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January 23, 2012

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low-tech cyclist

Just goes to show, though, that I'm not the guy to fix any technical problems with this blog. I can't even fix the weird shit that happens to me.

Sir Charles

Good move. I was going to do the same thing.

I was contemplating putting up the "Suicide is Painless" scene from MASH. And note that Gingrich is up by 8 or 9 points in Florida.

I am fascinated by this -- if Gingrich wins Florida, this thing gets into very dangerous territory for Romney, although he will retain huge advantages in money, organization, and endorsements. But he will be bleeding from every orifice and have had the aura of inevitability ripped from him.

I cannot quite figure out where this goes if Gingrich wins Florida. Now there is a chance that Romney will prevail by unleashing an expensive and relentlessly negative attack on Newt -- he is after all a target rich environment. But this too is fraught with danger for Romney. If it doesn't work, he is going to look weak.

If Romney wins Florida he will be tough to stop. But if he doesn't oh the fun we will have.

nancy

Next up, Washington.

low-tech cyclist

I just read former Cogblogger Nicholas Beaudrot's summary of the SC results, and I can barely type this because I'm laughing so hard. Here's a taste that gives the gist of it pretty well:

Newt's campaign was telling voters that a vote for me is a vote to kick some other in the balls. It might be Barack Obama. It might be "the liberal media" or "the elite". It might be African-Americans. But basically, you could vote for Newt, and Newt would find whoever the closest person was who's different from you in some way, and then kick them in the balls.

Nick distills the essence of Newt* pretty accurately, wouldn't you say?

* 'Essence of Newt - sounds like an ingredient for a witches' brew, doesn't it? I suddenly have visions of Callista stirring a kettle, going, "double, double, toil and trouble." I honestly can't say what she does with Newt's essence, though. If it's anything too exotic, I don't want to know about it.

Speaking of Callista, she's 45 years old, according to Wikipedia. Is it just me, or rather than looking 45, doesn't she look more like a 65 year old woman trying to look 45?

low-tech cyclist

nancy - Sen. Haugen's remarks, at your link, are a thing of beauty.

"For some people, this is a simple issue. I envy them. It has not been simple or easy for me.

"To some degree, this is generational. Years ago I took exception to my parents' beliefs on certain social issues, and today my children take exception to some of mine. Times change, even if it makes us uncomfortable. I think we should all be uncomfortable sometime. None of us knows everything, and it's important to have our beliefs questioned. Only one being in this world is omniscient, and it's not me.

"I have very strong Christian beliefs, and personally I have always said when I accepted the Lord, I became more tolerant of others. I stopped judging people and try to live by the Golden Rule. This is part of my decision. I do not believe it is my role to judge others, regardless of my personal beliefs. It's not always easy to do that. For me personally, I have always believed in traditional marriage between a man and a woman. That is what I believe, to this day.

"But this issue isn't about just what I believe. It's about respecting others, including people who may believe differently than I. It's about whether everyone has the same opportunities for love and companionship and family and security that I have enjoyed.
"For as long as I have been alive, living in my country has been about having the freedom to live according to our own personal and religious beliefs, and having people respect that freedom.

"Not everyone will agree with my position. I understand and respect that. I also trust that people will remember that we need to respect each other's beliefs. All of us enjoy the benefits of being Americans, but none of us holds a monopoly on what it means to be an American.

I'll have to chip in a few shekels towards her next campaign. We need more people like that in government.

Sir Charles

nancy,

Very excited to hear about Washington State. I remain nervous based on Maryland's experience last year, but I think it will happen.

And then Maryland will try again -- and I think succeed.

And then New Jersey, which will put Chris Christie in a difficult position.

What do you think about Oregon? Any chance there?

l-t c,

Nice summary by Nick -- that describes a pretty significant chunk of the Republican vote at this point.

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

One important fact that everyone is overlooking is that Florida has early voting. I still expect Romney to lose -- and that Santorum will do better than expected, but it may not be as bad because of a possible early lead before people got a chance to get a good close-up of Milt the Unlovable.

