappy hotel room, feeling depressed about Wisconsin and stumble upon that ridiculous picture. Pretty sure my neighbors heard my laugh through the wall.

Hope you enjoyed yourself!

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

no comment

maybe tomorrow

after three librium and a couple of dramamines

at least

[Bill H]

Well congrats on the fist bump with the President. I know you are a supporter, but regardless of one's party or inclinations about policy, to actually meet the holder of that office is a profound moment.

[paula b]

Words fail.

[nancy]

TR and Sir C. Speaking for us tie-less women-- uncomfortable pantyhose are now passé. That's progress.

Walker's bought victory should hugely demonstrate one of janinsanfran's points. More and better test review of all previous homework please. Just before the ballot, over and over. GOTV everywhere. Yes, golly. What was so hard about that?

[Joe S]

It looks like Walker picked up about 140,000 votes from 2010. Pretty amazing. It looks like th GOP didn't peak in 2010 in Wisconsin. 1.2 million voters is roughly what John McCain got and what Scott Walker got today. Wealthier, white suburban voters carried the day for Walker. The GOP turned out Presidential election numbers. The Dems were only able to slightly improve on their base from 1 million to 1.1. million votes (by about 100,000 votes). Barack Obama got nearly 1.7 million votes in 2008. It looks like the Republican base is just 20% bigger than the Democratic base in Wisconsin.

[nancy]

no comment

maybe tomorrow

after three librium and a couple of dramamines

at least

Indeed Prup.

[paula b]

Heart sick.g

[Crissa]

But of course early results would be depressing - none of the early votes are from Democratic strongholds.

I'm a bit confused as to why WI doesn't seem to be reporting any percentage for the provisionals. They're not even saying how many were cast, just ignoring them entirely. But the exit polls seem bad.

I guess you can buy a state election. But we knew that in California already - as long as you were sufficiently opaque. Carly and Whitman weren't opaque enough.

[low-tech cyclist]

It wasn't quite so bad in the end, but still 53-46 is worse than we anticipated losing the governor's race by.

But it does look like we may have picked up one Senate seat, although the margin is <800 votes out of 71,000, so there's a possibility of a recount, depending on WI laws.

[Sir Charles]

Bill,

Yes, I have to admit it is a little exciting to be face to face like that. He has an incredibly good smile that seems awfully real for a guy who is said not to enjoy politicking.

nancy,

The whole idea of pantyhose and suits and ties on an everyday basis in a city that is routinely in the nineties and incredibly humid for several months a year is absurd. I have greatly enjoyed the relaxation in attitudes about dress. I only wish it had occurred back in the days when I routinely walked a mile or more and took the subway to work each day. That got a bit unpleasant.

Joe,

I think it remains to be seen what this electorate would do in the presidential race. Evidently Obama was polling well ahead last night with these voters. See my additional thoughts above on recalls.

l-t c,

That is great news about the Senate seat. It would be nice to walk away with something from all of this effort. As I note above, I am also relieved that the margin turned out much closer than it had been.

Crissa,

I think that money is definitely a worry. I think there is some limits on its usefulness as seen in California, but I really worry about smaller states and markets.

[Sir Charles]

T.R.

So you don't see me as belonging in the corridors of power?

[Mandos]

I don't know what to say, except that the problems lie deeper than who votes for whom,

[janinsanfran]

Here's a simplified glimpse of how the Wisconsin debacle went down. According to a polling chart at TPM, for a year before late fall 2011, Walker was substantially in minus territory. So going for the recall probably seemed obvious and not too difficult. Then Walker became popular again -- and the recall we lost. The relevant question is why did Walker's underlying popularity improve so much -- enough that the money blitz could work?

[low-tech cyclist]

jan - I think that's the right question to ask. At the beginning of July, Walker's approval/disapproval was -14, but by the end of the year, it was +6. We really need to understand how the hell that happened.

Maybe the money blitz could have overcome -14, but like you say, the problem was it didn't have to.

[Sir Charles]

jan and l-t c,

I think that delay allowed time for Walker to appear more benign than he is, simply by things calming down and life going on. It's difficult to sustain the energy and outrage over a long period of time -- the electorate have short memories.

I think that this is why the result in Ohio was so much better than in Wisconsin. There was a relatively quick turnaround between the Kasich passed law and the referendum on it. The fever was still quite intense when the matter got to the electorate.

[kathy a.]

exist polls show a solid majority of wisconsinites felt that recall is inappropriate absent official misconduct.

it is interesting that voters were persuaded to view the recall that way. while it is a discouraging loss, it ought not bring much comfort to team romney in the regular election. this was a procedural victory, not a substantive one.

