Cogitamus

(Recent) History Matters

Apparently, Bruce Bartlett wrote a book length "Slavery! Robert Byrd! Democrats are wrong on race!" screed. Yglesias gives the response from rote. In the comments, Bartlett says he's trying to make the point that if Woodrow Wilson is out of bounds since it's "old news", so it ought to be with Nixon's "southern strategy", Reagan and welfare queens, etc.

Look, folks, this is pretty easy. Sonny Perdue (R) is probably governor of Georgia today because Roy Barnes (D) had the nerve to make a real effort to remove the Confederate battle flag from the state flag. Trent Lott (R) addressed the national conference of the "Concerned Citizen's Council". Until his resignation, Lott held a higher position in the Republican leadership than Robert Byrd. Exactly zero members of the Republican House or Senate caucuses are African-American. I could go on, but you get the point.

Reagan's record on race, or Lott's nostalgia for Strom Thurmond's (D, until Democrats started supporting anti-lynching laws, at which point he switched to R) Dixiecrat campaign, will be an irrelevant bit of political history as soon as the Republican party stops pandering to our worst instincts when it comes to racial prejudice. This is not to say all Republican voters or politicians are racist, but at present, dog-whistle tirades against "city people", etc., and occasional policy measures that have disparate negative impact on African-Americans are built in to the party's political strategy. None of this is news; GOP political operatives freely admit to it.

Strange Sight of the Day

Driving down Nebraska Avenue in DC this morning to pick up a few things for the Christmas meal and was startled to come upon approximately twenty Ron Paul enthusiasts waving signs supportive of the "Ron Paul Revolution."  I realized later that Paul was on with Timmeh at the nearby NBC studios this morning, thus explaining the rare sight of glibertarians on parade within the District.  A little startling before the second cup of coffee though.

   

Cafeteria Conversion?

As a lapsed Catholic of longstanding, I was intrigued to read about Tony Blair's recent conversion to Catholicism.  I have long been accustomed to cafeteria Catholicism among people born into the Church.  Indeed the vast majority of Catholics in the U.S. reject the Church's teaching on issues such as birth control and divorce, but unlike me, feel comfortable at some level remaining in the faith.

But what about someone like Blair?  Here is a a 54 year old man who has a long public record of being pro-choice, who has been supportive of gay rights, and one presumes is comfortable with contraception and divorce.  It seems strange to me to very publicly convert and to embrace a faith where one is in disagreement with several of its major tenets.  Or it it just me?  What is it that made Blair's Anglican faith inadequate for his needs and led him to this late life change?  I feel like I am not understanding something fundamental here.  Any thoughts?

   

A Christmas Reflection

Jeff's got a good post on the significance of the Winter Solstice, and why so many religious beliefs and holy days are connected with it.  When you're huddled with everyone you know in the world in a mud hut while the wolves howl in harmony with the wind, the day that marks the sun's final retreat, the day that sees winter's greatest victory with the promise of more light, more warmth, more crops and fruit and berries and rabbits and deer, that day is an important day indeed.

And yes, that is why Christians celebrate the birth of Jesus at this time of year, even if most scholars agree that he was born at some other point during the year.  As surprising as that might be to some American Christians, it makes a lot of sense that Christians would not have worried too much about historical accuracy when deciding what time of the year to mark the birth of their Christ.

And since this is going to end up fairly Jesusy, I'll put the rest below the fold.

The Music Industry's talking points: "Hey, we're obsolete."

via Matt, the RIAA gives consumers holiday advice:

Watch for Compilations that are “Too Good to Be True": Many pirates make “dream compilation” CDs, comprised of songs by numerous artists on different record labels who would not likely appear on the same legitimate album together.

So, if you see an album with all of your favourite artists on it, performing the songs you love, for the love of God don't buy it -- it's probably pirated!

Seriously, this is their press release.  And in it, they explicitly state that pirates are putting together products that people want more than the legitimate variety.  This, of course, is why teenagers should be sued in to penury, rather than something as revolutionary as the music industry putting together its own compilations that people want to buy.