Btw, what do people think of early voting? I am aware of the theoretical arguments for it, but I wonder if it is like the Referendum that was one of the 'great Progressive strides towards Democracy' when i was going up. I don't think Californians would agree. (Of course, prohibition was also a Progressive movement that was a mistake, though Recall seems to be a tricky, but generally beneficial idea.)

I've always doubted whether a person should vote before he has all the information possible, right up to the last day, but places like Oregon seem to doubt this. Again, what think you?

kathy a.

i like the options of early voting and vote-by-mail, because those make it easier for busy people to vote. of course, i also like voters to be informed. the two aren't mutually exclusive.

by "referendum," i assume you mean all those initiatives that wind up on california ballots, frequently resulting in bad law. we have a legislature to deal with writing laws, and they are generally better equipped than ordinary citizens to figure out the problems, research conflicts with existing laws, think of how that will play out in the long term.

this year, i will be breaking my general rule against voting yes on initiatives -- to vote down some bad laws previously enacted by initiative.

Eric Wilde

I usually vote early. Seriously, with a little bit of energy you can look into whatever or whomever is up for a vote and make a decision without the media circus. So I feel well informed on the items for which I vote and vote early.

Linkmeister

From my observations from a safe distance away from California (I've lived there off-and-on, though) the initial concept of referenda has been completely subverted by moneyed interests. In part it's just that the state is so big the only way to get votes is to advertise, and the tv markets are costly. Look at Prop 8, where it had grass roots support but was swamped by out-of-state money from Utah and the Mormon church.

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

Actually, kathy, they are mutually exclusive in the sense I meant -- but I expressed myself extremely poorly (Lousy day physically if I need an excuse). What I was trying to say was that people who vote early can't be informed or influenced by events that take place between when they mail their ballot and election day. And they can be important.

(For example, Fla. primary early voters were hearing nothing but "Romney is inevitable.' They didn't hear about SC, or see tonight's debate -- if anything there was important. They miss the message of an under-funded or slowly-funded candidate who saves his ads for the last week. Etc.)

And yes, Eric, I have no doubt that you -- and most of the people here -- have our minds made up long before election day -- but we also spend more time thinking (and writing) about politics every day than the average person does in two weeks, that many don't do in two months.

nancy

Jim -- Mostly I hate early voting for just the reasons you've mentioned, although I understand the impulse for 'ease' for some, maybe many. Early voting is for the convenience of the county auditor here.The communal citizenship exercise diminishes unfortunately. Of course it was a Dem proposal and plan without thought to the unintended consequences. Where have we seen that before?

I used to report to my local polling place [the elementary school a block away], chat with my neighbors, sign in with Mrs. McGreavey and leave with an 'I voted' sticker. Last election, early mail-in only, no more polling place, my vote was challenged, after 30-some years of not missing an election, because the auditor's office questioned the authenticity of my signature.

I've rarely been so affronted by bureaucratic process. In order to have my vote validated, I had to jump through numerous hoops to provide them with a 'new' signature after being chastised that my handwriting had 'changed'. Gee, after thirty years -- ya think?

I think everyone, ideally, should be voting on the same day with all of the information available at the time. WA/Oregon are now states of essentially absentee ballot voters which surely alters results in some races, at some times. I do know that Oregon voters have embraced the idea, BUT, they all have to make sure, as I understand it, that their vote arrives by voting day. We in WA do not. Our votes dribble in for days. Thus, the vote count lasts sometimes for weeks. Not good. In Oregon, the vote count is turned around in 24 hours I believe.

big bad wolf

i like early voting, at least the way it is done in texas. we have a two or three week period closing the friday before the election, in which you can go to a polling place and vote. i like that one still has to go to a polling place, and i like that spreading it out makes it easier for people with busy or inflexible schedules to vote. keeping it at polling places, i think, emphasizing the civic, communal nature of the election that nancy correctly reminds us is important. i'm against mail-in or electronic voting for that reason. i am not much worried about late breaking events. such events both are relatively and absolutely few, and the events would have to be hugely significant to tip a vote in a well defined contest, which, as eric says, most now are if one cares enough to go look, and i suspect most early voters do. they are the kinds of people who start talking about the next election before this one's over. i call it thinking ahead, but lots of folks think we're a bit weird.

