Why Doesn't Pawlenty Guarantee Minnesota?

Sean is certainly right that picking Tim Pawlenty for VP doesn't deliver Minnesota to McCain.  The SurveyUSA polling of VP picks bears this out. 

Pawlenty certainly helps McCain in his home state.  Pitted against Democratic VP choices that most Minnesotans don't know much about yet, he adds 10-13 points to McCain's numbers, pushing him above Obama.  (Of course, as people learn about Obama's VP pick, they'll probably like that person better and those numbers will even out.) 

The full polling is below.  As you'll see, there's one Democratic VP choice who actually erases everything Pawlenty gives McCain in Minnesota, and adds bonus points to Obama on top of that.  Who could it be? 

Obama/Edwards is invincible!

Comments

[Corvus9]

I totally saw that coming.

[Ted]

Can’t realistically imagine McCain selecting anyone other than Palin as his Veep!

[Neil the Ethical Werewolf]

I know you did, Corvus. I know you did :)

[Joe Klein's conscience]

Neil:
Is it because Minnesota knows what a CfG asshat Pawlenty is? The only reason Pawlenty helps McCain is that people(and MN residents in this case) don't know who anyone besides Edwards is on that list. Obviously you know about the PA polls, and how Edwards even tops Rendell. ;-)

[Neil the Ethical Werewolf]

Seeing you cite the PA SurveyUSA VP poll warms my heart. You folks know my work well...

[low-tech cyclist]

I liked this part of Nate's post:

I'm not really sure Bridge Collapse Guy is going to be able to hit Barack Obama on inexperience, for example.

I think that Pawlenty on the ticket would give the Dems a great jumping-off point for making this election about fundamentals - that Dems believe in investing in society (from bridges to universal health care), and the GOP doesn't.

Then they can ask Joe and Jane Sixpack: "How well is this business of not investing in societal institutions working out for you?" For most voters, that question isn't hard to answer.

[BP in MN]

The piece was by Sean Quinn, not Nate, who writes more of the math stuff and less of the touchy-feely stuff.

But as noted above, in state after state I'd argue that the vice-presidential polling seems to be driven almost entirely by name recognition. Since all vic presidential candidates are going to be well-known by November 4, the polling is silly. Does anyone really think the choice of VP picks could make a 23 point difference in a state like Minnesota, or in any state, really?

And anyway, once Minnesotans really think about out Lt. Gov taking over the top spot, the appeal of electing Pawlenty to national office evaporates. Gov. Molnau? Ugh, no thanks.

[Neil the Ethical Werewolf]

Yeah, the Sebelius and Rendell polls don't mean much. The Pawlenty-Edwards matchup, however, is free from this difficulty.

[4bob]

Rather than Pawlenty, Alaska Gov Sarah Palin does, in fact, seem the best VP pick for McCain. A commenter on another post says it much better than I can:

"They say McCain reads the blogs, so here goes --

Senator McCain- Don't let the campaign kibbitzers muddle things up.

First and foremost, Sarah Palin shares your values. She killed the bridge to nowhere. Need we say more?

As for the politics, Sarah Palin transcends geography. Her constituency, like yours, goes beyond state lines.

She will get your ticket access to voters all over the country based on who she is and what she stands for. Because she's young, a woman, a mother with young kids, she will grab media attention more than any other potential candidate.

Gov. Palin also has a son in the active duty military. You have very wisely taken your son's service in Iraq off the table as a campaign talking point. That is and should be respected. But others can talk about it and reflect on what it means.

A McCain-Palin administration would be the first in memory which has family members in uniform during wartime from both the President and Vice President. That would be a powerful statement as to the importance of national service, especially in uniform.

Most importantly, any Vice President should be ready to step up and serve in the event she is needed. Frankly, who is really ever ready? Gov. Palin is as ready as anybody, she is a quick learner, and in her public career has exhibited the courage and decisiveness needed for a great leader.

Godspeed to you in your campaign and in making this important decision."

[Ted]

Pawlenty is simply not gonna cut it. To win, McCain needs Sarah Palin as his veep-mate.

I do believe that Palin will get the nod.

McCain/Palin '08