Related:  The Year the Music Industry Broke.

Unnecessarily Complicating Your Candidate's Strategy In Order To Quiet Your Doubts About Him Is No Way To Go Through Life, Son

It's rough to just pile on Mark Schmitt, but there is still one angle of his recent article on Obama that no one is acknowledging, and it's the worst part of it.  I have no real beef with Schmitt's analysis of the 2009 Congress and what a Democratic president would need to do to get legislation like universal healthcare passed. 

The problem is that in order to agree with Schmitt's understanding of Obama's strategy, a person would need to believe both that Obama is lying about his commitment to bipartisanship and that this is a good thing.

Hit First, And Hit Hard

You can see the problems with Mark Schmitt's defense of Barack Obama's theory of change quite nicely here:

The reason the conservative power structure has been so dangerous, and is especially dangerous in opposition, is that it can operate almost entirely on bad faith. It thrives on protest, complaint, fear: higher taxes, you won't be able to choose your doctor, liberals coddle terrorists, etc. One way to deal with that kind of bad-faith opposition is to draw the person in, treat them as if they were operating in good faith, and draw them into a conversation about how they actually would solve the problem. If they have nothing, it shows.

No, it doesn't show, at least not in national politics today.  I see no reason to believe that the national media would accurately explain that negotiations between Barack Obama and Mitch McConnell broke down because the latter wasn't dealing in good faith (as he surely will not).  A theory of change that assumes that the national media will accurately portray how health policy negotiations failed, and correctly assign responsibility, is not a theory of change I want any part of.

Things I Don't Believe

Billy Shaheen's attacks on Obama are not responsible for the decline of Jeanne Shaheen's Senate candidacy. Rather, as Political Wire points out, "Republicans increasingly say they would vote for Sununu (93% now, 80% in September, and 61% in June)." And I think it's pretty clear why; the surge has taken Iraq out of the news, there are lots of ads running in New Hampshire that will make Republicans feel good about being a Republican, and so forth. The odds that a B-level campaign story involving a candidate's spouse would make this much of a difference is ludicrous.

That said, it's becoming clear that outside of Virginia, Democrats will have to work hard to make big gains in the Senate. The New Mexico Udall seems to be in decent shape, but Shaheen and the Colorado Udall have started to slip a bit. If Dems want to have the resources to put farther flung seats like Alaska and Kentucky into play, those candidates will have to step it up as election day approaches.

Also, we're ten and a half months away from election day. Stop freaking out over polls!

Contract? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Contract!

Check out this comparison from Think Progress and House Democrats:

They haven't stopped the Iraq war, and there's no SCHIP, and they nearly caved on telecom immunity, but the 110th Congress has in fact done a lot of stuff, despite record Republican obstructionism. I somehow completely missed the College Cost Reduction Act, which I assumed had died in the Senate, like everything else in the world. Were there big compromises that made it much different from the original House bill?

Yes, this is a silly paranoid hypothesis

Is it possible that the World Bank is re-evaluating China's PPP GDP measure downwards because if it didn't, in a few years China's GDP (again, in PPP measures) would be larger than the United States?

Given that the new numbers seem to make no sense, according to Dean Baker, it's crying out for other explanations.

Best Political Ads Ever. Seriously.

Oooh, these are good.  Just what I needed after seeing the new Rudy Giuliani holiday ad yesterday, the for-real one in which the former mayor, dressed in a standard WASP-issue Christmas-red sleeveless sweater vest, looks like the radioactive love child of Nosferatu and Mr. Rogers and smiles beatifically while decreeing that Americans must have a Merry Christmas and not think about 9/11 quite as much as we should on regular days, even as surrounding reindeer and small animals frantically bolt in an attempt to escape the awesome power of his Evil Eye.