MR Bill

Early voter here. And seriously, in these majority R counties, you get treated...not so well at the polls sometimes if you ask for the D ballot in the primaries. In some of these communities, the Rs have been othering the Ds badly. It's not so much a friendly civic ritual as going to a place where you are treated as a stranger, and not necessarily a welcome one. They took way too long faffing over my signature and matching it to my name last time. Several folks, all inmigrants to the area, and two were black, complained to the Elections Board and wrote the local paper to complain of being treated with suspicion
And again, you don't need to dig too far into the psychology of it: they identify R as being part of 'our team': local, native (though I grew up two counties away, and have lived in this one for over 30),Christian (Baptist), Conservative, white (ok, I got that one), straight...
I seem to remember that Obama had a significantly larger proportion of the early votes in this county than McCain. And now Georgia has reigned in early voting, now limiting it to two weeks before the election. There is a bill before the Ga Legislature (motto: "No Person or Property is safe while we're in session") to take it down to a week before the election,

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

I wish I could agree with you, bbw, that 'early voters are informed voters' but I'm not so sure. I would still have qualms even if I believed it -- I'm a bit of a Romantic Idealist when it comes to voting, I consider it such a fortunate privilege that whatever minor inconvenience it requires is worth it -- admittedly I've been a city-dweller since I first became eligible, and the polling place has always been an easy walk, but I can at least hope I'd take whatever trouble was needed.

But there are still other problems. Yes, you know who signed the ballot, but not who filled it in. I can imagine several scenarios -- one even pleasant -- where a voter would let someone else cast her vote for her. The pleasant one would involve having a teenage child who you know is following politics the way you are, and feels about it the way you do. I can see giving the child the right to fill in your ballot, even if you knew the two of you disagreed on some minor offices, just to give the kid the chance to 'know how it feels to vote.' (And I love the -- I believe -- recent innovation of allowing parents to take their children into the booth with them, where, I guess, the same thing could happen.)

But the other scenarios are less benign. A spouse demanding to see the other spouse's ballot before it got mailed, an employer subtly or blatantly pressuring employees to allow someone at the office to supply filled in ballots.

In fact, as long as Citizen's United remains a precedent, I can imagine using it in outlining a brief arguing that laws against vote-buying were unconstitutional, one that the current court, at least, should find convincing.

(As for electronic voting -- *shudder*. It should be against the law for any locality to introduce any form of electronic voting unless they first set it up and hired three of the best hackers in the country -- legal or illegal -- and challenged them to 'beat the system.' Only if they failed would it be legal to implement it.)

oddjob

nancy - Sen. Haugen's remarks, at your link, are a thing of beauty.

Wow.....

oddjob

I've never lived in a state where early voting was an option (unless you were voting in absentia), but I think if I did live in such a state I'd probably be an early voter more often than not.

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

Maybe I shouldn't be talking on this, because I have been extremely fortunate. This'll be the 24th national election I've voted in, not counting primaries, specials, and odd-year locals, most but not all of which I've voted in. And I've never had the slightest problem at the polls, never been challenged, quetioned, or even been looked askance at. Partially this is because I've been a Democrat in Democratic cities -- nationally, even when we've chosen Repiblican or independent mayors -- partially it's been pure dumb luck.

MR Bill shows us not everyone is that lucky. Would I feel differently if voting had been a hassle to fight through? I hope not, but how can I know?

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

Oh, and nancy, the only thing I disagree with you on is your preference for the Oregon system. I'd much rather give the voter the extra time -- see how I started this -- and let the count be slower.

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

One thing about Democrats and Progressives -- we get the better musicians and song writers. Republicans get stuck with this. [Warning: Do not take within fifteen minutes of eating.]

Oh, and for those of you who are ground-huggers, you might want to keep flapolitics.com in your favorites. It is a daily discussion of and links to every story on Fla politics in local and national sources, seemingly from a moderate Democratic point of view. Of course it is crowded now, becauyse of the primary, but enough other material is covered to insure my checking back regularly after next Tuesday. (They are having -- among other horrors -- a prison privatization push.)

