Guessing Game

Which of these maps is poblano's predicted results, and which is the actual results? No peeking! Answer on the flip ... sorry, RSS readers.

 

The one on the left is the actual results, and the one on the right is the predicted results. Again, in the main poblano's predictions are quite accurate. But my caveats seem to have held up for the most part; Western NC (except Asheville and Counties to its South) went more heavily for Clinton, rural black counties went more heavily for Obama, urban counties went more heavily for Obama, and Asheville does appear to be a crunchy-granola place where white voters are more comfortable voting for Obama.

But I was wrong about white voters in the RTP. I forgot that this region of the country doesn't just have a lot of college degree holders, it has a lot of PhD holders as well, who are even more likely to vote for Obama. There's some additional error in counties surrounding Charlotte, but it's all close enough for government work.

Comments

[ikl]

Pablano's map is pretty good and your commentary on it before the election was also pretty good. Which is a long way of saying that the results were actually pretty predictable.

Though I seem to have blown my own predictions in at least 2 CDs (hopefully more!) and under estimated Obama at large delegates by 2 as well.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Where are you getting CD-level results?