These bits of lovely were written and directed by brilliant writer/filmmaker Lee Stranahan, and they're all bitingly funny.  I'm rather partial to the subtlety of the first one posted here (Mike Huckabee's Message to Iowa), but ask me ten minutes from now and I'll choose the Mitt Protecting Marriage one or the wonderful Rudy G. send-up.  How about you?

(More funny after the jump.)

In play!

I live in Idaho, so if I gave up hope on Idaho Democrats, I'd be all dressed up during election season with nowhere to go.  I'm biased.  I don't think I can chalk the same bias up to the DCCC, though.  From the Ridenbaugh Press:

The national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which at the moment is well-enough funded to go after Republicans incumbents more than it has to play defense (it has $30.6 million to $2.3 million for its Republican counterpart), today released its list of 40 Republican-held target seats. Two of them are Northwestern: Washington’s 8th, held by Dave Reichert, and Idaho’s 1st, held by Bill Sali.

As I've mentioned before, ID-01's looking at a three-way Democratic primary this year.  My opinions on that contest later. 

Microloans, Macro-interest

Image from Predatory Lending Association

I thought Business Week's article "The Ugly Side of Microlending" had a familiar ring to it:

The transactions are so minuscule they hardly seem worth the bother. The average loan amounts to $257. But for Banco Azteca, a swiftly growing bank affiliated with Latin America's largest household retailer, the small sums represent a torrent of revenue that has caught even its founders by surprise. For three decades, micro-lending was seen as a tool of nonprofit economic development. Now poor people are turning into one of the world's least likely sources of untapped profit, primarily because they will pay interest rates most Americans would consider outrageous, if not usurious.

The interest rates quoted in the article - 50%-120% - are quite outrageous to this American, but they're definitely not unheard of.  What I'm speaking about, of course, is the ubiquitous payday loan, which can charge interest rates of 500% per year.  (Check out the satirical Predatory Lending Association for more alarming statistics, not to mention disturbingly spot-on parody.) 

Village Idiots Redux

Atrios points out the most recent fellating of Matt Drudge by Mark Halperin in Time.   Although I hate like hell to give Halperin the hits, I commend the piece to you for its sheer vacuity, its ur-stupidity, its breathless, infantile admiration for the "Eggman:"

During the electoral endgame, Drudge’s vast influence becomes even greater.  Editors, anchors, executive producers, reporters, and campaigns are instantly aware when Drudge posts something political. And with just days to go before the voting — with everyone so busy, so tired, so manic, and so vulnerable — political and media actors are more easily turned chasing in whatever direction Drudge points them. Or, more specifically, in whatever direction Drudge’s spoon-feeding sources point them.

If Holiday Greetings Were EULAS

Thanks to Ed Foster of The Gripe Line Weblog, I bring you this missive from Mark Mailloux (and here's the definition of EULA):

With the holidays fast approaching and EULAs pretty much a fact of life, please accept -- with no obligation, implied or implicit, on behalf of the wisher or wishee -- my best wishes for an environmentally-conscious, socially-responsible, low-stress, non-addictive, gender-neutral celebration of the winter solstice, practiced within the traditions and/or within the religious or secular belief(s) of your choice and with respect for the traditions and/or religious or secular beliefs of others or for their choice to not practice traditions and/or religious or secular beliefs at all; and for a fiscally-successful, personally-fulfilling, medically-uncomplicated recognition of the onset of what is generally accepted as the new Gregorian calendar year, but with due respect for calendars of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make America great*, and without regard to the race, creed, color, age, physical ability, sexual orientation, political affiliation, or choice of computer operating system of the wisher.

Immigration, Polls, and Narrative

The latest Democracy Corps memo on immigration urges a tack-to-the-right approach. Enforcement only messages do much better than messages involving a comprehensive approach, especially if a candidate brings up citizenship or legalization. In general I've been siding with Democracy Corps' view of the situation over the New Democratic Network, as the NDN's "Look! 60% of the public supports a path to citizenship." approach ignores voter intensity and doesn't compare the message to one a more jingoistic Republican campaign.

