Indiana/North Carolina Meaningless Coffeehousing Thread

Whatchu got?

The tendency in this election cycle is for the poll leader to expand their lead in the actual vote. So I think Obama will win North Carolina by around 10%, while Clinton will win Indiana in the high single digits.

The delegate count in NC is very volatile; small changes in the popular vote can lead to big changes in the delegate count. In the pessimistic case, where Obama gets 55% of white college degree holders and 25% of white non-college degree holders, he nets only 7 or so delegates. If it's 60 and 30, it goes up to about 13. If it's 60 and 35, it can go as high as 30. Early turnout looks very good, but it looked good in Texas as well (though not this good).

Things are more stable in Indiana; Clinton will certainly net two in IN-09, Obama in IN-07. That leaves IN-08 (for Clinton), IN-01 (for Obama), and IN-03 (for Clinton) as the battlegrounds. My bet is for Clinton to take one of those, while the candidates will break even in the other two. That leaves Clinton +5 for the whole state.

Comments

[ikl]

I predicted Obama + 11 delegates in NC (+ 7 in CDs and + 4 at large and PLEO). I predicted + 6 for Clinton in IN (+ 3 in CDs and + 3 for at large and PLEO).

I actually don't think that NC is that volitile in terms of delegates. I'm not sure whether CD 2 goes 4-2 Obama or 3-3 and I'm not sure whether CD 4 goes 5-4 Obama for 6-3 Obama. Other than that, everything else seems locked in absent a really big night for one candidate or the other (CD 1 O+2; CDs 5, 6, and 10 C + 1; CD 11 C + 2; CDs 8, 13 O + 1; CD 12 O + 3, everything else is tied).

I think that there is also an outside chance that Clinton gets to 4-2 in CD 2 in IN, though I think that 3-3 is more likely.

[Ari]

Obama wins NC by 5-8%. Clinton wins Indiana by 8-10%. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear the worst. Which really won't be that bad. Because Obama will still expand his delegate and popular vote lead. Holy hell, I can't believe I just wrote that about the popular vote. This is how effective the Clinton campaign has been at controlling the narrative. Who cares about the popular vote? It doesn't matter! And yet it does. Sigh. Please, Nick, talk to your people; make this nightmare end.

[Ari]

Also: North Carolina won't count. Because it sits atop South Carolina, where Jesse Jackson won, which means that it doesn't count either North Carolina is also just south of Virginia. And as any fool will tell you, Virginia doesn't count. Why? Because, that's why. So, based on a new transitive property of not countingness, North Carolina won't count. We don't even have to count the votes.

Indiana, by contrast, where the Klan controlled Democratic politics as recently as, hold on while I check my calendar, yep, it was last week, now that's a state that counts. That's a true-blue American state. That one counts. Maybe double.

[low-tech cyclist]

Nick - I don't believe anyone can win the Indiana primary by an odd number of delegates, since it has an even number of delegates being determined by the primary, and only two candidates. (And no delegates with half-votes, like in Guam or the Democrats Abroad.)

Predictions? I don't need no steenkin' predictions!

OK, I'll give one anyway. Each candidate wins their favored state by at least 5%. The undecideds in Indiana clearly lean Clinton, and if NC gets 35% or better black turnout (which I'd bet on), it's really, really hard for Clinton to get closer than 5%.

[Doc Hatter]

IN-03's got four delegates, and I can't see them splitting anything other than 50-50. The city (Fort Wayne) is probably going to go for Obama --- he's got a lot of people on the ground here, at least in the area I live in --- but the city isn't quite half the district.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

In Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, Obama won very few towns/cities with fewer than 500,000 people. E.G. he won Dayton, Cincy, Cleveland, and Columbus, but not Toledo, or any of the other modest sized towns (Akron, Canton, Youngstown, etc.). I'm betting against him in Ft Wayne despite the effort.

[Sir Charles]

I think Ari is getting cynical -- c'mon Ari, the Hoosier State Democrats gave us Evan Bayh, one of the most remarkably empty suits in a city (Washington) full of them. He's like the Armani of empty suits.

OT, but what was with Harry Reid last night on TDS? Did someone slip percosets into his coffee? Strom Thurmond had more life in him last night.

[Sir Charles]

Nick,

Tell me Zogby is right and hasn't been doing magic mushrooms or something.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/zogby_obama_expanding_lead_in.php

He's really been off all through the primaries, hasn't he? A boy can dream though.

[Ron]

North Carolina is a southern state with a big black population. I expect a big double digit Obama win there. Indiana seems to be trending towards Clinton. Let's say a high single digit victory for her.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Zogby has been doing magic mushrooms. His polls assume a much closer gender balance than everyone else, which accounts for almost all the difference.

[Ari]

Thanks for that explanation, Nick, in your comment at 9:47. I've been trying to figure out how Zogby has been so wrong so often. Now the next question is, why isn't he changing as time passes?

[nimh]

Good news from Ft Wayne, which you were talking about earlier: with 93% of precincts reporting Obama is ahead in Allen county by 55% to 45%.

[low-tech cyclist]

It's starting to look like a pleasant evening! NC's going to be somewhere between a solid Obama victory and a rout: with 20% reporting, Obama's up 62-37. Meanwhile, IN's gradually closing (with 63% reporting, Clinton's lead is down to 7.3%), and Gary has yet to report.

If Obama wins big in NC, and Clinton wins IN by 5 or less, there's no way on God's green earth that the Clintonistas will be able to spin this as anything more than a loss.

[Sir Charles]

Nick,

It is time for you to begin bestowing wisdom on us as to what is all looks like.

My gut reaction (on a very amateur basis) is a very big win for Barack in NC and a very tight Clinton win in IN. And doesn't that make a compelling case for the SDs to start running to Obama and for pressure to mount on Hillary to call it a day?

[low-tech cyclist]

68% reporting in Indiana, Hillary's lead is down to 5.9%, and her actual vote margin is dropping, now down to 49K. Still no Gary!

TPM says CBS called IN for Clinton nearly an hour ago, but nobody else followed. Wise of everyone else.

[Sir Charles]

Flag pin -- he don't need no stinking flag pin.

Obama talks about real American values. I think he's nailing it -- I suspect the talking heads will agree. It's time for the pendulum to swing back a bit on the coverage me thinks.

[low-tech cyclist]

We're halfway home in NC, and it's 57-41 Obama. Lookin' good!

In IN, with 74% reporting, the gap's now under 38K in votes, and down to 4.0%. And Gary still waits on the sidelines!

[Sir Charles]

Does Gary have a "Mayor Dailey" waiting to see how many votes are needed?

[low-tech cyclist]

If it doesn't, it should!

[Sir Charles]

According to Pumpkinhead, Lake County (Gary) will not be in until 11:00 PM. See my comment above.

And where's our map man and spiritual leader? Surely he could read the tea leaves and tell us if there is a chance for a big double win?

[low-tech cyclist]

In other News of the Weird, SUSA lost both ends of a doubleheader to Zogby tonight. How often does that happen?

[Sir Charles]

The magic mushrooms must have worked this time.

[Sir Charles]

It's scary -- Tweety and I have the same thoughts with respect to Gary -- holding back the vote.

They are saying massive turnout there too. Looks like I'm staying up.