Romney and the Enthusiasm Gap (and Monday Open Thread)

 

"Blue Moon Revisited" - Cowboy Junkies

Busy, busy week ahead, but I wanted to at least invite your thoughts on what is going on out there.  I worked all weekend and did not even pick up the newspaper on either day, so I feel slightly out of it beyond the fact that God proved himself to be a New England Patriots fan yesterday -- well that's how I see it anyway.  

One of the big themes of the last year -- one to which many on the left have subscribed -- is the idea that Obama and the Democrats will be burdened by an enthusiasm gap in the 2012 election, due in considerable part to disenchantment based on the perception that Obama has been weak and inconstant at crucial moments.  My sense was always that the likelihood of an electoral outcome dictated by such an enthusiasm gap was vastly overstated and that once traditional Democratic constitutencies had a chance to see what the Republicans had to offer in a national election, that sufficient enthusiasm would return to assure a pretty robust vote.  (I continue to think that, among other things, the African-American vote is going to be huge again in 2012.) 

As we sit here at the start of 2012, I feel more and more confident that this will be the case, especially if we continue to see the decent (although not adequate) job growth of the last couple of months.  If the next few months continue to see job growth of over 200,000, then I think Obama's hand has been strengthened substantially.  I also think that Republican enthusiasm is going to ebb quite a bit as Romney solidifies his position as the inevitable nominee, which appears to be more and more likely.  He is a hard guy to really like for many people and that is particularly true for the hard right wing base of the GOP despite Romney's persistent pandering to them.  Now don't get me wrong -- Obama hatred is going to make most of the Romney skeptics on the right rally around him.  You watch -- Rush will be his biggest fan come Labor Day. 

Still I don't think the red meat GOP constituency is going to feel that enthusiasm in their bones and at some level will think that they have been deprived of a genuine conservative by the machinations of the party's leaders.  Then you have as well the Mormon issue, which I think remains hard to gauge in terms of its impact on the evangelical right.  And finally, you have the fact that this guy is a rich, out-of-touch, vulture capitalist, something that strikes me as just about the worst occupational background one can have heading into this election.   When his income taxes show (and he will be forced to release them -- just you watch) he has made tens of millions while "unemployed" (and helping others become unemployed) and that he has paid a 15% tax rate on his income, the fallout will be significant with independent voters.  I think this is the sort of thing that Obama can exploit quite effectively.

So all in all, I am starting to feel reasonably good about an Obama - Romney matuchup.  We just need continued job growth and no major blow ups in Europe.

What do you think?  And what else is on your minds?   

Comments

[Joe S]

I have to think as well that the White evangelical base will be somewhat depressed by the fact that the Repbublican nominee is a Country Club Republican who is also a Mormon. Let's face it, this election is not going to be decided if Eric Erickson or Glenn Greenwald is disappointed with Obama or Romney. This election is going to be decided by low information and/or weakly attached voters who relate to a candidate. Those weakly attached voters are not going to be enthused about Romney, but our weakly attached voters (working class voters of color who don't turn out regularly) probably still are going to be enthused about Obama.

[kathy a.]

it will clearly matter to most people who gets elected.

there was a lot of positive enthusiasm for obama last time; and the reality of governing with many republicans in congress valuing obstructionism over accomplishing anything has taken some shine off. i think he's done a pretty good job under the circumstances, but my flavor of enthusiasm this time will be to stop the clown car -- every one of them would be hideous on a lot of issues that i care about.

romney's less hideous than some, but his GOP competitors are doing their best to demonize him and trot out his flaws -- as they endeavor to capture the evangelical and/or libertarian vote. (aren't those strange bedfellows?) going scorched-earth to win the nomination is not the greatest strategy for the party to win the actual election. and then there is romney himself, who as you point out, isn't all that likeable.

[oddjob]

A President Romney would be politically hostage to the GOP's fringe legislators.

[oddjob]

Perry's preparing to hamstring Romney in South Carolina.

"...Even the hardest of hardcore Republicans, like Perry, realize that this is now a populist election and their likeliest nominee is a plutocrat who stumbles every time he tried to relate to regular folks, and has a record at Bain that is a populist opponent's dream...."