But some of the graphs suggest an opening for a different approach. This one, courtesy of Matthew Yglesias, is probably the most heartening. Most of the public seems to be receptive to a message that the country has other priorites that are more important that immigration. Thus it might be possible to win on immigration by pigeon-holing the GOP as a party that is too focused on one issue while we have other big priorities like Iraq, health care, the deficit, etc. This was more or less the approach that Virginia Democrats took in their 2007 elections.

Part of the problem with the current debate over immigration is that the coverage has a "Good for Republicans" subtext. This leads to something of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If Dems can change the frame of the media's coverage of immigration and emphasize how much it's eclipsed other issues for the Republican canndidate, it will help dampen the issue's impact.

A Bitter Huck Is A Better Huck

This is one of those times when the Corner is rather fun to read, with establishment Republicans freaking out about the rise of Mike Huckabee.  Mark Levin says that "Mike Huckabee is now becoming a very divisive figure in the Republican party."  And it's a sentiment I've heard from a bunch of us for a long time, but it's satisfying to hear Rod Dreher say, "Nobody at the elite level seems to expect the economic conservatives to suck it up for the sake of party unity. What does that say about the place of social conservatives in the party all these years?"  A lot of these reflections are inspired by Huckabee coming out and saying stuff like this:

There's a sense in which all these years the evangelicals have been treated very kindly by the Republican Party. They wanted us to be a part of it. And then one day one of us actually runs, and they say, Oh, my gosh. Now they're serious. They don't want to just show up and vote. They actually would want to be a part of the discussion, and really talk about issues that include hunger and poverty and things that ought to be really a concern to every American, Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative.

I was hearing some people say that a defeated Huckabee would still have an awesome future ahead of him as the leader of the social conservative movement.  And I hope it's true.  Because the more that Huckabee, if defeated, becomes the iconic figure of social conservatives being manipulated and abused by the business side of the party, the more he'll rip the theocratic right away from their wealthy masters. The destabilization of that coalition is something America has needed for a very long time. 

Not an enhanced interrogation technique

Belle and Sebastian -- "The Boy with the Arab Strap."

Inspirational verse:

What do you make of the cool set in London?

You're constantly upgrading your hit parade of your ten biggest wanks.

Inversion: Now In Map Form!

Check out this map via The Politico. A week's worth of appearances doesn't really give you a full picture, but you can see Obama making his first trip to Northwest Iowa, while Edwards hits the larger cities and towns that are not his base. Clinton, meanwhile, is exclusively visiting the Eastern half of the state.

Why Americans Hate The Media

Media Matters edition. Key numbers:

The most recent manifestation came in the form of Harvard's Center for Public Leadership National Leadership Index. The ongoing survey included interviews with 1,207 adults nationwide and focused mostly on leadership issues, but also asked people their impression of the media, and specifically, how the media is covering the campaign. The results?

[T]he press receives the lowest ratings of all. This is troubling, because democracies rely on a vibrant, probing, and trusted press. This year, we dig more deeply into the public's views on news media election coverage. The key finding: Americans' lack of confidence in the press stems from deep unease about bias and editorial content.

According to the survey:

• 88 percent agree that the news media focuses too much on trivial rather than important issues.

• 92 percent say that it is important that the news media provide information on candidates' specific policy plans, but 61 percent believe that the news media is not providing enough coverage of policy plans

• 67 percent say that coverage of embarrassing incidents or mistakes that make a candidate look bad is not important, but 68 percent say the news media is providing too much coverage of embarrassing incidents and mistakes

It's Not a Water Sport

I know several of us have been writing about torture, but you can't write/talk about it too much, given the heinousness of it and the glee with which this administration has embraced it (not to mention the indifference or outright support of much of the population).  Perhaps if the MSM had been a little more, ah, inquisitive before Abu Ghraib broke, perhaps if they had, say, done reports on the use of torture in the past, the likelihood of its being used in Iraq, or what, if anything, was being done to prevent such use, then maybe we wouldn't be where we are today.

