Pivot on This Muthafu#ka (and Open Thread)

 

"The Senator" - Stephen Malkmus

I can never really decide if business jargon or political jargon is more annoying.  In a just world both would be banished and their purveyors devoured by wild dogs in the public square.  My hated DC word of the moment -- replacing "brand," a word whose use should subject the speaker to actual branding -- is "pivot," a word whose definition seems to be "we will unceremoniously flee from the debacle we've created and failed to solve, but of which we have grown tired, to launch a much heralded but inevitably ineffectual campaign against a new problem that we've created but really have no desire to actually do something about -- other than create the impression that we are doing something about it." 

And thus, the much expected, but nonetheless groan-inducing "pivot on jobs" that Greg Sargent wrote about yesterday.    Let's be clear -- there will be no "pivot" on jobs.  There will be a public relations campaign by both parties (and I don't mean to engage in equivalence rhetoric, but here it is likely to be the case) about jobs, but no actual action taken on jobs.  That is because creating jobs right now will require government spending, a course of action precluded by yesterday's debt deal (oh, and by the election of Republican majority in the House last fall).  Now one could, I suppose, make the case for a jobs programs that would entail some additional spending, but I don't really see how President Obama could really push for it at this point.  (It would be DOA anyway, but in a better context at least politically useful.)  Anyway, expect to see talk on this score -- I guess the Republicans will be pushing still more tax cuts and the elimination of the EPA as their jobs program -- and nothing of substance.  (Just to be clear, Sargent himself sees the absurdity in this turn of events and has no expectations of effective action.)

As for the debt deal itself, I tend to think it will have a minor negative effect on Obama -- I don't share Sullivan's optimism about it, but I think this reader's reaction is probably overstated, but touches on themes that we have all discussed here recently regarding the first time voters of 2008 and their continuing loyalty/enthusiasm.  And this reaction strikes me as total overreach.    But reminds me, now all eyes should turn to Wisconsin to see what we can accomplish next week.  It could be just the boost to morale that we all desperately need.

What else is up? 

Comments

[Davis X. Machina]

I'm not convinced fiscal stimulus still isn't possible, it just requires convincing Angela Merkel to invade Poland.

Sure, it's a heavy lift...

[oddjob]

LOL!

Sob.........

[Sir Charles]

DXM,

You're killing me.

If only Al Qaeda had several mechanized divisions, there would be hope yet for the economy.

I believe that our German firends have already found lebensraum by locating factories in South Carolina and Alabama -- you know, the new third world.

[Paula B]

Did anybody read the NYT story I left a link for last night (re: Tea Party poll)? IT raises some questions: why did the NYT wait to run it? Did the GOP know about this poll? If they did, why didn't they listen to it? If not, why not?

[Sir Charles]

Paula,

I did read it.

I think that right wingers tend to believe their own bullshit and really think that they have far greater numbers than they likely do. And, unlike us, they tend to believe that they can overcome obstacles through sheer imposition of will. (To date one can understand why they feel that way.)

[Morzer]

Is "pivot" the new "spinning in place"? Discuss, using historical examples to support your case.

[Davis X. Machina]

Tea party absolute numbers don't really matter that much.

I know the threat of a tea party primary is largely a chimera, and you know the threat of a tea party primary is largely a chimera, but Congress is a very small place. Smaller than your high school, probably, if you count just members. Smaller than your town or city, even if you count all the staffers, etc.

The GOPeople actually going up those famous stairs see in their minds' eyes the heads of Bob Bennett (20-year career in the Senate from Utah) and Mike Castle (20-year career in the House from Delaware, on top of two terms as governor) on pikes every day.

This is a pretty risk-adverse group (politicians) drawn largely from another risk-adverse group (lawyers).

On top of that, they're always fighting the last war anyways.

