Pennsylvania Primary Meaningless Coffeehousing Thread

I love the smell of voting in the morning. Smells like ...

... a modest defeat. There's no reason to think Obama's going to win; he's been behind in every single poll except except a few by PPP and Zogby. Clinton will probably end up with a margin between 8 and 11 percent. WIth polls showing him slightly ahead in the Philly suburbs and getting right at 38% in the T (with 10% undecided), I think the final delegate margin should be close.

You only need to watch eight counties to see how this election will go. I've put my projected final delegate count if he wins one particular county:

• Westmoreland County (+8 to +0). If he wins here, he's probably won PA-18 and perhaps PA-04 in upsets, it means his statewide appeal was higher than everyone thought, the popular vote will be close, and he'll almost certainly end up with a delegate lead.
• Northampton County and Lehigh County (4 to -4). The Lehigh valley, in the Pennsylvania media market, is is the absolute upper bound of where I think Obama stands a legitimate chance of winning. If he wins here it's a very good night for him.
• Bucks County (-0 to -8). The least favorable of the suburban Philly districts, PA-08 is only 3% African American and has roughly the same number of college degree holders as the next most competitive district.
• Montgomery County (-4 to -12). With a 9.2% African-American population and 38% white adults either in college or with a B.A., PA-13 is the toss-up district.
• Allegheny County (-6 to -14). If Obama loses Pittsburgh, it means he doesn't have any appeal to Pennsylvania's working class whites. It's not out of the realm of possibility; he lost Toledo, Ohio, which has roughly the same percentage of African-Americans, though it's less educated and less urban than Pitt.
• Chester County (-10 to -20). While PA-06 awards an even number of delegates, the district is 8% African-American, and 47% of whites are college educated. A loss here means that Clinton will win a clear majority of the suburbs.
• Delaware County (-12 to -30). Danger! Will Robinson! Danger! This is the wealthiest, best educated suburb of Philadelphia. If he loses here, he'll lose PA-07, and won only the two Philadelphia districts.

My best guess is Obama will win PA-07, but lose both PA-13 and PA-08, lose 3 delegates in PA-11 (Scranton) and 2 in PA-10 (Williamsport) giving Clinton an 83-75 delegate lead. Anything between 86-72 and 82-76 is a distinct possibility.

Consider this an open thread.

Comments

[litbrit]

Smells like...MEAN SPIRIT!

Oh boy, I can't wait for this primary to be over. Pass the Excedrin.

[Sir Charles]

That makes two of us.

May Obama keep it exceedingly close so that we can start to see the beginning of the end of this process.

[Ari]

My prediction? The spin over the next couple of weeks will make me seek the rest cure. Here are the details.

Tonight: after Clinton wins by 8%-12%, almost every pundit will ignore the delegate count as the Clinton camp promises to fight until Denver. Obama's feeble effort to claim victory, pointing to how much he narrowed the gap, will be drowned out by the sound and fury. I will take two Advil and three Tylenol. My head will still hurt. As will my stomach, because of all the over-the-counter meds.

In the coming days: the delegate math will become clearer, the pundits will realize that Clinton is farther than ever from her goal, but the narrative frame will be less appealing than the prospect of a brokered convention. Clinton will feed this story with more claims than Obama is anti-democratic. Michigan! Florida! The poor disfranchised voters. In short: we'll see more process stories on an endless cable news loop. I will consider, at least twice per day, leaving the country. I'll stay but will up my consumption of painkillers, possibly even dabbling in that gateway drug, beer.

Early next week: some manufactured gaffe from one of the candidates will captivate the pundits. Either that or Bill Clinton will eat a baby harp seal on live television and then insist, blood dripping from his maw, that Obama is anti-environment. I will begin contemplating moving to Guam, assuming I can register in time for the island's primary. The lining of my stomach will long since have been shredded by all of the Advil. I may become numb. But I doubt it.

Somebody please make it stop. Please. For the baby seals.

[Andrew]

Going to take the contrarian view on this one.

I subscribe to the view that

a) Obama has about a 90% chance of being the nominee
b) Clinton will go down fighting, but not destroy the party in order to save it
c) Iraq and the economy have nothing but downside
d) Obama (or much less likely, Clinton) will get a significant bounce when the nomination is clinched
e) the headwinds for the Republican candidate will make the Presidential race a huge uphill battle
f) continuing the Democratic primaries continues to draw people towards the Democrats
g) most people are voting issues (economy, Iraq, immigration, values) not chatter (WRight, Tuzla, "bitter")
h) the media political commentators are bored by the Democratic nomination race, but overall it's been a strong positive to the Democrats.

