This map is based off of the last three weeks' worth of registration information in the great state of Pennsylvania. What this shows is the number of new Democrats—either party-switchers or new voters—per 1,000 Bush voters in 2004. This gives us a sense of how fast a county's Republican or apathetic electorate is moving away from the GOP. In order, the biggest movement has been in the following regions:
- Philadelphia
- Harrisburg
- The Philadelphia Suburbs and orbiting towns—Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester County, which have been trending blue recently, but also now Berks County (Reading), which is significantly less affluent.
- Northeastern Pennsylvania—Scarnton, Wilkes-Barre, and two more rural counties to their south.
- State College
- Erie
- Lehigh Valley—Bethlehem, Allentown, Easton, etc.
The registration picture appears to favor Barack Obama; more people live in Philly, its suburbs, and State College than SWB, Lehigh Valley, and Erie. But there are two caveats. First, the advantage is very small, perhaps 3% of the primary electorate at most. And Second, the affluent suburban Philly voters might not go for Obama; he won those voters in Texas, but not Ohio.