[MR Bill]

Urg.
I've mostly kept my head down: my time at Doug and Jamie's cabin (named "Jane's Addiction", yes, after the band, and it was inherited from their friend Jane) with much less news and internet has been good for me. I hadn't looked at a Friedman or Will column, and have been grateful to those who are willing to do so and report the atrocities.
You got me to read the Mustache of Understanding...I think I'm going back to keeping Friedman mediated heavily.
And the awful and completely optional Debt Crisis reveals the vast nihilism of the Right and a lot of it sympathizers: there is a longing for, if not the Apocalypse, then some final clarifying event, the change we cannot escape. Most imagine it will afflict the guilty, and God's or Galt's Own will come into their kingdom. The rest will do whatever the Surplus Population does...It would seem that it is worth risking crashing the economy to prove a point about limiting government. Unfortunately for the poorly informed and the rest of us, they would limit precisely the parts we need the most.
My hope is that this dreadful (and poorly scripted) sideshow is just a diversion, and some other events are creeping up on us, up some badly reported side passage of history, that will force realistic action. I remember we were mired in the horror of the Gulf Oil spill last summer, and we are an earthquake or hurricane away from needing massive government spending.

Rehearsals have started, blocking (determining the motions and physical positions of the actors) is creeping along. It's boring and a pain and totally necessary.
And Timmy and I had a good time at the Possum Festival.
It's an annual private party held on a large family property on Devil's Den Rd. (Srsly. google "devil's den Rd Blue Ridge GA" and there is a mention of the 4th Annual Possum Festival..) A friend's band has played it (and gotten paid!) every year, and it is a mellow, pleasant time, camping our near a big barn and some sheds in hayfields surrounded by the hills; they used to moonshine there. Now these they crown a Possum Queen, bring a big feed and barbecue a pig.
And in years past, they've dropped a possum, in a cage. (It was a dead flattened, and dessicated roadkill possum last year.)
This year they decided to, instead, Set a Possum Free, to fireworks and musical accompaniment. One of the organizers had live trapped a possum a few days before, and had been feeding it in a cage.
Now, the Virginia Opossum is a raffish creature, toothy, beadyeyed, and unphotogenic. Amado says "even the babies aren't cute"; they have a viscous temper, smell bad and the 'playing possum' trick aside, are the scavengers they look to be. The poor thing in the cage was hunkered down: hissing, and would not leave the cage while the roman candles, etc were going, so the MC sort of shook 'Pete' out of the cage. He hit the ground and then ran around the crowd and then into the bushes after a bit.
The band struck back up (a cover of J. Beck's "Freeway Jam") and not many were paying attention while Pete came back and crawled back into the cage.
Not sure if this is a parable.
I suspect the Teaparty voter does not want the state of nature any more than ol' Pete did.

[Joe S]

MR. Bill, since you've been back from vacation, is perusing politics again your "Ritual De Lo Habitual" ?

I hate opossums too. When I used to run at night in a rural area, I'd ocassionally almost run over one of them to the great consternation of myself and the animal.

[kathy a.]

i don't think the TP reps care what their constituents think about particular issues; they care that they got elected, and think they have a mandate. outside the small circle of TP diehards who have one form of power or another, TP identification is kind of a self-select, largely disorganized thing -- people who feel disaffected, who are scared by obama, who may not understand the political process well, who "want to be heard" even if they aren't really clear on policy specifics and how they'd play out.

[MR Bill]

Q Why did the chicken cross the road?
A To show the possum it could be done.

Yeah, Joe, but I'm trying to get out of the MSM orbit more.
I'm watching al-Jazerra online more, my cable has added MSNBC, and trying to not read the same blogs over and over. Craig Murray, the UK human rights activist and former ambassador has a good blog.

I don't hate possums, but I hate them in a bag of catfood, or attacking small dogs or hanging (as I once noticed) on a branch over the hot tub we were using.
Fun fact: possums live short lives. No 3 year old possum has been found in the wild, and only a few have made 4 years in captivity.

[MR Bill]

Kathy, Micheal Lind at Salon has a good piece on the Southern-ness of the Tea Party.

Takeaway, the Tea Party is, in the South, isomorphic with the extreme right ideologically. Or, as the author says : "The goal, the methods and the passion of the Tea Party in the House are all characteristic of the radical Southern right."

