« Single Issue Emphasis Brings Us This | Main | This Just In - Your "Douche Bag of Liberty" Update »

July 23, 2008

The Die Is Cast

The DCCC has now reserved space in 51 House races, 17 on defense and 34 on offense. Almost all of these races were previously on the committee's red to blue program. But not all the RTB candidates got ad spending. Here are those who didn't, with their Obama projection

District Incumbent Challenger Obama Projection CoH Ratio
PA-06 Gerlach Roggio 52.8 34.1
PA-15 Dent Bennett 51.8 51.5
AL-03 Rogers Segall 48.7 36.7
PA-03 English Dahlkemper 47.5 29.9
IL-06 Roskam Morganthaler 47.3 19.0
MN-02 Kline Sarvi 47.3 15.2
NJ-05 Garrett Shulman 46.5 45.2
VA-10 Wolf Feder 46.3 95.6
FL-09 Bilirakis Dicks 46.1 100.0
VA-02 Drake Nye 46.0 60.0
VA-05 Goode Periello 45.9 62.3
FL-13 Buchanan Jennings 45.8 37.8
CA-50 Bilbray Leibham 45.6 50.4
MN-06 Bachmann Tinklenberg 44.9 17.3

Assorted notes below the fold:

  • Chris Van Hollen promised that incumbents would not get money unless Republicans struck first. It appears CVH has a very expansive notion of "struck first". Gabby Giffords, John Yarmuth, and Steve Kagen are not really vulnerable, and he probably can afford to wait to spend money on Jason Altmire, Baron Hill (why Hill and not Donnelly or Ellsworth?), and the open seat in Oregon.
  • Dent and Gerlach are probably not on the list because they have somewhat pro-labor and, at least in Dent's case, somewhat pro-choice records. The major interest groups may not be willing to devote enough resources to these races to win them.
  • Morganthaler,  Sarvi, and Tinklenberg do not appear to be rasing enough scratch to compete. Shulman, Periello, and Jennings have seen their CoH ratios decline.

At this point I'm tempted to update my "under the radar" list, as we now have a set of candidates who are halfway under the radar, but still have enough money to compete. Kissell is feeling the love, so he doesn't need our help. David Robinson is not raising enough money, and Josh Zeitz's opponent has a 100% AFL-CIO rating. I'll keep Zeitz on, since his fundraising is solid and the district is highly competitive, but I think I will replace Robinson and Kissell with Samantha "Sam" Bennett and Kathy Dahlkemper.

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

The comments to this entry are closed.

ActBlue

  • Goal Thermometer
    Bob Roggio (PA-06) $
    Sam Bennett (PA-15) $
    Josh Zeitz (NJ-04) $
    Joshua Segall (AL-03) $
    Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) $
Blog powered by TypePad