One of the links -- to steven schale's blog -- gives a great statistical breakdown of how early voting, which in Fla has to be done at the polls, not by mail, and Romney's early lead will affect Newt's necessary 'victory scenario.'

It's surprising. Given the best case scenario for Romney -- low turnout, him having a 25% lead in the votes already cast, Newt still needs to win by only 5.7% of the remaining voters to win. But that's a best case. Rasmussen gives him an 11% lead, PPP only gives him a 3% lead -- Schale thinks he is doing better than either think. Given that, and a turnout halfway between 2008 and 2010, Gingrich only needs to win by 1.8% (Rasmussen) or 0.3% (PPP) to take the state from him. (No, I didn't check the math.)

Given those numbers, I wonder who will be the anti-Newt once Romney is seen as a definite loser. I don't think the Knight of Knastiness can win it either, but, quoting Schale, "In other words, hang on, it is going to be quite a Florida ride."

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

I know, I know, but just caught this gem that no one on the blimp seems to have heard -- or been told about if they were too busy talking to listen. From The Tampa Bay TIMES:

Gingrich said he would work aggressively to overthrow the Raul Castro regime, including using covert operations. "A Gingrich presidency will not tolerate four more years," he said.

Who, if anyone, was the last candidate who stated he would work to overthrow a specific regime we were not at war with, and which had not attacked us? Y'd'a thunked it might have gotten a minor subhead or two somewhere.

low-tech cyclist

Jim - the Tampa Bay Times? WTF happened to the Tampa Trib?

The answer to your question would be President Obama, with the country being Libya. OK, he wasn't technically a candidate at the time, but still.

The U.S. has a long and all-too-colorful history of working to overthrow regimes that haven't attacked us; it was practically a staple of our Cold War foreign policy. As long as Newt's not contemplating sending ground troops in, I don't think there's a natural comparison to GWB.

However, this idea shows what a total crackpot Newt is. All we have to do to get rid of Raul Castro is wait: he's 80 years old (and Fidel is 85). The best thing we could do for Cuba in both the short and medium term is to get rid of our sanctions; they impoverish the people of Cuba in general, without having any effect on the regime. A more affluent Cuba would be in better shape to deal with whatever changes happen once Fidel and Raul leave this world.

And it would be incredibly presumptuous of us to play a big role in their transition. We haven't given a good goddamn about their best interests; they've just been a political football for the past 50 years. Whatever sense our sanctions may have made during the Cold War, they've made no sense at all since the fall of 1989 - they've just been an added punishment to an already oppressed people. It's a bit late for pretending we give a shit about the Cubans as people.

For Gingrich, they're just another abstract cause, suitable for posturing. But as President, he might well go beyond posturing, and that would be dangerous for Cuba.

oddjob

For Gingrich, they're just another abstract cause, suitable for posturing


And pandering to conservative Republican Floridian Cubanos, of course.

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

newsflash

Steve Benen leaving Washington Monthly, effective tomorrow

Will be a producer on the Rachel Maddow Show; successor not announced


oddjob

bummer

oddjob

And then New Jersey, which will put Chris Christie in a difficult position.

Apparently Christie has just nominated an openly gay (& married for 30 years) African American to the New Jersey Supreme Court.

...Christie still opposes marriage rights for gays, but has left the door open if the legislature moves forward, as it wants to do. But when you are treating a potential member of the state supreme court as a second-class citizen, in the end, the position becomes untenable.

Surely Christie knows that. Perry might not, but Christie must.

low-tech cyclist

Benen will be a tough act to follow - he maintained a very high quality of posting while cranking out what seemed like a dozen or so posts each day.

And they were rarely just a paragraph or two: if he didn't have anything substantive to say, he didn't say it.

Eric Wilde

I don't understand the comment about the civic value to requiring people go to a place to vote. It makes no sense to me and I see no value in it. What am I missing?

