"This Year's Girl" - Elvis Costello
[Really one of my favorite songs of all time, although the sound here is pretty mediocre -- one of my favorite things about youtube, by the way, are things like this -- a young wizard replicating Bruce Thomas's amazing bass line on this song.]
Time's running out. She's not happy with the cost.
There'd be no doubt, only she's forgotten
much more than she's lost.
So it seems like the Wasilla Snowbilly may throw her ski cap into the ring after all. I think it makes sense for her to do so -- she's in danger of disappearing from the scene, which could, in turn, take her off the grift. Plus, the thin GOP presidential field is set up perfectly for her entrance. One senses the desperation among the true believers as they look out on a field consisting of the ultimate trimmer, Romney, Tim Pawlenty, a guy who made Mitch Daniels seem compelling, and Newt Gingrich, a multi-dimensional disaster who nobody actually likes. (The claims by the way that this is comparable to the Democratic field in 1992, which consisted of Bill Clinton, Paul Tsongas, Tom Harkin, and Bob Kerrey are pretty amusing. Clinton, in particular, was, despite his considerable baggage, a far more accomplished politician and seasoned candidate than anyone in the current GOP crop. Clinton narrowly lost a race for the House at the age of 28, was elected attorney general of Arkansas at 30, elected governor at the age of 32, then after a stinging loss in 1980, went on to win four more terms as governor. [Arkansas had two year terms until 1986] Oh yeah, he was also young, charismatic, and incredibly fluent in virtually all policy matters while retaining a remarkable ability to put things in terms that resonated with average people).
I think Palin could be a very dangerous candidate for the GOP (in more senses than one) if she can actually get any kind of organization on the ground. She could win both Iowa and South Carolina in the current field, something that would likely knock Pawlenty out of the race. My biggest doubt about her viability for the nomination is her seeming lack of a work ethic -- her policy illiteracy will not be a detriment in the early going in the primaries.
But even if she can't win, I think Palin will take the shot so that she can stir up the true believers and keep the gravy train rolling. Her future income depends in large part on fresh outrages being committed against her by the lamestream media -- victimization is her meal ticket and it will likely pay handsomely -- however, this requires her to be in the game, not cosily tucked away in a sinecure at Fox. (One senses a similar phenomenon with Gingrich -- I think he knew if he didn't run this time that he was effectively writing himself off forever as a candidate and that this, in turn, might have a negative effect on his income, something that strikes me at this point as his true raison d'etre -- hey that Tiffany's bling can't be bought on a think tank salary.)
If she does get into the race, it will be fascinating to see how Fox and other important GOP voices handle her. There are definite paths for her to get the nomination, although I see no way that she doesn't get crushed in the general election. I also don't see, if it comes down to her and Romney battling it out, how Romney wins the general election -- having to slug it out with Palin is going to drag him down in more ways than he can count. He will be drained of all viability by the time Labor Day rolls around.
What do you all think?