West Virginia, MS-01, NE-SEN Primary et al. Meaningless Coffeehousing Thread

Did I miss any elections that are happening?

Let's be clear, Clinton will win West Virginia, and win big. The magic number for Obama is 35%; if he can get that much of the vote, he can hold Clinton to a 19-9 delegate margin. If he falls below 30%, it can get as bad as 23-6; at 22%, it drops to 22-5. Now, Obama is working West Virginia to some extent, with four offices per congressional district, so I think it will be a bit closer than the polls suggest, which is good, since most polls don't have him cracking 20%. "White Voters, Obama, and Appalachia" is a must read.

I assume Travis Childers (D) will lose in MS-01. The district is just too Republican, and the GOP candidate is not as bad as Jim Oberweis (R) in IL-14, who lost to Bill Foster (D) by 6, or Woody Jenkins (R) in LA-06, where Don Cazayoux (D) won by 3. I can't see it happening.

I have no clue what's going to happen in Nebraska. I think either candidate is dead meat in November, unless the Obama campaign suddenly converts a huge number of Nebraska voters into straight-ticket Ds, but who knows.

Comments

[low-tech cyclist]

Nick - I think you meant that most polls don't have Obama cracking 30%, not 20%. Pollster.com lists 4 WV polls this month, and Obama's support is at 23, 27, 23, and 24.

Of the handful of pollsters that have done WV, I think Suffolk's probably the best. They have Hillary up 60-24. (Rasmussen has 56-27; ARG 66-23; TSG-Orion, whoever they are, has 63-23.) Unless Rasmussen's right, Obama's going to have to get the heavy majority of the undecideds to get close to 35%.

But whatever. The real action is in MS-01 and in the Nebraska Senate primary, but I know essentially nothing about how those races are likely to play out today.