The Ted Williams Barack Obama Shift

This map shows the "Krugman Number" for each state, based on SurveyUSA's polling. You can see a substantial advantagefor Obama in the Northeast, Northwest, Upper Midwest, Mountain West, and Southern Atlantic coast, while Clinton  does better in the rest of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Of the states that were at some point deemed competitive during 2004, Obama does better in WA, OR, NV, CO, NM, MN, IA, WI, ME, and NH (72 EVs), while also bringing VA and perhaps NC into the mix (100 EVs). Clinton does better in NJ, PA, WV, and FL (68 EVs), while locking up AR (75 EVs). OH and MI are roughly even.

Thus, if you throw out the downright peculiar results—Obama putting Texas into play, Clinton tying McCain in Tennessee but struggling in Hawaii; the Prairie West open to voting for Obama—the two seem evenly matched, with Obama perhaps having a slight edge, plus the luxury of not needing to win every single one of his states to take the White House.

Comments

[Stephen]

I thought Obama was going to put the south into play.

[ikl]

I've never been a proponent of the "Obama will put the south in play" meme, but I think it's worth noting that there is a New South / Old South divide with Obama. He should help in Virginia and maybe NC and GA (the GA polls here strikes me as off - Obama won 43% of the white vote in the GA primary which is more like VA than AL). But he would get beaten very badly in MS, AL, LA, I think. I don't see Florida as being a good state for him (white southerns + old folks). Clinton does way better in the heavily Scotch-Irish upper south areas. Bill was the last popular Dem in those parts, I guess. If Clinton is the nominee, then the Democrats probably try to play in Arkansas and WV rather than Virginia

The case for Obama in the South is not that he would win in any of the states except those mentioned above but that he would increase African-American turnout which would help downticket. The west is where he makes things really interesting. I also wouldn't mind not having to be playing defense frantically in WI the week before the election like we did in 2000 and 2004 and winning Iowa would also help a lot.

[Joe]

"plus the luxury of not needing to win every single one of his states to take the White House."

Isn't this the big thing? Obama has a ton of ways to get there that Hillary doesn't (CO, VA, IN, NV, NM). Hillary has FL (not going to happen) and OH (just as likely with Obama, and pray she doesn't lose an appreciable Dem swing state like MI, PA, WI or MN).

He's clearly the most electable at this point.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

In order to put the Deep South into play, he would need to get about 30% of the white vote. Now, that's doable ... in South Carolina, where he's campaigned, he's getting 28%. In Georgia 25% (but African-Americans are too small a portion of the sample). But it's a tough road to hoe. There are more promising openings out west.

But man, it'd be really nice if it happened. If the Praries and Texas are truly in play, 400 EVs may be an outside possibility if McCain craters.

[pseudonymous in nc]

Georgia's gone as far as the presidential vote is concerned. Stick a fork in it. Obama might be good down-ticket to put the wind up Saxby Shameless, but the days of GA having conservative Dems and relatively moderate GOPpers in statewide office are over.

NC is a different matter. With Liddy Dole vulnerable, and the demographics of the Triangle changing, there's space to campaign if Obama comes through.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Actually I figure GA has enough professional class moderate Republicans/independents that it might work. After all, it has more college degree holders than Alabama or Mississippi.

Again, this is all unlikely; if Obama has a shot at Georgia, he has a shot at a bazillion other places.

[DTM]

I don't see what is so odd about Texas, Tennessee, and Hawaii. If Obama can put New Mexico and Colorado in play, why not Texas? Tennessee is right next to Arkansas plus has a significant Appalachian region, which makes it a pretty good state for Clinton. Finally, I won't claim to be an expert on Hawaii, but obviously Obama is from there, and Clinton generally struggles outside the Northeast, so it doesn't surprise me there is a big gap.

[DTM]

Incidentally, I agree Obama has a better shot at the Carolinas than Georgia, so if he wins Georgia he is probably cleaning up in general.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

If you include every state, it becomes much more favorable to Obama, because of Texas and the Prairie West. I didn't want to be accused of bias by adding all those states. So I had to throw out Tennessee as well.

[yoyo]

Yeah Georgia seems to be the next one in the VA, NC line of states where increasing urban educated population with immigrants from the north change the outlook longterm. Atlanta also draws the young people in in a way that Alabama or whatever doesn't.