[kathy a.]

sir charles, that's a great photo!

[janinsanfran]

The argument that recalls are inherently inappropriate was much used by Dems in the Gray Davis recall in California in 2003. It got zero traction. I think this was due to having the Terminator jump in and about 60 other "candidates," creating theater so interesting that Gray Davis seemed gray indeed. The recall was very popular; it was fun.

Says something about the importance of having effective candidates; a conventional uninspiring hack as the "champion of the people" magnifies the power of money to distort results. I'm not saying Barrett lost a winnable race; but his apparent mediocrity probably didn't help.

[Paula B]

Could you leave this photo at the top of the page for a few weeks? It's so refreshing, as if none of this garbage was really going on beyond the White House fence.

[Sir Charles]

Paula,

It is quite a beautiful setting.

I have a couple of pretty decent pictures of the President and Michelle. (Also several with my finger in the way, not to mention the back of the guy in front of me.)

I also have one of Michelle's vegetable garden which I think will be the backdrop for all health care discussions. (Amusingly enough the refreshments for the evening were Dove Bars, cotton candy, pop corn, and soda. Not a healthy thing to be seen.)

[Paula B]

re: Dove Bars, etc.
We won't tell anyone. Her secret is safe with us.

[Sir Charles]

I broke a tooth on one two years ago. That was a highlight along with the 95 degree weather.

From the looks of both Michelle and (especially) Obama, they do not do a lot of Dove Bar indulging.

[nancy]

Sir C -- How could you break a tooth on a Dove Bar? Do tell.

[Sir Charles]

It was hard (the crunchy chocolate shell), I bit, and for a brief shining moment I thought I had a product liability suit as some fool put something crunchy in my Dove Bar.

Alas, it was my own foolish and evidently weakened tooth. I've never had anything like it happen before or since.

[nancy]

Oh no. Hope you got your bone density checked. Men get osteo too you know. You don't want that. Among other things, you'll shrink. Vertically that is. :)

[Crissa]

When I broke a tooth last, my spouse cut up all my food for me so I didn't have to bite anything. She can be really sweet when she thinks about ^-^
(Then there are times like when she forgot me at school and I walked the six miles home late at night while suffering allergies!

[oddjob]

Why Public Worker Pensions Could Become A 2012 Flashpoint

Public hostility towards organized public employees is also occurring in California.

[oddjob]

...But something else was exemplified by the Wisconsin results. It’s not that unions can’t win a defensive fight. ... And it’s not as if unions don’t still have significant political strength. ...

No, the real underlying story is that unions are losing their institutional legitimacy in modern America. The problem isn’t that most people hate unions. The problem for unions is that most people don’t care about them, or think about them, at all....

Hat tip, The Plum Line.

[Sir Charles]

oddjob,

I'm working on a post on just this very issue.

[oddjob]

As I once heard Billy Graham say, the opposite of love is not hate, the opposite of love is indifference.

[oddjob]

In Boston there's a chapter of electrical workers that regularly broadcasts advertisements about who they are and what they do on WBZ radio (the most recent one describing work they've done in restoring power to hospitals in Haiti), but obviously in metro Boston they're often preaching to the choir.

Having said that, growing up in the metro Philadelphia media market I can't ever recall hearing or seeing a similar advertisement from any of the Philadelphia area union chapters.

[nancy]

NYT ran a feature this morning in the Home and Garden section about the Romneys in La Jolla. Charlie Pierce has the link and summary. Man may get us through this election.

And another chapter in Mitt history. Post haircut assault.

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

I don't recall hearing them thus year, but there were one or two unions that regularly advertised on Mets games and pregames over the past year -- and there was a lot of referring to -- and specifically mentioning -- the unions involved as Citifield was being built. But I do wish that unions would -- if they have a hope of regaining even a little relevance -- beging to talk more about general political topics and less just about themselves, even in this time of threat. The "Look at US and what WE do" can (slightly) increase the most negatove perception about unions, that they are selfish and concerned with their own welfare above that of the public's. (Which can be true, and more frequently than usual in the two areas where unions get noticed these days, sports and police unions. This makes it easier to make the same argument against public service unions, where it is less true.)

[oddjob]

You have a point, Prup.

I think the vast majority of today's Americans have no idea they enjoy a two-day weekend thanks to unions. That's something unions ought to be making more well known than they do. That's the sort of national change a healthy labor movement can bring to pass.