Run Everywhere: Incumbents

Another list, this time looking at GOP House incumbents in districts where Barack Obama can be expected to do well.

Again, races that have already made the punditocracy's radar are in bold:

At the top of this list, outside of the Miami districts, are frequent targets like Chris Shays, Mark Kirk, Dave Reichert, Jim Gerlach, etc. Some of the Northeastern Members (LoBiondo, King, Castle), have somewhat pro-labor records and are probably safe. But outside the top 10 there are several districts that aren't on anyone's radar. For example Obama stands a chance at winning Mike Rogers district in MI-08 (Lansing, exurban Detroit), but Rogers is in the conservative half of the Republican Caucus. He should have a substantial challenger, but he doesn't. Here's the website of his opponent, Bob Alexander (D).

If we draw the line at districts where Obama gets 45% of the vote, there are 58 vulnerable incumbents and 14 vulnerable open seats. Not all of those will pan out, but it shows that the potential field is very large.

Comments

[Ari]

Did you compile this yourself? I'm assuming the answer is yes. And if that's the case, you've given me still more reason to consider this my favorite blog. Really, this is amazing stuff, Nick. Thanks.

[Stephen]

you've given me still more reason to consider this my favorite blog.

Somewhat off topic, but you do remember that I still write here, right?

I will add my voice to yours regarding Nick's great work.

[Ari]

You know I love you, Stephen. You're one among many reasons that this really is my favorite blog. [air kisses for everyone here]

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

I thought I posted this ... but the census has the raw data, and you can massage it into percentages with enough excel-fu. Now, I'm probably a Brown Belt in excel (I have yet to master the pivot table, which is required for the black-belt), but it's easy enough to work out.

[Matt Weiner]

More cheers for Nick! I'd give Don Young boldface too, though I may have a skewed definition of the punditocracy.

And, damn, I've been represented by two of the bottom ten Congressfolk (Bishop and Neugebauer).

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Oh, right ... I'd forgotten about him ... he's so far down the list because Alaska is such a Republican state.

[Anderson]

Great list, but ...

... Gene Taylor, Miss. 4th District, is a Democrat.

Just sayin'.

[Sir Charles]

Let me also concur in praising the first clas quality of the work. And the sentiment that we need to fight everywhere.

[Nazgul35]

Are you aware that in Michigan, college students are subject to a law that forces most of them to vote where their parents live?

It was the brain child of then State Congresscritter Mike Rogers...

If you are counting the college population in a district, you may be over estimating their impact on the races.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Thanks Anderson ... I think I missed a couple.

Ahhh ... thanks for the catch, Nazgul. I don't know how the census deals with that. There is a section for "institutional population, including dorms, prisons, mental health facilities, etc., but I don't know how it works". That sucks, though.

[gab]

I live in Dreier's district (CA-26), and if Obama gets 48.9% of the vote in my district, I'll eat this keyboard. Just not gonna happen, sorry to say.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Gab, I agree ... like I said in the previous post ... there are a number of districts with a large number of hispanics that this model thinks are closer than they should be, because the Hispanics aren't voting. You have to use common sense and throw those out.

[Howard]

Good list, but how come none of the open Republican seats are listed?

Even more so than unseating a Rep, it would have been useful to look at Obama's effect on Pryce's, Fossella's, and others' ex-seats.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

There's a separate list for open seats.

The top ten targets for open seats are, in order, Walsh, Saxton, Davis, Wilson (maybe: see Hispanic caveat), Ferguson, Ramstad, Fosella, Pryce, Weller, and Reynolds. Obama's projected to go above 50% in the first eight of those, and presumably will top 50% in Weller's district as well, considering it's his home state.

[phoebes in santa fe]

I'm not sure how to read your chart, but the IL-10 used to be my CD. It's along the Lake in the suburbs just north of Chicago. It was a long-time WASP district, heavily Republican, BUT in the last 20 years or so has been trending Democratic. IN FACT, it went for Gore and Kerry in the presidential elections, but has continued to elect "moderate" Republican congressmen.

