It's fitting that our time with Ezra comes to an end right before a special election for the US House in Ohio. Just over two years ago, in my second weekend stint at Ezra's, I produced a nice post-game wrap-up of Paul Hackett's special election in OH-2. Here we are again. I really should have done this earlier, but I didn't pay much attention to the OH-5 race given the heavy Republican tilt in the CQ district ratings. But this race is definitely winnable.
It's true that Bush won this district by a big margin in 2004, and that Weirauch only got 43% against the previous incumbent. But since 2004, the district has been the fastest blue-trending district in Ohio, which has been one of the most blue-trending states in the country. The voters in the Ohio 5th have really soured on Bushism.
Though Bush won the district with something like 61% of the vote, Sherrod Brown (D) fought Mike DeWine (R) to a near 50-50 draw, losing by less than two thousand votes out of a quarter million If you believe that the Brown-DeWine contest was essentially a generic D versus generic R contest, then Weirauch's chances look pretty good. So there is real reason to hope for a win on Tuesday. Turnout will be key, but keep your finger crossed.