The Die Is Cast
The DCCC has now reserved space in 51 House races, 17 on defense and 34 on offense. Almost all of these races were previously on the committee's red to blue program. But not all the RTB candidates got ad spending. Here are those who didn't, with their Obama projection
District | Incumbent | Challenger | Obama Projection | CoH Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
PA-06 | Gerlach | Roggio | 52.8 | 34.1 |
PA-15 | Dent | Bennett | 51.8 | 51.5 |
AL-03 | Rogers | Segall | 48.7 | 36.7 |
PA-03 | English | Dahlkemper | 47.5 | 29.9 |
IL-06 | Roskam | Morganthaler | 47.3 | 19.0 |
MN-02 | Kline | Sarvi | 47.3 | 15.2 |
NJ-05 | Garrett | Shulman | 46.5 | 45.2 |
VA-10 | Wolf | Feder | 46.3 | 95.6 |
FL-09 | Bilirakis | Dicks | 46.1 | 100.0 |
VA-02 | Drake | Nye | 46.0 | 60.0 |
VA-05 | Goode | Periello | 45.9 | 62.3 |
FL-13 | Buchanan | Jennings | 45.8 | 37.8 |
CA-50 | Bilbray | Leibham | 45.6 | 50.4 |
MN-06 | Bachmann | Tinklenberg | 44.9 | 17.3 |
Assorted notes below the fold:
- Chris Van Hollen promised that incumbents would not get money unless Republicans struck first. It appears CVH has a very expansive notion of "struck first". Gabby Giffords, John Yarmuth, and Steve Kagen are not really vulnerable, and he probably can afford to wait to spend money on Jason Altmire, Baron Hill (why Hill and not Donnelly or Ellsworth?), and the open seat in Oregon.
- Dent and Gerlach are probably not on the list because they have somewhat pro-labor and, at least in Dent's case, somewhat pro-choice records. The major interest groups may not be willing to devote enough resources to these races to win them.
- Morganthaler, Sarvi, and Tinklenberg do not appear to be rasing enough scratch to compete. Shulman, Periello, and Jennings have seen their CoH ratios decline.
At this point I'm tempted to update my "under the radar" list, as we now have a set of candidates who are halfway under the radar, but still have enough money to compete. Kissell is feeling the love, so he doesn't need our help. David Robinson is not raising enough money, and Josh Zeitz's opponent has a 100% AFL-CIO rating. I'll keep Zeitz on, since his fundraising is solid and the district is highly competitive, but I think I will replace Robinson and Kissell with Samantha "Sam" Bennett and Kathy Dahlkemper.
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