The times I have gone to the voting booth in person were rather mechanical, sterile events where I signed a paper, showed my driver's license, pushed some buttons and left with a sticker. If I want to chat with my neighbor I'll do it at a more convenient time than a Tuesday during business hours.

Sir Charles

oddjob,

I think Christie will be hard-pressed to come up with a persuasive rationale for vetoing such legislation if it ever went through. But signing it would be the end of his career in Republican electoral politics.

l-t c,

Benen was really excellent. I thought Drum was good but that Benen was actually better.

That's a nice job for him to get. Good for him.

Sir Charles

oddjob,

Christie was really good in handling the criticisms when he appointed a Muslim to the bench. He got quite pissed at those who questioned the appointment and did so in no uncertain terms.

He's not my favorite guy by any means, but sometimes his plain speaking can be a virtue.

Sir Charles

Eric,

I think there is something nice about the ritual of gathering to vote.

But having said that, I think there is much more to be said for allowing people the ability to cast their ballot. Especially people who have rigid schedules, long commutes, or who travel a lot.

I voted early in 2008 so that I could spend the day in Petersburg Virginia monitoring the polls. And I actually lined up to vote on a Saturday with a whole bunch of people, so I didn't even miss out on the civic component of the exercise.

MR Bill

First Hilzoy and now Benen. I got to 'Political Animal' following Kevin Drum there. Drum is usually ok (no, not on early support for Iraq war), but not as good writer/reporter. Drum seemes still in his perch at Mother Jones to seek a certain ironic distance. Benen and Hilzoy always have a certain passion (now perhaps blunted a bit by the sheer weight of the Right and Conservative movement's shit avalanche mendacity...),informed by good reporting.

"Raw Story" has the story of some Right wing GA judge who's ordered President Obama to show up in court in a birther's suit to remove him from the GA ballot. I ain't even gonna link to it. The Supremes have ruled on this thing twice, I think, and the usual order of things would seem to suggest the Pres not show, and kick it up the appeals ladder for them to crush, yet again.
Ok ok, here's a link: http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/judges-order-in-birther-1313941.html

And the Daily Show ran the Ellijay piece, finding Mitt's Most Fervant Supporter...I'm trying to get some info on the fellow. Ellijay didn't look like Squidbillies, you just had 4-5 Good Ol' Boys (one of them Bob McCutchen, trying to get some info on him)..It's pretty funny, begins around the 13 min mark, before the Katherine Sibelius interview.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/mon-january-23-2012-kathleen-sebelius

And just a thought: Newt won SC by throwing out the political equivalent of Wrestling Trash Talk.

oddjob

But signing it would be the end of his career in Republican electoral politics.

Well, if he intended to seek the Oval Office, yes, but I don't think it would be if he was to run for US Senator from New Jersey.

Frankly, if he were to run for president I can't see how he'd win. I think on the national stage his only strength would be his ability to plainly offer appropriate trash talk when campaigning against a Democratic candidate. I don't think any northeastern Republican, and most certainly not one from New Jersey where Republican moderates still have sway, has a realistic shot at president as long as the GOP's national makeup remains as it is now. At the very earliest it isn't going to be for at least a decade or two before a Christ Christie has any realistic shot at the White House.

Yes, signing a gay marriage bill would be suicidal, but don't you think nominating a gay black man for state supreme court justice already is as well?

oddjob

And just a thought: Newt won SC by throwing out the political equivalent of Wrestling Trash Talk.

That's his only real political talent, and it's the only one he's every really had. Sure he has an excellent memory and all, but in terms of sheer political ability what does he bring other than his ability to rouse the conservative id?

nancy

One thing about Democrats and Progressives -- we get the better musicians and song writers. Republicans get stuck with this.

Prup. omg. that is tears running down face, now needing kleenex, scared my kitty from the room, funny.

this must be a spoof. [extra special -- dude on harley shot]. subtitles!

kathy a.

oh, dear lordy, MR Bill. orly taitz rears her head again. it is absolutely astonishing that any judge, anywhere, would order the president to appear on this issue. there is no issue. i expect it is going up the ladder at this very moment.

newt IS the very model of wrestling trash talk! (as i understand it.)

at least jesse ventura had the excuse of a previous professional wrestling career. and he was nowhere near as mean as newt -- if i recall, he tended toward socially liberal.

