Get 'em here. This is an open thread.
- The first sliver of votes coming in are from Philadelphia County. They have Clinton up 65-35, but of course results like that are heavily dependent on which precincts have reported.
- An hour after polls close, it appears that Obama's margin in Philadelphia county isn't that high, but he's doing better than expected in the T. He's down 58-42 in Erie, which does not bode well fore the less urban parts of the state. Clinton is up 75-25 in Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre).
- Of the four suburban counties, only Delaware has reported, any results, and Obama is up just 51-49 (6% reporting).
- The 1% reported in Allegheney County (Pittsburgh) has Obama ahead, which is contrary to prior polling.
- The suburbs aren't lining up with the exit polls at all. 43-57 in Berks (on the threshold of a +2 for Clinton), 32-68 in Bucks (though with only 1% reporting), 51-49 in Delaware (also 1% reporting). No results in Montgomery. Northampton (Easton) is also 57-43 for Clinton.
- Okay, sorry for the long lag. Montgomery is now 49-51, so depending on how the district is drawn he might have won PA-13. Delaware is 45-55, so PA-07 is probably a loss. Bucks is a massacre at 38-62 (?!). He's ahead in Chester county, but only half the precincts has reported. He's unexpectedly close in other Southeastern towns: 45-55 in York, 46-54 in Lancaster, fairly close in the Harrisburg area.
- Now the suburbs are coming in as expected. Delaware is 55-45 for Obama, Montgomery is 51-49, Chester is 55-45 (?!). Bucks is still a blowout, 37-63. But he won two of the four suburban counties and tied a third.
- We're going to have to wait for a while to figure out delegate counts. But I think it wasn't a very good night. I had predicted +8 for Clinton, but that assumed Obama would win the Philly districts 5-2 and 7-2. I think he won them 4-3 and 7-2, at best, and maybe 4-3 and 6-3. The Pittsburgh district is 10% more African-American than Allegheney county as a whole, so I think he still won that one. However, there appear to be a couple of districts where Clinton may beat my projections by 2 delegates; in PA-12 and PA-17. But again, we won't know until the final tally arrives.