[Davis X. Machina]

The Southern Captivity of the GOP coming by just on schedule. Followed by The Emerging Democratic Majority.

You can set your watch by political science. It's accurate to the minute, but fifteen years fast.

[Joe S]

Let's hope so. I'm still concerned about the working class Whites of the Midwest who are distinctly nonplussed by the Democrats at the moment. White Southerners just don't have the clout to run things on their own anymore. They need conservatives to win in places like Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

[Morzer]

Davis X. Machina, one particularly succulent quote:

"The bipartisan political consultant Dick Morris maintains that the single most destructive interest group on the right is the NRA."

Ah, the folly of one's youth, eh?

[kathy a.]

oh, interesting point about the southernness of the TP, oddjob. i want to point out that south carolina's delegation to the TP caucus might be slightly smaller than california's, but represents a hugely greater proportion of SC's representatives overall.

nice background piece, DXM. hope the democratic turnaround runs faster than your prediction, though.

joe, i think that working class people are in a world of hurt everywhere. people have commented here before that democrats need to get on the ball about advocating more strongly for working people and their families, and to tie the wild TP ideas to concrete information about how those policies would hurt ordinary families.

my son works in a warehouse, and he is pretty upset with everyone. one of the things he is most upset about is his impression that poor people, the most politically weak, have been left out of the discussion altogether. (this is not entirely true; a number of protections for elders and poor people were woven into the final debt ceiling bill, which should be counted as a victory.)

[kathy a.]

meanwhile, back in wisconsin -- recall elections are one week away. anti-recall forces are sending absentee ballot applications to democrats, and suggesting they be returned by august 11, which is after the election. here's the scoop, from the democratic legislative campaign committee, which focuses on state campiagns.

[oddjob]

oh, interesting point about the southernness of the TP, oddjob.

Sorry, I'm not the only one around here who links to stuff.

;)

[kathy a.]

omg, apologies, MRBill! this is what happens with distracted blog-reading. i also forgot to congratulate you on the hard work of rehearsals, and the best possum story of the day. :)

[nancy]

This analysis by Freddie deBoer of where we are now seems right to me, particularly as to what it means for reelection in 2012:

Making Obama supporters zeal for this deal most inexplicable is the fact that this deal hurts his chances in 2012. There is a vast literature demonstrating that American presidential elections are determined primarily by economics. People vote for incumbent parties when the economy is doing well and against them when the economy is doing poorly. This bill does nothing to help the 14 million unemployed Americans. It does nothing to address the double dip recession we appear to be marching towards. And, again, in the eyes of many very smart people, it actually hurts. If this deal, which will slash thousands of jobs from the federal rolls and do nothing to stimulate the private economy, sends unemployment back to double digits, Obama is a one term president. (And lest anyone try to turn that into some grand narrative about Obama bravely doing the right thing and sacrificing his political future for the good of the country, I'll remind you that there are always other options. If you have no other options in a scenario so fluid and complex, it is a result of incompetence, not principle.)

Morzer, perhaps the above is what you meant by 'spinning in place' ↔ 'pivot'.

[nancy]

Isn't it time we found a more appropriate name for the TP? They've been allowed to appropriate and disgracefully use a proud and iconic event in American history. The press let them do it. It handed them standing and lobbed such off to all of us eating our Cheerios at the kitchen table.

Any suggestions? I mean we let them dispense with 'Teabaggers' once the UrD confounded them---even as the Minnie Pearl-style hats decorated with teabags were a TP favorite and boastful image in numerous we're-so-angry photo ops. ;-) I think it's our turn now. teabaggers tea party .

[Sir Charles]

MR Bill,

Welcome back.

Morzer,

The bipartisan Dick Morris. OMFG.

When people start getting all wistful about what Hillary would have done, just take a moment and think Dick Morris and Mark Penn. That should cure anyone of that particular bit of nostalgia.

