Semi-Bold Prediction Time

Update: people keep hitting this page looking for predictions on the various primaries. But it's not over yet! Go vote! Find your polling place in Ohio! Or find your polling place in Texas! Or Rhode Island! Or Vermont!

I started writing a version of this post the morning of Super Tuesday, when it looked like Barack Obama would trail Hillary Clinton by about 75 pledged delegates at the end of the night. I started again the following morning, when it be came clear that Obama's huge wins in caucuses propelled him to a small lead among pledged delegates. But now, with a win tonight in Maine finalizing a clean sweep of the weekends' contests, and polls showing him up big in Virginia (but that gap will probably narrow), it's time to finish writing this post, now that its conclusion has somehow become counter-counter-intuitive.

It's over. I'm calling it. When all is said and done, Barack Obama will have a Florida-and-Michigan-proof lead among pledged delegates (68 or more) to convince enough superdelegates to earn the nomination.

Even if Clinton manages a narrow loss, tie, or narrow win in Virginia, Barack Obama should win Maryland and DC handily. Combined with a likely big win in one of his home states (Hawaii), he'll have roughly a 100 delegate lead going into the Wisconsin primary. Let's be pessimistic and assume Obama loses by 15%. With 75 pledged delegates, that means his lead will drop to the high 80s.

We're now all the way to the Ohio and Texas primaries, with a total of 334 pledged delegates at stake. To claw back to a draw, Hillary Clinton will have to win a whopping 61% of them. There's no way that can happen; the only state where Clinton has managed a margin that large is Oklahoma. And remember, this is the pessimistic scenario; if Obama wins Virginia by 15% as polls indicate, and can play two out of three between Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to virtual draws, he'll have lead large enough that Clinton will have to pack it in.

I'm not as bold as Jonathan Chait was on January 4th ...

... but the time has come to stick my neck out at least a little bit. It's over.

Update: just to clarify: even though this post claims to be written at 12:01 AM, it went up at 6:55 PM Eastern or thereaboutes; typepad is doing funny things with timestamps.

Comments

[lux]

This could be why HRC fired her campaign manager today.

[Sir Charles]

Good for you Nick -- I'm still waiting for that Edwards endorsement of Obama, so my prognosticating skill remain, shall we say, unproven. I think Obama will run the table on Tuesday.

I am voting in DC in the Chesapeake primary, which feels like the first meaningful vote I've ever cast in presidential politics in my lifetime.

(In the general election voting in DC is simply a question of whether the Dem will get 80 or 90% of the vote.)

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Excellent. Though, I wish people would stop calling it the Chesapeak primary. What are the people in Virginia Beach and Roanoke? Chopped liver?

[Sir Charles]

Nick,

Virginia Beach sits just south of where the Chesapeake empties into the Atlantic -- the Tidewater area -- of which Virginia Beach is a part -- is created bascially degree by the Bay and a couple of large rivers.

Roanoke is in fact chopped liver. No, its liverwurst. I have a couple of clients there and it's a tough area for Democrats --although the economy is rather poor there, so maybe it will break our way a little bit. If you really want to object, do so on behalf of the citizens of Big Stone Gap, which is in Virginia, but I believe is a hair west of Detroit.

[BruceMcF]

Chesapeake Primary? I thought it was the Beltway Primary.

... and as for what are the people in VA Beach and Roanoke ... uh, largely Republican?

[BruceMcF]

BTW, when one campaign sees its original campaign strategy fall apart at the seams, and has to invent a new one, and has to keep doing that, and the other campaign sees its original campaign strategy working ...

... yeah, calling for the one that has its strategy working would be the straightforward call.

[low-tech cyclist]

Potomac or Beltway primary, sure. But Chesapeake? Naaaaah, sorry.

I'd favor that moniker if I could - I live less than a mile from the shores of the Chesapeake - but D.C. is a fair distance from the Bay.

OTOH, the Potomac flows along the boundaries of both states and the District. And the Beltway goes through all three as well. (The southernmost corner of D.C. is just south of the Beltway, just off Jones Point at the south end of Old Town Alexandria.)

