We have three data points:
- In North Carolina, a targeted state African-Americans account for 28.1% of the early vote, but make up only 201% of the voting-age population, for an increase of 36.4%.
- In Georgia, a quasi-targeted state, they're 35.3% of the early vote (A figure that was higher earlier but seems to have stabilized), against 29.0% of VAP, for an increase of 21.0%.
- In Louisiana, an untargeted state, they're 34.3% of the early vote, against 30.5% of VAP, for an increase of 12.5%.
Those are big differences. An active Obama campaign seems to be increasing black turnout by somewhere between 15 and 25%. This is enough to tilt the election in Obama's favor by at least one percentage points even in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida that have only a modest-sized African-American population. It also suggests that Obama should have seriously considered targeting Mississippi, where the boost would have made the electorate over 47% African-American, enough that he would be almost certain to win the state.
We won't know how the Obama campaign affected youth turnout until the election is over, but I'm skeptical that the effect there is going to be as large. Still, even increasing youth turnout from 17% to 20% would be a big deal.
