2008 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Results Map

This is a mostly unsurprising map, as Obama won Philadelphia and some of its suburbs, State College, and the city of Pittsburgh while losing the rest of the state, including suburban Pittsburgh, leading to a loss on Allegheny county. Obama fared worst in Southwestern Pennsylvania and the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre region. He kept the margins unexpectedly close in York, Lancaster, and other counties in the Harrisburg and Philadelphia media markets. On the whole his performance in rural Pennsylvania, with an older electorate, was better than it was in Ohio.

Both teams played hard, God Bless and good night.

Update: my humblest apologies, I read the results in Lancaster and Harrisburg backwards. Lancaster is a heavily Republican county, so what you probably have there is a "rump liberal" Democratic party. I'm cautiously optimistic that Clinton +8 will hold, and perhaps even +6 depending on how PA-13 shakes out, though I think she ended up winning reaching the 70% margin in PA-12 and perhaps elsewhere. If I were Paul Tewes I'd be mostly happy with this result. And in retrospect the decision to spend the final Monday in Pittsburgh instead of Philadelphia wasn't such a bad iea.

Comments

[ikl]

Obama wins CD 14. You win on that one.

My predictions look to be off in CD 11 (4-1 for Clinton if I am guessing right about the county breakdown in the counties split between 11 and 10) so far. It looks like Clinton + 12, though it could be anywhere from +8 to +14. Enough to keep Clinton in it, but not enough to really improve her chances to be nominee.

Lancaster is increasingly exurbs from what I understand these days. Also, lots of population growth and new voters. Most of the Dems there are probably pretty liberal. Same goes for York to a lesser extent, from what I understand.

Union county was the biggest surprise for me, but Bucknell is there, so I guess that might have something to do with it.

[low-tech cyclist]

Looks like Obama won Lancaster and Dauphin counties, in addition to the counties already colored purple on the map.

Looks like 54.7% - 45.3% statewide. I'm happy with that.

[ikl]

Team Obama says it is Clinton +12 or + 10. They usually call these things correctly . . .

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Yeah, I'm trying to figure out how you get +12. My guess is PA-01 could go 4-3 for Obama instead of 5-2, and PA-12 1-4 for Clinton, that gets you 12. But I still think PA-13 might go 4-3. We'll wait and see.

[ikl]

No, CD 11 goes 4-1 and CD 7 goes for Clinton. That puts us at + 12. If neither happen (unlikely), we are at + 8. If they split, then we are at + 10. I haven't seen a breakdown for CD 11, but eyeballing it, it doesn't look good for Obama. Clinton is up 485 or so votes in CD 7 with 8% outstanding (well, not really outstanding, just not allocated to CD 7 yet). So that leans Clinton but could go either way depending on what hasn't been included in the CD 7 total. CD 1 is locked in at 5-2, I think. PA 13 goes 4 to 3 - Mont. Co. saves Obama from a 5 -2 split after NE Philly put him way down.

[ikl]

Obama's website claims + 10. They are usually pretty accurate, so I'd say that this is good evidence for the Obama winning CD 7 or getting a 2-3 split in CD 11 or getting a 2-2 split in CD 10 (which seems unlikely, but looks possible according to the USA today numbers with 80% in), but not more than one out of these three . . .

[joejoejoe]

OT: You make a lot of high information graphics so I thought you might be interested in this cool tool. Gmap Uploader allows you to upload images into the Google Maps API and then allow people to zoom and scroll on the graphic the same as if it was a map. It's a handy thing for zooming in on county data and it would allow you to add more granular data that would otherwise be lost in most visuals. If you zoom into the map, the data is there.

Here's an example using some data related to basketball.

http://gmapuploader.com/iframe/2XA3IrcfV9