Mark Kirk (a total non-entity) has held the seat since 2000, but faced token opposition til 2006, when Dan Seals took the Dem nomination. With only grass-roots support in money and workers (and NO money from Rahm and the DCCC til the very end of the race), Seals made a real race and came within 5% of winning. Seals is running again this year - and with the help of the DCCC, this time - and will hopefully score a victory, particularly if Obama is at the top of the ticket.

Go to ActBlue and look up IL-10 for a pretty good picture of the district and the race.

[tom veil]

This list helps drive home the point that the Democratic Party needs to heal any wounds caused by the Michigan-Florida foolishness and get serious about the most important business, winning seats.

Right now, Michigan's congressional delegation is 9 GOP - 6 Dem. If the Dems won at the 50% marker in this analysis, they'd flip that to 9-6 in their favor; if they won at 45%, the Michigan delegation would be an incredible 13 Dem - 2 GOP.

Similarly, FL would go from 16 GOP - 9 Dem to 13 GOP - 12 Dem at 50% and 6 GOP - 19 Dem at 45%. Yow! That's a lot of room for growth.

[Wendell]

Nick,

Could you give the same breakdown for TX-32 Sessions? I'm a Dem precinct captain in that district, and would REALLY like to know.

[Bob Alexander]

Thank you, Nicholas Beaudrot, for your fantastic data on the Obama effect on the Fall Democratic Victories in Congress, and for publicizing that the Bob Alexander for Congress campaign is ranked the 18th most competitive of the 170 races against a Republican Incumbent in Congress this Fall!

It is sad that instead of directing interested readers to our current website, BobAlexanderForCongress.com, they were directed to our inactive 2004 site.

Today our 2008 site has only the frame work for our Homepage. We have been working feverishly for two weeks to update our old site. Each evening we will make public our latest improvements for BobAlexanderForCongress.com for several days. Please check out our progress both on the website and our campaign to replace Mike Rogers in Michigan's 8th District.

Best Wishes to all the Democratic Challengers across the nation.

Bob Alexander, Democratic Nominee to replace Mike Rogers in November.

[Susan in 8th District, MI]

Bravo for identifying Rogers as vunerable in the 8th district. We local dems agree. We hear the frustration from Independents and Republicans. They are ready for change.

The website and much more is comming on board fast as people take notice that we have a viable candidate in a competitive race-Go Bob Alexander!

Keep shining the spotlight on our district. We plan to look better every time glance our way!

[Amy Buttery]

I'm volunteering on Bob Alexander's campaign (MI's 8th district) and I concur with Susan above. Bravo and thanks. I think some dems (and repubs) in this area may be surprised to hear that the 8th district is considered competitive--there's such a strong assumption that Rogers will hold that seat. Now we need to get the word out, wake up more dems and take this opportunity to rid ourselves of Rogers by working hard for Alexander now!

[Michael]

What great news to hear that Michigan's 8th District is in play. It is way past time for this district to wake up to the fact that Mike Rogers does not have our best interest at heart. We really need Bob Alexander to win.

[Mathew]

Thanks for putting forth math to support what we have been saying on the ground here in MI's 8th district, that this time around we have a great chance to get Mike Rogers out of there! One doesn't need to look far to see how bad Mike has been for not just the district but American everywhere.

Yes, when directed at Alexander's old website things look rather bleak. But to say Mikes foe is not a substantial challenger is off the mark by a long shot. The picture here on the ground is far more optimistic than the out of date web page. The message we're getting from even area's classically considered republican stronghold's is overwhelmingly positive in Bob's favor. In just the past few weeks, I've personally gathered hundreds of signatures of support for Bob in the conservative counties of Clinton and Shiawassee by going door to door and to date I've heard less than a total of ten people say they favor Rogers. At large public events voters come track me down from the far side of the event to vehemently offer their support just because they overheard the magic words "unseat Mike Rogers."

Alexander's a much stronger candidate than lot of people on the national level realize yet. That being said, Rogers is still daunting opponent with tons of big money behind him and in district he drew up. Bob Alexander is offering us a great chance for a very important and long overdue change but, if we are going to make real change happen in congress, good candidates like Bob are going to need all the support we can offer.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Wendell ... sorry ... I had the D/R designation wrong on a few congressmen.

Sessions district comes in at 42.4% for Obama ... but that assumes that Latinos vote in that district, which may or may not be true.