Well, that NAFTA, Glass-Steagall repeal, welfare reform, "the era of big government is over" and school fucking uniforms. And the height of government ambition -- 100,000 cops on the street.

kathy,

We really all should be focused on Wisconsin. I think it is huge and could be the shot in the arm we need.

Joe,

Along those lines, I think the best thing that has ever happened to the Dems among white working class mid-westerners is Scott Walker and John Kasich. I think it has been something of a wake up call about what these guys are really all about.

I should also add that I reject the notion of the tea baggers as being a new phenomenon. They've been around forever -- they have a new name, some Koch money, and an ever credulous media. The nuttiness is not new.

[beckya57]

Sir C, I too have been thinking about Mark Penn and Dick Morris. Their utterly idiotic takes on how to win elections had a lot to do with my supporting Obama over Hillary in the primaries. Consequently, I am now seething with rage, as I've been reading story after story about how the Obama team has been making...exactly the same kinds of analyses we've come to loath from the Mark Penns of the world. Item: The Obama team is convinced that the Dems lost in 2010 because "independents" defected, and that was why they wanted the Grand Bargain, because that's what "independents" want. This totally ignores the reality that true "independents" are actually extremely rare, the vast majority of them vote consistently with one party or the other, and the true lesson of 2010 is that the GOP turned out and the Dem one didn't. Item: The Obama team was convinced that the Republicans would eventually come to "recognize reality" and agree for the need for revenue increases. This of course totally ignores the reams of evidence that no-revenue-increases is all the modern GOP really cares about. Item: The Obama team was convinced that the GOP could be reasoned with and wanted to make a deal with them. Etc., etc., etc. I've believed up until the last few days that the Obama team was playing some kind of game, since I couldn't believe that such smart people could actually be this incredibly obtuse. I'm now beginning to think that the Hillary people were right on one point: that Obama and his people are too naive about the modern GOP to be able to deal with them effectively. I feel like a complete fool myself for not seeing this until now.

[beckya57]

That should be "and the true lesson of 2010 is that the GOP base turned out and the Dem one didn't."

Hard to express oneself coherently when one is as mad as I am right now.

[big bad wolf]

i just don' want to see "pivot" dragged through the mud. i showed the fourth graders how to pivot a couple of weeks ago to get themselves free to pass or shoot. a pivot is empowering and seeks to help the teams. let's not make it mean spin.

[Sir Charles]

Becky,

I totally understand.

We've still got to keep fighting the good fight.

I just wish the Administration would understand how much it is hampering its own dreams of re-election by essentially turning the economy over to the forces of austerity and the confidence fairy.

bbw,

As a guy who was a bit of an overachiever in the low post as a youth, I share your distaste for this misapropriation of a great American word.

[Beckya57a]

No disagreement here Sir C. I just hope Obama and his people have finally figured out what's going on here. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say the future of the country may depend on it.

[big bad wolf]

a pivot is a chosen move, not an involuntary one . my favorite line about hurt is the possibly apocryphal one that segovia asked who the other guy was.

[nancy]

How a number of young people are feeling these days songwise . Helplessness Blues. Fleetfoxes--you'll probably either appreciate their sound or dislike and dismiss their harmonies. I'm with them entirely. The lyrics are painful, but earnestly hopeful.

[janinsanfran]

About Wisconsin -- again some thoughts from the 90s. In 1996 I was working to increase turnout among the population Bill Clinton "threw under the bus" when he acquiesced (participated in) a Republican welfare "reform" that gashed the safety net for poor women with kids. Didn't phase 'em. If they could be persuaded to vote at all, they dutifully trotted off to the polls to vote for Bill, despite betrayal.

At that level, you know all the pols hate you, but you go with the ones who seem even marginally more approachable. Tuesday's Wisconsin elections may show whether solid midwesterners are yet equally inured to doing what has to be done to get the lesser evil.

[MR Bill]

I could use some good news, and hoping for it from the Cheesehead State..

