Via OpenLeft, a list of states where the Barack Obama campaign is getting a head start on organizing. Here's the map of states where Obama is defending:
And here's a map where they're playing offense:
Assorted notes below the fold.
- Neither Montana nor North Dakota make the list. When you consider the fact that the Kerry campaign made a substantial investment in Colorado and Nevada, Obama is not really expanding the map in the West.
- Team Obama is clearly spooked by the early polls that showed New Jersey to be competitive.
- The decision to compete in Georgia and North Carolina, but not Mississippi, seems correct; Mississippi has more African Americans, but is less urban and has fewer white college degree holders. In three of the four districts, Kerry and Gore got less than 20% of the white vote. But if there's room for one more medium-sized state, it should be Mississippi or South Carolina.
- Texas is not on the list. I'm not sure if this reflects a skepticism of the ability to hold the Latino vote, or just how deep the hole is for Democrats, or the amount of money it would take to compete there. But I'm a little sad that it's not in play: a rainbow coalition of Obama, Noriega, and a bunch of white Congressman would be pretty cool.
- In terms of impact on down-ticket races, the decision to start early in Washington but not Minnesota looks like a mistake. Both states are only at the edge of swing state territory at the Presidential level.
Neither state has a Senate raceWashington has no Senate race, but the Minnesota Senate contest will be tight. At the House level, only WA-08 is really in play, while in Minnesota, MN-01, MN-03, and MN-06 are potentially competitive. Otherwise, he's playing in states that are home to almost all of the competitive House races.
Overall, Obama can afford to be more aggressive. He's not taking full advantage of his strength over Hillary Clinton, which is that he does a better job locking up the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. Washington is not really in play. Oregon probably isn't either. The state party can take care of business in New Jersey. Those three states account for 33 electoral votes, one fewer than Texas. Iowa, which is starting to look safe, accounts for seven--one more than Mississippi and one fewer than South Carolina. Obama would be better of expending fewer resources on defense and more on offense, in the hope of spreading the McCain campaign too thin.
If I were Paul Tewes, I'd take resources out of Washington, Oregon, New Jersey, and partially out of Iowa and Pennsylvania, and instead put them in Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, North Dakota, and Montana. But on balance this isn't a bad place to start.