MR Bill

Damn you Prup, the Walker tongue bath vid has given me indigestion...I laughed, and then came to think the creator meant it.


oddjob

if i recall, he tended toward socially liberal

When Jesse heard people arguing that homosexuality was a choice he liked to ask those people when they chose to be straight.

:)

kathy a.

see, there was a reason i kinda liked jesse. ;)

i think newt should debate him.

Eric Wilde

I think there is something nice about the ritual of gathering to vote.

Hmmm. I still don't get it. Perhaps I just never experienced the ritual. To me it was always a very cut and dry affair, even when waiting in line. If there were a strong aspect of socializing with my neighbors then your sentiment would make more sense.

It also doesn't help that my polling place is a baptist church. Being inside one of those things brings back awful memories of childhood. So I'm bristly myself when there.

Eric Wilde

Prup, I am scarred. That music! Oh, my!

nancy

Eric -- scarred or scared? :)

And Prup. Decency would have demanded an earworm alert. Also too.

kathy a.

i like the ritual of voting, too. it is kind of warm and fuzzy in my neighborhood, in the sense that everybody feels good about having a say. i took the kids along when they were growing up, because i wanted them to know that voting was important; they are grown now, and both show up for elections.

oddjob

I usually end up voting when there isn't a line and like Eric, for me it's a utilitarian experience with little ritual to it.

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

My point was more against 'voting by mail' rather than merely allowing people to show up a couple of days early, at their own convenience. That's okay, though I'd really pefer a compromise, either limiting the 'early voting' to the previous weekend or actually open the polls on Friday and leave them open -- even 24/7 if security could be maintained -- straight through the end of the voting, which could be Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. (Btw, this is usually the odd fact I'd throw in here, but I don't know it. Why Tuesday? Why did voting become fixed on that day?)

I just don't like the longer gap between the time you vote and the end of the election. This year's primaries show how momentum can change. After all, Nate Silver, who wound up giving Newt an 87% chance in SC, had been calling it 91% for Romney the previous week. And as *ahem* expected, Romney is currently engaged in blowing Florida, dropping 13 points in a week and currently even in the polls, but trailing by six with people who decided after the debate. The 'early voters' saw none of this.

Sir Charles

Jim,

I see Nate has revised Newt down to a 65% likelihood of victory. He is going to get pounded by negative ads from the Mittster between now and next Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if it works. I think Romney is correct to go all out, because if he loses here his life just got very complicated.

oddjob,

Unbelievable.

oddjob

There also is only one debate between the candidates in February, so Newt won't be able to rely on debate performances to reinforce his ratings.

nancy

Fidel weighs in on the field.

"The selection of a Republican candidate for the presidency of this globalized and expansive empire is — and I mean this seriously — the greatest competition of idiocy and ignorance that has ever been," said the retired Cuban leader, who has dueled with 11 U.S. administrations since his 1959 revolution.

Prup (aka Jim Benton)

Newsflash:

Ed Kilgore to replace Steve Benen at Washington Monthly

Good choice?

Your picks?

(Mine, Edroso as 'play by play' with Desert Beacon taking Hilzoy's old position as 'color commentator.')

nancy

Well, well. The SEC is taking a closer look at the Keystone job numbers claims. The company can lie to the public but not to its investors. Quel concept.

Paula B

NC gov and long-time Democrat Congressional rep will not seek re-election.
http://nyti.ms/xQMePR

Sir Charles

Jim,

I had beers with Roy last night. He is a truly good guy. And possibly the finest writer on the internet.

I think Kilgore will be fine although not as good as Benen, who was a star in my mind.

Paula,

They had a story on npr tonight that seemed to suggest that the governor not running in NC would actually be good for Obama. Evidently she is not too popular.

The congressman got nailed by redistricting -- part of the disaster of 2010 that I think Jim has been warning us about. The Dems are probably going to lose out on at least ten to twenty seats due to losing control over redistricting in so many states.

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