[oddjob]

This is one of the headlines above the fold on the front page of today's Boston Globe:

Huge cuts could imperil recovery, economists say

[nancy]

High-school students are protesting teacher lay-offs and collective-bargaining curbs in Idaho. Strikes me as very encouraging--Boise is square into Mormon country. Wisconsin it's not.

[kathy a.]

oddjob -- stories like that are cropping up all over, on accounta they're true. thanks a lot, hostage-takers!

nancy -- great news! go, students!

[oddjob]

Eric Cantor reminds us that the GOP's healthcare and senior care plans are, "Unless you're rich, don't get sick and don't get old; but if you do get sick or old, die quickly."

(Yes, Grayson's language was inflammatory, but it also happened to be the truth.)

[nancy]

re Oddjob's link: What is the matter with Eric Cantor? A privileged 'patriot' in very expensive haberdashery seems to think he knows something about mapping the future for the country [read middle-class]--why, oh why, does he think that's true? Not a rhetorical question. He's too young to be this blasé about life-and-death matters. And he's not nuts.

OK. I'll go there. Overcompensation of the Southern/Jewish sort. With a smattering of 'look, look, mom and dad, and you too, you WASP's who outperformed me along the way'. Add some testosterone-fueled hubris and unbridled ambition. Can we somehow send this person back to Richmond, please? I'd stuff envelopes and man a phone-bank.

And SirC--feel free to strike me down with a keystroke for my very un-PC psycho-assessment. I did work my way through college though, working in the campus Hillel House for an Orthodox rabbi. I 'met' Eric Cantor, I'm sure. Over and over.

[Joe S]

Cantor seems undistinguishable to me from 50 other GOP Congressmen and governors from Southern States (and 25 other GOP Congressmen from the Midwest). Nikki Haley, Nathan Deal, Steven King, Jim Jones, Bob Cuccinelli-- They all seem absolutely identical to me.

[nancy]

Joe--I guess my consternation is that the Jewish tradition just generally does not walk away from Maimonides. And he has. How so? Southern-political representational common cause doesn't explain this guy. I think. Not that it matters. He's wearing a mantle and loves it. Bully and creep, taking Congress and the country along on his juvenile ride.

[Joe S]

It's an unfortunate situation that lots of people from all traditions walk aware from the better philosophers and thinkers in their traditions. Marty Peretz and Avigdor Lieberman and a whole raft of writers for Commentary and the Weekly Standard seem to be of a piece with Cantor. Southern Evangelical Christianity and conservative Roman Catholic Christianity in this country both seem to have walked away from the actual teachings of Christ (as well as Augustine and Thomas Aquinas). Lots of people like to be bullies and creeps, sadly enough. Traditions never hold them back.

[nancy]

Joe--Sigh. You're right. But shouldn't we keep reminding and shaming them all? Most especially the righteous right? Because they, of all people want to build and 'use' the ugly sanctimony for nefarious and mean-spirited purposes.

Judeo-Christian this is not. Never will be. Can't be.

[beckya57]

Here's the really rich one: According to Kevin Drum, Wall Street is now having buyer's remorse, not liking the budget cuts' likely effect on the economy, and wishing...wait for it...stimulus. @#$%&$#%!!!!

And kathy, non-PC psych assessment is my job, not yours. ;)

[nancy]

Becky--I think I'm the psych-assessment amateur to which you're referring. (maybe wrong). But I thought of you today when I encountered this. Painful indeed. I'm sure you know more than any of us about this.

[beckya57]

Oops, sorry nancy (and kathy). My bad.

Vets do tend to have a high unemployment rate even in good times--PTSD takes a terrible toll on people. We've got soldiers now who've been deployed 5, 6, 7 times. I don't care how strong a person is, that's just asking too much.

[Sir Charles]

becky,

My favoritetake on Cantor was that he demolishes the myth that all Jews are smart.

I do think that there is something slightly off with him, although, appropos of what Joe posits, not to the degree that someone like Clarence Thomas betrays strange psychic scars.

One of my favorite and longest term clients lives in Cantor's district. To say that he finds this fact painful is a gross understatement.