Expectations Management

These breathless reports of a tied race in California are getting out of hand, as are those suggesting Obamantum will sweep him to a delegate victory on Super Tuesday. Everybody needs to get a grip here ... Hillary Clinton had a twenty-four point lead among people who had actually cast ballots as recently as ten days ago. To over come that sort of head start, Obama would have to have had an unprecedented GOTV operation in California, and all indications are that while he has a large number of committed volunteers, there aren't enough to effectively canvass the state.

What's more, unless Barack Obama picks up 80% of the undecided voters nationwide, the most likely scenario for Obama still involves a number of narrow losses, while Clinton racks up big wins in states with more delegates. The bear case, on the left, leaves Clinton with a 150+ delegate lead, while the bull case, on the right, gives Obama only a 50 delegate lead for the day (and a 65 delegate lead overall). Neither campaign is likely to land a knockout blow on Tuesday, though Clinton can definitely "stun" the Team Obama.

Comments

[Petey]

"Neither campaign is likely to land a knockout blow on Tuesday"

Tell me the delegate count for Tuesday, and I'll tell you who wins the nomination.

Tuesday is decisive in a way folks have yet to perceive.

[Brian Weatherson]

I don't see why the fact that Clinton was leading several days ago matters, given current polling numbers. If you make three assumptions, then the polls are an accurate prediction of the final result, not a snapshot of the current preferences. The assumptions are

1. When polled, a person who has voted says that they're voting for who they actually voted for, even if they have since changed their mind.
2. A person who has voted is automatically put into the likely voter screen
3. The likely voter screens concerning non-voters are roughly accurate

I suspect all of these are more or less the case. The big worry is whether 3 is true. Though note that if the pollsters are using a voter screen that's too tight, and Obama is currently ahead among people who'll vote on Tuesday, then the polls will understate Obama's support. I guess the more likely scenario is that the screens are too loose and hence they're understating the importance of Obama's likely win among Tuesday voters.

But these are relatively small effects either way I think. In large part I think Clinton's large prior leads are already factored into the polls, and done so reasonably accurately. There is a long discussion of this at Pollster.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Petey: I disagree. If Obama keeps it close (90 delegates or less), he can pull ahead or to a tie over the month of February.

[Petey]

"Petey: I disagree. If Obama keeps it close (90 delegates or less), he can pull ahead or to a tie over the month of February."

I'm in agreement with you.

But if Clinton can pull a bit more than that, the race will effectively be over, though Obama will have no incentive to officially pack it in any time soon.

If Obama pulls in 48% of the delegates, he will obviously still be alive. But if he pulls in 45% of the delegates, not so much.

90 is surmountable. 200 isn't.

And don't forget that while Obama is going to be competitive among superdelegates, I'd be absolutely astonished if he gets a majority of them. He's going to need a clear win among earned delegates to take this thing.

[Kris Overstreet]

I agree with Petey. A Clinton delegate victory of 200 or more is a showstopper for Obama (dammit). 100 to 200 delegates amounts to a wash- it's about what's expected, and it leaves Obama room to make up the difference through the rest of the month.

A Clinton advantage of less than 100 on Feb. 5's primaries amounts to an Obama win- it outperforms expectations and demonstrates weakness on Clinton's part.

And if Obama actually gets more delegates out of Tuesday than Clinton- or if he wins California, which amounts to the same thing- then there will be defections from the Clinton camp, major boosts to Obama's momentum, and pressure by the party on Clinton to drop out.

(Which she won't do, of course, but she'll be hurting pretty bad if, hope of hopes, that happens.)

[Petey]

"100 to 200 delegates amounts to a wash- it's about what's expected, and it leaves Obama room to make up the difference through the rest of the month. A Clinton advantage of less than 100 on Feb. 5's primaries amounts to an Obama win- it outperforms expectations and demonstrates weakness on Clinton's part."

We're really getting beyond the expectations stage.

Even if Clinton only wins 100 more delegates than Obama on Tuesday, she's still going to become the overwhelming favorite for the nomination, though she probably needs closer to a 200 delegate margin to truly lock it up.

Only a third of the total number of delegates are still available in the post-2/5 contests.

If Obama wants the nomination, he'd better actually win the delegate count on Tuesday. Moral victories and spinnable results are for January, not for Super Tuesday.

- The math gets remorseless for the candidate running behind with fewer and fewer delegates to be selected.

- With McCain already sealing things up on the other side, the appetite for a long race on our side is going to dry up quickly. If Obama is running from behind, the kind of Gore and Edwards endorsements he'd need won't be forthcoming.

Tuesday is far more of a 'win or go home' situation than folks are currently realizing.

[Scott Smith]

You guys are absolutely nuts. You do realize that nearly half the states will have not voted after Feb 5? Get a grip. Either way, this thing is far from over unless one of them knocks out the other with a 200+ delegate lead. Doubtful.

[dday]

people aren't seeing that the ballots returned in CA are unusually low for a primary election as of 10 days ago. A LOT of people waited this one out until after South Carolina. The surge of late votes makes that early lead, no more than 70,000 votes by the hard count of absentees from a couple weeks ago, easily insurmountable.

Plus, if you look at delegate allocation in the state, the Congressional districts with even-numbered delegates will almost certainly be a tie, so the 21 districts with odd-numbered delegates will be where the battle is fought. And Obama has a built-in advantage there (almost all the heavily hispanic districts are all 4 delegates, while the South Central LA districts are all 5, for example).

Obama is very likely to win the delegate count on Tuesday, win or lose the popular vote.

[bob h]

A protracted campaign into the Spring could just turn into mutual fratricide as scarce resources are consumed and resentments multiply. This at a time when the opposition is seemingly finished and able to concentrate on the Fall. If tomorrow is at all decisive in any way, I think the loser has to consider falling on his/her sword early in the interests of a coherent Party effort against McCain.

[DivGuy]

These breathless reports of a tied race in California are getting out of hand, as are those suggesting Obamantum will sweep him to a delegate victory on Super Tuesday. Everybody needs to get a grip here ... Hillary Clinton had a twenty-four point lead among people who had actually cast ballots as recently as ten days ago.

One note here. There was a significantly higher rate of early voting in FL, and the Republican polls were perfectly within range. I don't think that adding in the information about early voting adds much - those early voters, it appears, are already in the polls.

As such, the polling really is just showing a lead for Hillary in the low single digits. The polls could be wrong, but I don't think we have enough information to propose revising the polling estimate.

[low-tech cyclist]

Expectations, schmexpectations: after Tuesday, it's about delegates.

The fact is, the Super Tuesday states are on turf that's more favorable to Hillary than Obama. But that's gonna change afterwards.

A 200-delegate edge by Hillary on Wednesday morning is probably insurmountable, just due to the absence of winner-take-all primaries, even at the district level, on the Dem side.

But if Obama can keep his deficit under 100 after tomorrow, he's gonna roll.

In between, who knows?

[Ron]

All you have to do is remember NH to temper poll-based optimism. If Hillary cries again today or Bill turns red in the face and makes some new negative remarks about Obama, that could have enough of an impact on the undecided voters to turn things in her favor. We just have to vote then sit back and watch the returns. The polls tell us that neither Obama nor Hillary are likely to get blown out tomorrow and that's about all they say.