[kathy a.]

yes and yes, oddjob. of course, the other candidates ARE the fringe, not just beholden.

the rest of the pack seems dedicated to offending and limiting the rights of and protections for women, people of color, working people, and poor people. and people who don't feel like religion or corporations, or both, ought to be defining public policy.

this is a mean bunch. it's not just about abortion anymore; now they're after contraception. people born poor should have chosen better parents, in a better neighborhood. when they and their parents benefited from the GI bill, free public education, and government jobs, it was "pulling themselves up by their bootstraps"; but when poor kids need food, education, and jobs, that's just welfare queens and their despicable progeny, who shouldn't be rewarded. the government should definitely cut financial breaks to rich people so they can get richer; and lay off those pesky "job-killing" regulations about child labor, wages, job safety, pollution, etc. -- it's better to die on the job than not have one (except when the dying might happen in their own families).

these people piss me the hell off.

[Paula B]

What was that about a silver foot? http://wapo.st/ysduKa

Mitt's fellow clowns may try to bury him, but he's his own worst enemy.

[Davis X. Machina]

A President Romney would be politically hostage to the GOP's fringe legislators.

So would a President Obama. The Iowa Electronic Markets had "Both Houses GOP" at $0.61 last time I looked.

[kathy a.]

DXM -- we really need to focus on congressional battles. which is easy for me to say, because i'm in safe dem congressional territory. but it is our collective business who gets elected in other regions and states.

especially where the crazies are spending lots.

[oddjob]

So would a President Obama.

Not in the same way. A President Obama in a second term would have little reason to "play nice" while a President Romney would have no other choice.

[Davis X. Machina]

...but it is our collective business who gets elected in other regions and states.

My lady wife (and CFO) lets me off the leash for one political cause a cycle. This year, it's the DCCC.

[Linkmeister]

Hawai'i may actually have a real contest for Senate this year, which is both rare and worrisome. Senator Akaka is retiring, and there's going to be a hotly-contested primary on the D side, with the winner going up against a recent former Governor (R) who left office with reasonable popularity numbers.

That's the only seat the Dems need to worry about out here, but it's a biggie. We're not USED to having to worry that a Republican might win a statewide contest for one of our four seats in Congress.

[nancy]

Someone had better let young NH voters know that their infatuation with Paul needs further examination.

[low-tech cyclist]

Speaking of Ron Paul infatuation...

[nancy]

ltc --Oh, perfect. :)

[KN]

Without reading any other comments, with apologies to those commenters, here is my take on things.

I don't think the election really hinges on popular opinion, rather it depends on whether vote fraud, vote surppresion and propaganda can prevail. The indications are that the republicans are going to go all out to defeat Obama for a second term. This would have all kinds of benefits for them. Another Carter Coup so to speak.

On the other hand they have some major liabilities, their candidate list sucks. The reason for that is simple, no one but a delusional narcissist with visions of glory would tackle the problems we face with pathetic pablum and go up against the Cassius Clay of politics.

There is one threat and one threat only, apathy.

[Paula B]

Well put, KN. I'm assuming you mean total apathy, which prevents people from voting at all, as well as partial apathy, which prevents them from making the effort to get the information they need to make good choices but leaves them open to the sway of propaganda.

[oddjob]

ltc ftw! :)

[MR Bill]

KN and ltc, thanks...
xkcd is almost always worth a look.

NH Primary day is about as attractive as feeding time in the alligator pool.

[oddjob]

The maker of Twinkies & Wonder Bread is preparing to file Chapt. 11 bankruptcy.

[kathy a.]

has anyone actually eaten wonder bread (famous in my birth family as the bread you can easily roll into little balls and throw at people) or twinkies in the last few decades?

[nancy]

kathy -- nope, but having a bag of cheetos around is dangerous at my house. someone will eat them. :)

what will the state fairs do for the novelty bit now? no more deep fried twinkies alas. (thought always made me shudder) cue the blame michelle crowd. 'first lady fights obesity and hurts struggling business'.

[Sir Charles]

I used to deal with Continental Baking Co. many years ago when I represented a small Teamster pension plan. the bankruptcy filing is prompted in lage part because of the underfunding of these types of pension plans, which in turn has been caused by the fiasco on Wall Street and the devastation of the trucking industry by resort to independent contractors.

[kathy a.]

nancy, don't get me going on cheetos, doritos, and their kin. one of the bad things about finding out one has high blood pressure is then finding out about salt contents in everything.

thankfully, i don't yet have to track cholesterol or blood sugar. although twinkies would be easy to cross off the list.

[nancy]

kathy -- a carefully monitored diet without salt...sigh. and never mind. :(