I almost forgot! Here's my projection for tonight's results in map form. Obama gets a 5-2 split in PA-01, a 7-2 split in PA-02, then wins PA-07 and PA-14. Clinton takes PA-10 3-1 and PA-11 4-1, but otherwise everything stays close. The colors here represent delegate margins, not popular vote margins ... sorry 'bout that.
So that's a Clinton +3 for the district-level delegates?
The 55 statewide delegates are divided into 2 groups, one of 35 and one of 20. A 56-44 Clinton win would give her 20/35 and 11/20 for a grand total of an 84-74 win.
Obama was +12 in Idaho.
That's right - it looks as if Clinton's big night in PA - even if it IS a big night for her - will fail to offset Obama's delegate haul from Idaho.
Sweet.
Posted by: low-tech cyclist | April 22, 2008 at 02:52 PM
Yeah. Clinton +3. She'll get +5 on the statewide vote for a +8 total, unless she gets about 56%, at which point it goes up to +7 (and 10 statewide)
My worst-case scenario for Obama is a net loss of 14, if PA-01 goes 3-4, PA-12 goes 1-4, and the statewide goes -7, at which point it's a 14 delegate loss for Obama. To do worse than that he'd have to lose PA-07, and a couple of the 5-delegate districts would need to go 30-70. Clinton really only did that in rural Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Ted Strickland's district. I think he's safe.
Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | April 22, 2008 at 02:59 PM