I know; wishful thinking.

Still, a little enterprising reporting would have at least been responsible.  I remember suggesting to certain journos that such reports might be in order as soon as the U.S. invaded Iraq, only to be told, "but there's no story there."  Indeed.

And now comes an apt comparison to the Spanish Inquisition, from a source it's much harder for torture-lovers to denigrate (though denigrate they will) -- the Armed Forces Journal.

Who Are We?

Seriously, who are we?  What kind of people are we - those of us in the progressive blogosphere, the netroots.  We can tell others who we are and what we believe, and that's a good thing.  The progressive message needs to get out there.

But there's more.  James, traditionally held to be the brother of Jesus, gives us the classic exhortation:

What good is it, dear brothers and sisters, if you say you have faith but don’t show it by your actions? Can that kind of faith save anyone? Suppose you see a brother or sister who has no food or clothing, and you say, “Good-bye and have a good day; stay warm and eat well”—but then you don’t give that person any food or clothing. What good does that do?

So you see, faith by itself isn’t enough. Unless it produces good deeds, it is dead and useless.

Now someone may argue, “Some people have faith; others have good deeds.” But I say, “How can you show me your faith if you don’t have good deeds? I will show you my faith by my good deeds.” (James 2:14-18, NLT)

Here's your chance to show your faith by your deeds, as it were.

Give up already

We on the left have been pretty harsh on the media for not calling the Bush administration liars when they lie. No, we're told the White House "omits", "contradicts", "forgets", but they never lie.

Well, what's good for the goose is good for the gander.  Hillary Clinton and her team need to stop lying about their support, in 2003, of the Iraq War. They supported the war, so just give up on the obfuscation and own it. You've changed your mind as your perception of the war has changed? Excellent. I'd expect nothing less from the President. But stop treating us like idiots. Google exists, and your stated beliefs are matters of public record.

To Read Molly Ivins is to Love Her (Again)

My kind friend Rachel at the ACLU recently sent me a copy of Bill of Wrongs: The Executive Branch's Assault Against America's Fundamental Rights, which was the last book Molly Ivins wrote, along with Lou Dubose.  (Molly passed away in January of this year after a long battle with breast cancer.)

I dove into my present this weekend, and while obvious time constraints (uh, boys, boys, more boys, The Holidays, etc.) mean that despite my deepest longings, I simply cannot devour an entire book in a single sitting the way I used to, I can certainly tell you this: Even the introduction shrieks Pure Molly.  That fierce and fearless voice--it's why we loved her so, and why we miss her so.

Cynthia McKinney to Run as a Green: "The Republicans Have Deceived Us and the Democrats Have Failed Us."

Wow.  Hot off the 'tubes and fresh from my In box: Former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney announces her run for President in 2008. It looks like the Green Party will be represented in Teh Big Election after all. I have to say, it's good to have another woman candidate entering the race, and now that the Traditional Media and rightwing bloviators appear to be running low on cleavage comments and aging slurs, perhaps we can have some substantive discussion of the female candidates' actual positions and plans for the nation. I'll leave it up to readers to analyze Ms. McKinney's platform, strengths, weaknesses, and overall chances.

But I'd be remiss if I didn't muse out loud, Whither Al Gore?  Surely our favorite liberal Oscar and Nobel Prize winner is the ultimate environmentally-conscious candidate. There are a few rumors about the former Vice President's diet and exercise efforts still floating around, with some pundits claiming that any signs of Al turning into a lean, mean fighting machine can only signify one thing: he plans to run a lean, mean (and, obviously, abbreviated) fighting campaign to win what was rightly his in 2000. And quite possibly save the world in the process. But time is running out for the Veep and the polar ice caps alike.

Fasten those seatbelts, gang.  It's going to be a hellaciously bumpy (and, in my opinion, rather thrilling) ride next year.

Also at litbrit.