[Sir Charles]

Ari,

Clearly you need to call Cindypills and get some stronger stuff.

You're bringing me down here. Jesus that seems like a scarily realistic scenario right down to the baby seal eatin'.

[Ron]

I see a 9-12% Clinton win. In reality that won't help her make any progress towards becoming the nominee since she'll only net a handful of delegates and her popular vote will be canceled out by his expected popular vote in North Carolina. But she'll spin it as a decisive turning point and the media will play along for a week or so like they did after Ohio and Texas. Then the math will reassert itself and the narrative will swing back to Clinton must win Indiana. If Obama wins there and wins huge in North Carolina, then logically the race should be over. I'm not holding my breath waiting for Clinton to withdraw on May 7 though. If she loses Indiana but pushes on, the time will have arrived for the party poobahs to step in and bring the race to a conclusion.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

After the final week of campaigning, I don't think I can take much more of this. I hope it ends after North Carolina and Indiana.

[ikl]

My prediction was the same as Nicholas', it appears, except that Obama holds PA 11 to 3-2 (but I will feel silly for not going with the sinking feeling in my stomach if this doesn't happen) but lose PA 12 by 4-1. I also have a bad feeling about Allegheny County - i think that Obama will lose PA 14 very narrowly (suburbs put Clinton over the top). Also Clinton picks up another statewide delegate for a 84-74 win.

I don't think that Obama has any kind of shot at PA 4 or PA 18. If he wins PA 15, he should win the state, but I don't think that either will happen. He could win or tie in the state without PA 15 but we would have to keep margins a lot lower in central and western PA than I think that he will.

[J.W. Hamner]

I'm with all the people who say: 9-12% Clinton victory tonight that leads to more seemingly endless soul crushing campaigning that I am unable to tear my eyes from and probably kills kittens.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

ikl: I think you may be right about PA-14. The difference between Dayton and Toledo seems to be that Toledo has more white Democrats. But, Obama's performance among whites seems to be okay.

PA-14 is 23% African-American, and 40% of whites have a college degree or are in college.

And I am with you, I don't think he has a real shot at PA-04 or PA-18, or even PA-15. PA-08 is the reach district that I think he has some chance at.

[litbrit]

Ah hell, I'm an idealist/healer--let me throw in the outside number here:

Clinton wins by 5%.

As for predictions about What Happens Next, the pragmatic voices in my head kick in (yeah, I need some meds to, at this point), and they're telling me Hillary will remain in the race to the bitter end, no matter what.

Besides the unnamed voices, there's the very real voice of Hillary herself, on Larry King last night, saying she plans to stick it out all the way 'till Denver.

And there is another source of mine, an entertainment industry person, whose take on the sentiment among her wealthiest supporters was that if she doesn't win enough delegates the old-fashioned way, she's fine with stealing it. That is just hearsay, of course, and I don't claim to know what, exactly, is meant by the verb "steal" in this context, but I wanted to throw that out there as support for my prediction that this thing will keep going until and unless someone steps in to stop it.

[low-tech cyclist]

Suffolk University says Clinton wins Allegheny County.

[J.W. Hamner]

So Drudge and NRO are reporting leaked exit polls if you are into that sort of thing... I won't say what they are indicating, since I myself prefer a more Zen like calm without unreasonable expectations fed by inherently flawed early exits when awaiting returns... then I break down and look anyway, but maybe you guys are stronger willed than I.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

JW Hammer ... I'm trying to keep the Zen calm. I think the key is to let yourself look at the exit polls, but then remember how little they mean and how often they are wrong.

And that is today's moment of Zen.

[Neil the Ethical Werewolf]

My head feels funny at this point, and it's making me unusually pessimistic. So I'm thinking Clinton by 14.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

That Suffolk poll is at the high end of Clinton margins.

Given the late deciders seem to be splitting 60-40 for Clinton, I think it's going to be just under a 10% loss statewide. And given how the district is drawn, Obama can lose Allegheney County and still win PA-14.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

So, in comparison to Ohio, early exits have him doing better among African-Americans, better among white men, better among seniors. There also seem to be more people earning $100K+ and more with a postgraduate degree. This should offset the fact that there are a huge number of 65+ voters who are likely pro-Clinton.

[ikl]

Don't believe that early exits. They are often way off.