Always Darkest Before Dawn

Now that CNN has officially declared Indiana for Hillary Clinton, the evening's mostly over. Clinton walks away +4 from Indiana, while Barack Obama is probably about +13 or so in North Carolina. Obama's 233K popular vote margin almost entirely offset's Clinton's gains in Pennsylvania and Indiana combined.

But Obama fans, now is time to batten down the hatches, because the next few weeks will not be pretty. Clinton will romp in West Virginia, where the Obama campaign isn't really making a full effort. Obama will probably hit the "magic number"—a guaranteed majority of pledged delegates—two weeks from now when Oregon votes, but Clinton's likely win in Kentucky will keep her in the race. The Obama campaign doesn't have the time to spin up a full-fledged ID/Persuade/GOTV campaign in these two states as they did in Indiana and North Carolina (where they started shortly after the Ohio/Texas primaries), which means that the losses will trigger several weeks worth of stories discussing why working-class white voters from small towns in the Lower Midwest are the most important voters ever (I see Jerome Armstrong's revving up the cultural class warfare engines already), and that Barack Obama has "problems reaching out" to those voters.

Comments

[ikl]

I think that there is a real chance that Clinton will drop out before WV. We all know the result now and running a losing campaign isn't much fun even if you win states that you are expected to win.

+ 13 is a conservative estimate for Obama in NC. It still could be +15.

And now is a good opportunity for super delegates to endorse Obama. I doubt that party leaders will have much appetite for Clinton's negative campaign from now on.

[Bruce]

no need to batten down the hatches. This is over.

Now you can hear and feel the air of acceptance from her, she knows it is over for the first time during this campaign.

Now it is on lets not give Bush another 4 year term.

[Ari]

I think I'm with ikl and Bruce, to some extent at least, though I don't imagine she'll drop out soon. She'll raise some money, if she can, begin running her campaign as a skeleton operation, and try to position herself well in the party. Wins in WV and KY will help with that. The question, I suppose, is whether she'll change tactics in the interim: begin to bash McCain, stump as a Democrat rather than Hillary Clinton, find some nice things to say about Obama, and prepare to shuffle off into the night. I hope so. I'd really like to begin admiring her again, even though I'll never think about her the same way as I once did.

[Corvus9]

Also to be considered is the MSM effect. I have been hearing from various blogs (I don't have a teevee myself) the pundits, particularly Russert, seem to be swinging toward the narrative that the nomination is now truly in the bag.

Now, like all decent, right-brain thinking people, I abhor the negative and distorting effects that the egregiously misinformed pundit class has upon our political system. However, I must also admit that it does effect political reality, and that both campaigns often act in such a way as to direct the media narratives. In particular, as people have pointed out in these parts, the Clinton camp has been enormously effective at playing the expectations game as a tactic for staying in the race.

But that option seems to going out the window now. If the media starts to turn en masse against the idea that Hillary has a chance, and starts focusing instead on how she can best exit, there is almost no way for her to stay in.

[Corvus9]

Oh, and Jerome Armstrong is an ass.

[Ari]

Corvus9, here's Russert: "We now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be." Etc. And yes, that he's right this time, renders him no less of a gassy gasbag. I still find his huge head -- like Sputnik -- truly abominable.

[Ari]

Nice stray comma up there. Sorry, it's time for bed.

[Another Chris]

Clinton's entire argument over the last few months has basically come down to "my supporters are more real than yours." Same argument the Republicans resorted to after Gore won the popular vote.

[Corvus9]

Yeah, it was Russert's comment that I was referring to, mostly. I figure, as the Pumpkinhead goes, so goes the pundits.

And actually, I am not really even sure you can say he is right this time. It's been obvious for a long time that Obama was the nominee; if someone as allegedly informed as a fucking journalist is only now getting around to that view, he's a dumbass.

My point was more that the Hillary campaign was propped up to a certain extent by the news media narrative. If that narrative shifts against her, it will be almost impossible for her to keep going. Funding will dry up, superdelegates will both endorse and defect, voters will shift preference to unite behind the nominee (except for the die-hards, of course). In a sense, this isn't really fair, but then it was never fair to begin. This change, if it sticks (and it might not), will merely be reality reasserting itself in our discourse.

So, lest there be any doubt, let me just say that, yes Ari, Tim Russert is indeed a gassy gasbag.

[low-tech cyclist]

If the story in the MSM is that it's over, then it's over. Because it's been over in real terms ever since Clinton failed to gain any ground in OH/TX/MS. All that Clinton's had is the sustained illusion that this was still a contest. Without the help of the MSM in propping up that illusion, the game's over, and the illusion that the game's still on is over, too.

Time to turn the house lights on, and for people to file out of the auditorium and back to their cars for the drive home.

[KathyF]

Clinton won't get out, because basically she is running for President of Appalachia.

[low-tech cyclist]

That's the solution - Obama can offer her a new cabinet position, Secretary of Appalachia.

What he doesn't have to tell her is that she'd report to anti-poverty czar John Edwards. :D

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

"Clinton won't get out, because basically she is running for President of Appalachia."

That's my line! Well I usually say "President of the Ohio River Valley", but it's about the same thing.

[KathyF]

Sorry, Nicholas, didn't know you'd already noticed that too. I've been running around saying it to people here, but since British people don't even know where Appalachia is, I haven't gotten the response I'd have liked.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Mostly I'm just happy that someone else noticed.

I have no sense of what the corresponding region of the UK is. Would it be like trying to become Prime Minister by winning Scotland with a huge majority? Or of Scotland excluding Edinburgh (sp?)? And, isn't that Labour's current strategy?

[KathyF]

Wales. I happen to love Wales, but the English look down on the Welsh, for some reason. Perhaps it's that they insist on speaking another language, or the fact that the Welsh positively hate the English. So its like becoming PM by winning Wales. But then they already have their own political party, Plaid Cymru. (Pronounced Pliayed Cumree.)

Currently, Labour has no strategy, as far as I can tell.