[Sir Charles]

ltc,

I was calling it the Potomac Primary before, but it seemed Chesapeake Primary was the favored term. Really DC is only about 45 minutes to the Bay -- when I'm driving and it's not rush hour.

Bruce,

There are a lot of Dems in the Tidewater area, although Virginia Beach is probably one of the more Republican parts of the area -- and, by the way the largest city in Virginia at this point.

[steelhead]

How about the Crab Cake primary?

[Sir Charles]

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm crab cake.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

Here we go.

The Crab Cake 'n' Coal Country primary. That covers everybody.

[Ron]

Well I called it over the morning of the New Hampshire primary, so I'm not making that mistake again. But trends certainly do look very favorable for Obama. However I'm sure Clinton has no qualms about winning the nomination by some combination of superdelegates, gamesmanship at the caucus state conventions, and getting the Michigan and Florida delegations seated even if Obama is otherwise leading the pledge delegates. So I'm going to remain nervous until she concedes or he hits the magic number of delegates needed to win the nomination outright.

[Joe]

I would hold off on making any predictions until the Wisconsin primary. I think Wisconsin will be a "canary in the coal mine" for both Clinton and Obama. It is a predictor as to how either candidate is going to do in OH and PA. If its even or Obama wins big, I think your prediction is golden. If WI goes to Clinton, I think she has a good shot at OH and PA, and a deadlocked convention.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

But she would have to win OH and PA by 15 and TX by 25 or 30 in order to get to a deadlock.

[ikl]

I'm with Ron and Joe for now. But things are certainly moving in the right direction for team Obama.

I'm also starting to wonder whether the Clinton team isn't just massively incompetent (with prominant exceptions such as Michael Wholey (sp?) who was in charge of GOTV for NH). There is really no excuse for getting 31% in Washington, 40% in Maine and not even bothering to campaign in LA or NB. I don't know LA well, but I have to think that some of those people voting for Edwards could have been won over to HRC if she at least pretended to care about the state.

[Joe]

Also keep in mind that if Hilary comes out of March 4 needing to win 65%+ in PA just to pull back close with Obama in pledged delegates, she is going to be under tremendous pressure to concede at that point. At that point, her only path to the nomination will be to try to get enough superdelegates to seat FL and MI -- which of course won't happen until July or so. And everyone knows that a Hilary nomination secured by superdelegates and "questionable" FL/MI delegations at the convention will be an absolute nightmare for the Democrats.

[Joe]

I don't think Clinton needs a tie to deadlock the convention. Both candidates need to be under 2025, and she needs some reason that she should be the nominee. If she does well in OH, WI, PA, and TX, she'll have that reason- she's the candidate of the working class who does well in big state primaries. All she needs are convincing wins in some big states and narrow wins in the rest to have a claim to the nomination and thus to deadlock the convention. At that point, it will be up to the superdelegates.

[AJ]

I think you understimate momentum in persuading Superdelegates, Chris Bowers has a post estimating the actual popular vote so far, and 2 ways favor Clinton 2 favor Obama.

I think Obama is on is way to winning. But if your nightmare scenario came true and Obama got trounced in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas, I can't imagine there being a stampede of elected Super's embracing him.

Joe is right, Wisconsin is the key state to watch. But, Clinton seems much less prepared in all of the post February 5th states, so in essence your right, just not for the reasons you think you are.

[randomkid]

Is it mathematically possible for Obama to win the necessary 2025 delegates outright before the convention, assuming his proportion of superdelegate support stays the same as it is right now? How big would he have to win in places in order for this to occur?

[Sir Charles]

steelhead,

Mark Shields used "crabcake primary" -- you should sue.

[yoyo]

There is just no way in hell hillary wins Wisc. Its upper midwest whites, with substantial student/professional population and african american urban population. The only argument for Hillary is that people like to drink beer there.

[ikl]

Obama arguably should have won NH based on political culture and demographics. But he didn't. We'll see about Wisconsin. I'd be putting serious resources there if I were on the Clinton team - otherwise Obama can concentrate on Ohio in March and Clinton has to try to win everywhere as big as possible.

[Nicholas Beaudrot]

randomkid: in order for Obama to get an outright majority with pledged delegates, he'd have to win something like 80% of the remaining delegates. It can't happen.