In light of Arlen Specter's surprise switch to the Democrats, I thought I'd break out the annual Congressional Quarterly rankings. Here are the ones for 2008.
CQ compiles two rankings:
- The frequency with which lawmakers vote with the president when he clearly indicates his preferences (Presidential Support).
- The frequency with which they vote with their party, on occasions when a majority of Republicans oppose a majority of Democrats (Party Unity).
The Presidential Support ranking shows that in 2008, Specter was the shared-third most likely Republican Senator to vote against President Bush's wishes. He did so 42% of the time - as did Norm Coleman and Elizabeth Dole. Gordon Smith and Olympia Snowe, however, were more likely to dissent, at 51% and 52%.
In the Party Unity ranking, Specter was one of the overall top four party dissenters - all of whom were Republicans. On party line votes, Specter voted against the majority of his party 38% of the time. But he was clearly outdone, in this respect, by Smith (46%), Susan Collins (54%) and Snowe (61%).
Is the glass half full or half empty? The numbers mean Specter diverged from his president's and party's line a respectable number of times. He bucked his party more often than any Democrat, even Evan Bayh, abandoned theirs. But he still voted with GWB and the GOP some 60% of the time.
Now that he will join the Democratic caucus - and potentially face a challenger in the Democratic primaries - his bearings should change accordingly. But by how much? Will he start splitting his vote 50/50? Or start voting with the Dems 60% of the time?
In both cases he would still be the most conservative Democrat, at least judging on 2008's numbers (and thus excluding newly elected Dems). Last year, the Democrats who most often voted against their party were Bayh (35% of the time), Landrieu (31%) and Nelson (28%).
Is there something in that list of Republican dissenters above that struck you too, by the way? Gordon Smith was defeated last year. So was Liz Dole. And Norm Coleman. Now Specter's gone from the GOP caucus too. And that's not all.
Look at the chart that comes with the CQ rankings, at the bottom of the page, and select the Senate view. A block in the very top right corner would represent a Senator who voted with the GOP and with President Bush 100% of the time. A block in the top left corner would represent one who voted with the Democratic party, and against President Bush, 100% of the time. (The more Senators congregate at the same intersection, the darker the colour.)
The chart instantly shows which Senators were most likely to stray from the party line. Most of them were Republicans. But the ranks of Republican "outliers" are being decimated by retirement, election defeat - and now, party switching:
Only Snowe and Collins, the Maine Republicans, remain, in increasing loneliness far from the herd. The only other one who isn't leaving and takes a halfway rogue-ish position is Lisa Murkowski.
In this context, even Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts becomes something of an independent spirit - and maybe it deserves a mention that unlike, say, Michael Steele, Roberts commented respectfully on Specter's decision.
What's next for the GOP's ever shrinking tent?
N.B: I did some minor editing of sloppy writing here and there after posting.
N.B. 2: I edited out an embarassing oversight; thank you for pointing it out, commenter mcm!