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May 14, 2008

BREAKING: John Edwards Endorses Barack Obama

"We are here tonight because the Democratic voters have made their choice, and so have I."

-- John Edwards, standing alongside and endorsing Democratic frontrunner Barack Obama before an enormous crowd in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Senator Obama said he was happy to be visiting Michigan, particularly as he had not been able to campaign there previously (referring to his honoring the pledge to not campaign and to also remove his name from the ballot earlier in the year.)

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I have to say, I don't understand. Why now? If you're not going to endorse before Ohio and Texas (when he had maximum leverage to ask for a Cabinet post or VP in exchange for an endorsement), why not just wait until everybody has voted? Now it just looks like the boys are ganging up on Clinton, even though the race is pretty clearly over.

Dude, is this seriously hard to see?

The Obama Campaign has had a pretty consistent habit of rolling out endorsements AFTER contests, either to slow down or reverse negative "momentum" or speed up postive momentum. I assume that the Obama camp just has a certain number of endorsements that they just sit on and roll out as need be.

This is actually a really clever approach, using endorsements to effect media narrative instead of politics. As someone pointed out (I think it was KOS) the only endorsements that matter electorally are governors and mayors: people with machines that can influence people. These endorsements, I think, have tended to come in the runup to a primary. Endorsements are really mostly useful in effecting what the pundits are saying, which, of course, effects the race (people are more likely to vote for you if they think you can win).

In this context, it's really frickin' obvious why Edwards is coming out now. Obama just got knocked on his ass in Honkytown. So who better to halt the "Obama does bad with white people" meme than the party's foremost "white guy," the guy who was wrapping up the white male and conservative democrat demo when he was still in the race.

In this context, it's also easy to see why he came out now. It's possible Camp O. has been sitting on this for weeks. Or maybe he figures coming out to staunch the WV loss earns him points. Or hey, maybe he isn't a huge prick, and just isn't doing this solely for personal gain.

And whatever the case, it doesn't really matter. Edwards is probably one of the most popular and well like figures in the party right now. I don't really know of any Obama supporters who don't like him, or Clinton supporters either (except for the NH gaffe). I am pretty sure that Edwards can basically pick whatever Cabinet position he wants, and he will get it (though Labor or AG are the most likely). He could probably be VP, too, but think he already says he doesn't want it.

Basically, I see no way in which this doesn't make total sense, both for Edwards, Obama, and the party.

In this context, it's really frickin' obvious why Edwards is coming out now. Obama just got knocked on his ass in Honkytown. So who better to halt the "Obama does bad with white people" meme than the party's foremost "white guy," the guy who was wrapping up the white male and conservative democrat demo when he was still in the race.

Corvus9--exactly. Though he maintains a generally calm, cool, and genial air, Senator Obama is a superb organizer and strategist, as he's proven again and again. I'm afraid he'd wipe the floor with me in a game of chess.

(Am watching the beginning of Morning Joe, and Mika actually smiled when she said"...Barack Obama". Could the tide be turning on that show, too?!)

I would imagine that the endorsement has been in the works for at least a week, since there have been some subtle hints dropped. Longer than that, though, I don't buy it... Edwards has been quite tight-lipped until he mentioned that he voted for Obama in NC. He didn't have to say that, so that suggests to me that he made the decision not too long before that comment. The rest is, presumably, a function of strategy.

As for why he waited so long, I recall an article (American Prospect??) about Obama bungling things with Edwards by getting into a fight about mandates in UHC. I think depending on one's view, he may have either decided that neither of the major candidates gave him a sufficiently clear reason to endorse them until recently, or he may have been waiting until the storyline started shifting to someone as the presumptive Democratic nominee so he could toss his hat in with the right person. After all, it doesn't help to endorse someone who winds up losing...

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